Betting and Belief: Prediction Markets and Attribution of Climate Change

Despite much scientific evidence, a large fraction of the American public doubts that greenhouse gases are causing global warming. We present a simulation model as a computational test-bed for climate prediction markets. Traders adapt their beliefs about future temperatures based on the profits of other traders in their social network. We simulate two alternative climate futures, in which global temperatures are primarily driven either by carbon dioxide or by solar irradiance. These represent, respectively, the scientific consensus and a hypothesis advanced by prominent skeptics. We conduct sensitivity analyses to determine how a variety of factors describing both the market and the physical climate may affect traders' beliefs about the cause of global climate change. Market participation causes most traders to converge quickly toward believing the "true" climate model, suggesting that a climate market could be useful for building public consensus.Comment: All code and data for the model is available at http://johnjnay.com/predMarket/. Forthcoming in Proceedings of the 2016 Winter Simulation Conference. IEEE Pres

Nuclear Liquid Drop Model with the Surface-Curvature Terms: New Perspectives for the Hyperdeformation Studies

Nuclear liquid drop model is revisited and an explicit introduction of the surface-curvature terms is presented. The corresponding parameters of the extended classical energy formula are adjusted to the contemporarily known nuclear binding energies and fission barrier heights. Using 2766 binding energies of nuclei with $Z\geq 8$ and $N\geq 8$ it is shown that the performance of the new approach is improved by a factor of about 6, compared to the previously published liquid drop model results, in terms of both the masses (new r.m.s. deviation $= 0.698$ MeV) and the fission barriers (new r.m.s. deviation of the fission barriers of isotopes with $Z> 70$ is $<\delta V_B> = 0.88$ MeV). The role of the curvature terms and their effects on the description of the experimental quantities are discussed in detail; for comparison the parameters of the more 'traditional' approaches are re-fitted taking into account the nuclear masses known today and the performances of several variants of the model are compared. The isospin dependence in the new description of the barriers is in a good agreement with the extended Thomas-Fermi approach; it also demonstrates a good qualitative agreement with the fission life-time systematics tested on the long chain of Fermium isotopes known experimentally. The new approach offers also a very high stability in terms of the extrapolation from the narrower range of nuclides to a more extended one - a property of particular interest for the contemporary exotic beam projects: the corresponding properties are illustrated and discussed.Comment: 25 pages in LaTeX and 20 figures in eps forma

Interest Arbitration, Outcomes, and the Incentive to Bargain

This study develops a model of bargaining that demonstrates that an interest arbitration procedure will encourage negotiated settlements to the extent that risk aversion dominates the preferences of the parties and there is uncertainty regarding the arbitrator\u27s behavior. The authors conclude that it is likely that risk aversion does dominate preferences, but the evidence is not conclusive. They also argue that uncertainty may be reduced over time for various reasons, leading to increased use of arbitration and a convergence between the terms of negotiated and arbitrated agreements

The dynamical balance, transport and circulation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current

The physical ingredients of the ACC circulation are reviewed. A picture of thecirculation is sketched by means of recent observations of the WOCE decade. Wepresent and discuss the role of forcing functions (wind stress, surfacebuoyancy flux) in the balance of the (quasi)-zonal flow, the meridionalcirculation and their relation to the ACC transport. Emphasis will be on theinterrelation of the zonal momentum balance and the meridional circulation, theimportance of diapycnal mixing and eddy processes. Finally, new model conceptsare described: a model of the ACC transport dependence on wind stress andbuoyancy flux, based on linear wave theory; and a model of the meridionaloverturning of the Southern Ocean, based on zonally averaged dynamics with eddyparameterization

Non-assimilated tidal modeling of the South China Sea

AbstractThe tides in the South China Sea were simulated using an established tidal model, with the purpose to evaluate if non-assimilated modeling of the area is feasible. Simulations were done for the locally dominating diurnal (K1) and semi-diurnal (M2) tidal constituents, and the model was shown to provide reasonably accurate results in terms of both elevations and levels of dissipation. However, this was only the case when a realistic tidal conversion parameterization was included in the model, and it is suggested that tidal conversion is a missing process in other model efforts of the area. Compared to observations, the modeled dissipation levels were slightly overestimated when integrated over the entire domain, and far larger in the model at topography with a slope which is supercritical for the baroclinic tidal waves. A crude, empirical correction of the tidal conversion rates at supercritical topography is suggested and implemented in the model and shown to improve the model results in terms of both elevations and dissipation rates. It is concluded that the presented model set up is suitable for investigations of how perturbations, e.g., future sea-level rise, will affect the tidal dynamics in the South China Sea