Rectified Gaussian Scale Mixtures and the Sparse Non-Negative Least Squares Problem

In this paper, we develop a Bayesian evidence maximization framework to solve the sparse non-negative least squares (S-NNLS) problem. We introduce a family of probability densities referred to as the Rectified Gaussian Scale Mixture (R- GSM) to model the sparsity enforcing prior distribution for the solution. The R-GSM prior encompasses a variety of heavy-tailed densities such as the rectified Laplacian and rectified Student- t distributions with a proper choice of the mixing density. We utilize the hierarchical representation induced by the R-GSM prior and develop an evidence maximization framework based on the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. Using the EM based method, we estimate the hyper-parameters and obtain a point estimate for the solution. We refer to the proposed method as rectified sparse Bayesian learning (R-SBL). We provide four R- SBL variants that offer a range of options for computational complexity and the quality of the E-step computation. These methods include the Markov chain Monte Carlo EM, linear minimum mean-square-error estimation, approximate message passing and a diagonal approximation. Using numerical experiments, we show that the proposed R-SBL method outperforms existing S-NNLS solvers in terms of both signal and support recovery performance, and is also very robust against the structure of the design matrix.Comment: Under Review by IEEE Transactions on Signal Processin

Variational Bayesian Inference of Line Spectra

In this paper, we address the fundamental problem of line spectral estimation in a Bayesian framework. We target model order and parameter estimation via variational inference in a probabilistic model in which the frequencies are continuous-valued, i.e., not restricted to a grid; and the coefficients are governed by a Bernoulli-Gaussian prior model turning model order selection into binary sequence detection. Unlike earlier works which retain only point estimates of the frequencies, we undertake a more complete Bayesian treatment by estimating the posterior probability density functions (pdfs) of the frequencies and computing expectations over them. Thus, we additionally capture and operate with the uncertainty of the frequency estimates. Aiming to maximize the model evidence, variational optimization provides analytic approximations of the posterior pdfs and also gives estimates of the additional parameters. We propose an accurate representation of the pdfs of the frequencies by mixtures of von Mises pdfs, which yields closed-form expectations. We define the algorithm VALSE in which the estimates of the pdfs and parameters are iteratively updated. VALSE is a gridless, convergent method, does not require parameter tuning, can easily include prior knowledge about the frequencies and provides approximate posterior pdfs based on which the uncertainty in line spectral estimation can be quantified. Simulation results show that accounting for the uncertainty of frequency estimates, rather than computing just point estimates, significantly improves the performance. The performance of VALSE is superior to that of state-of-the-art methods and closely approaches the Cram\'er-Rao bound computed for the true model order.Comment: 15 pages, 8 figures, accepted for publication in IEEE Transactions on Signal Processin

Sparse Linear Identifiable Multivariate Modeling

In this paper we consider sparse and identifiable linear latent variable (factor) and linear Bayesian network models for parsimonious analysis of multivariate data. We propose a computationally efficient method for joint parameter and model inference, and model comparison. It consists of a fully Bayesian hierarchy for sparse models using slab and spike priors (two-component delta-function and continuous mixtures), non-Gaussian latent factors and a stochastic search over the ordering of the variables. The framework, which we call SLIM (Sparse Linear Identifiable Multivariate modeling), is validated and bench-marked on artificial and real biological data sets. SLIM is closest in spirit to LiNGAM (Shimizu et al., 2006), but differs substantially in inference, Bayesian network structure learning and model comparison. Experimentally, SLIM performs equally well or better than LiNGAM with comparable computational complexity. We attribute this mainly to the stochastic search strategy used, and to parsimony (sparsity and identifiability), which is an explicit part of the model. We propose two extensions to the basic i.i.d. linear framework: non-linear dependence on observed variables, called SNIM (Sparse Non-linear Identifiable Multivariate modeling) and allowing for correlations between latent variables, called CSLIM (Correlated SLIM), for the temporal and/or spatial data. The source code and scripts are available from http://cogsys.imm.dtu.dk/slim/.Comment: 45 pages, 17 figure

Modeling Interdependent and Periodic Real-World Action Sequences

Mobile health applications, including those that track activities such as exercise, sleep, and diet, are becoming widely used. Accurately predicting human actions is essential for targeted recommendations that could improve our health and for personalization of these applications. However, making such predictions is extremely difficult due to the complexities of human behavior, which consists of a large number of potential actions that vary over time, depend on each other, and are periodic. Previous work has not jointly modeled these dynamics and has largely focused on item consumption patterns instead of broader types of behaviors such as eating, commuting or exercising. In this work, we develop a novel statistical model for Time-varying, Interdependent, and Periodic Action Sequences. Our approach is based on personalized, multivariate temporal point processes that model time-varying action propensities through a mixture of Gaussian intensities. Our model captures short-term and long-term periodic interdependencies between actions through Hawkes process-based self-excitations. We evaluate our approach on two activity logging datasets comprising 12 million actions taken by 20 thousand users over 17 months. We demonstrate that our approach allows us to make successful predictions of future user actions and their timing. Specifically, our model improves predictions of actions, and their timing, over existing methods across multiple datasets by up to 156%, and up to 37%, respectively. Performance improvements are particularly large for relatively rare and periodic actions such as walking and biking, improving over baselines by up to 256%. This demonstrates that explicit modeling of dependencies and periodicities in real-world behavior enables successful predictions of future actions, with implications for modeling human behavior, app personalization, and targeting of health interventions.Comment: Accepted at WWW 201