A De-biased Direct Question Approach to Measuring Consumers' Willingness to Pay

Knowledge of consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) is a prerequisite to profitable price-setting. To gauge consumers' WTP, practitioners often rely on a direct single question approach in which consumers are asked to explicitly state their WTP for a product. Despite its popularity among practitioners, this approach has been found to suffer from hypothetical bias. In this paper, we propose a rigorous method that improves the accuracy of the direct single question approach. Specifically, we systematically assess the hypothetical biases associated with the direct single question approach and explore ways to de-bias it. Our results show that by using the de-biasing procedures we propose, we can generate a de-biased direct single question approach that is accu-rate enough to be useful for managerial decision-making. We validate this approach with two studies in this paper.Comment: Market Research, Pricing, Demand Estimation, Direct Estimation, Single Question Approach, Choice Experiments, Willingness to Pay, Hypothetical Bia

Please, talk about it! When hotel popularity boosts preferences

Many consumers post on-line reviews, affecting the average evaluation of products and services. Yet, little is known about the importance of the number of reviews for consumer decision making. We conducted an on-line experiment (n= 168) to assess the joint impact of the average evaluation, a measure of quality, and the number of reviews, a measure of popularity, on hotel preference. The results show that consumers' preference increases with the number of reviews, independently of the average evaluation being high or low. This is not what one would expect from an informational point of view, and review websites fail to take this pattern into account. This novel result is mediated by demographics: young people, and in particular young males, are less affected by popularity, relying more on quality. We suggest the adoption of appropriate ranking mechanisms to fit consumer preferences. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd

Experimental designs for environmental valuation with choice-experiments: A Monte Carlo investigation

We review the practice of experimental design in the environmental economics literature concerned with choice experiments. We then contrast this with advances in the field of experimental design and present a comparison of statistical efficiency across four different experimental designs evaluated by Monte Carlo experiments. Two different situations are envisaged. First, a correct a priori knowledge of the multinomial logit specification used to derive the design and then an incorrect one. The data generating process is based on estimates from data of a real choice experiment with which preference for rural landscape attributes were studied. Results indicate the D-optimal designs are promising, especially those based on Bayesian algorithms with informative prior. However, if good a priori information is lacking, and if there is strong uncertainty about the real data generating process - conditions which are quite common in environmental valuation - then practitioners might be better off with conventional fractional designs from linear models. Under misspecification, a design of this type produces less biased estimates than its competitors

Uncertainty in Spatial Duopoly with Possibly Asymmetric Distributions: a State Space Approach

In spatial competition firms are likely to be uncertain about consumer locations when launching products either because of shifting demograph- ics or of asymmetric information about preferences. Realistically distri- butions of consumer locations should be allowed to vary over states and need not be uniform. However, the existing literature models location uncertainty as an additive shock to a uniform consumer distribution. The additive shock restricts uncertainty to the mean of the consumers loca- tions. We generalize this approach to a state space model in which a vector of parameters gives rise to different distributions of consumer tastes in dif- ferent states, allowing other moments (besides the mean) of the consumer distribution to be uncertain. We illustrate our model with an asymmetric consumer distribution and obtain a unique subgame perfect equilibrium with an explicit, closed-form solution. An equilibrium existence result is then given for the general case. For symmetric distributions, the unique subgame perfect equilibrium in the general case can be described by a simple closed-form solution.Location, Product Differentiation, Uncertainty, Hotelling

Suit the action to the word, the word to the action: Hypothetical choices and real decisions in Medicare Part D

In recent years, consumer choice has become an important element of public policy. One reason is that consumers differ in their tastes and needs, which they can express most easily through their own choices. Elements that strengthen consumer choice feature prominently in the design of public insurance markets, for instance in the United States in the recent introduction of prescription drug coverage for older individuals via Medicare Part D. For policy makers who design such a market, an important practical question in the design phase of such a new program is how to deduce enrollment and plan selection preferences prior to its introduction. In this paper, we investigate whether hypothetical choice experiments can serve as a tool in this process. We combine data from hypothetical and real plan choices, elicited around the time of the introduction of Medicare Part D. We first analyze how well the hypothetical choice data predict willingness to pay and market shares at the aggregate level. We then analyze predictions at the individual level, in particular how insurance demand varies with observable characteristics. We also explore whether the extent of adverse selection can be predicted using hypothetical choice data alone

A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the state of macroeconomic modeling and the use of macroeconomic models in policy analysis has come under heavy criticism. Macroeconomists in academia and policy institutions have been blamed for relying too much on a particular class of macroeconomic models. This paper proposes a comparative approach to macroeconomic policy analysis that is open to competing modeling paradigms. Macroeconomic model comparison projects have helped produce some very influential insights such as the Taylor rule. However, they have been infrequent and costly, because they require the input of many teams of researchers and multiple meetings to obtain a limited set of comparative findings. This paper provides a new approach that enables individual researchers to conduct model comparisons easily, frequently, at low cost and on a large scale. Using this approach a model archive is built that includes many well-known empirically estimated models that may be used for quantitative analysis of monetary and fiscal stabilization policies. A computational platform is created that allows straightforward comparisons of models’ implications. Its application is illustrated by comparing different monetary and fiscal policies across selected models. Researchers can easily include new models in the data base and compare the effects of novel extensions to established benchmarks thereby fostering a comparative instead of insular approach to model development

Input Production Joint Venture

In many industries it is quite common to observe firms delegating the production of essential inputs to independent ventures jointly established with competing rivals. The diffusion of this arrangement and the favourable stance of competition authorities call for the assessment of the social and private desirability of Input Production Joint Ventures (IPJV), which represent a form of input production cooperation, not investigated so far. IPJV can be seen as an intermediate organizational setting lying between the two extremes of vertical integration and vertical separation. Our investigation is based on an oligopoly model with horizontally differentiated goods. We characterize the conditions under which IPJV is privately optimal finding that firms’ incentives may be welfare detrimental. We also provide a rationale for the empirical relevance of IPJV both in terms of its ability to survive and in terms of disengagement incentives.Input Production Joint Venture, Horizontal Differentiation, Oligopoly

Economic Evaluation and Biodiversity Conservation of Animal Genetic Resources

Rapidly declining biodiversity has made international and national policies focus on the question of how best to protect genetic resources. Loss of biodiversity does not only concern wildlife, but equally affects agriculturally used species. These species, of foremost importance for the subsistence of humankind, are subject to pressures sometimes similar and sometimes very distinct from those of their wild counterparts. And so are the losses implied by this decline in diversity. This handbook was conceived within the project Sustainable conservation of animal genetic resources in marginal rural areas: Integrating molecular genetics, socio-economics and geostatistical approaches (ECONOGENE – EC-QLK5-CT-2001-02461) to review and design methods that can serve as a basis to guide conservation policies for livestock breeds at risk of extinction. It is part of the broader effort of a multidisciplinary research team assessing the diversity of European sheep and goat breeds. The final goal of the project is to assess the impact of current and future policies on these breeds. --

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND EFFICIENCY IN PUBLIC EXPENDITURE

Benefit-Cost Analysis involves several steps: development of a program information structure (product categories), estimating the production function, pricing benefits and costs, adjusting for opportunity costs, choice of investment criteria, and incorporating uncertainty. Each step involves conflicts of interest that can only be resolved by political (collective) choice of property rights assigning opportunities to the various interest groups. The rules of benefit-cost analysis for public expenditure are equivalent of private property rights established by legislative and court decisions for the market economy. The traditional separation of technical analysis and political choice is not longer tenable. Theory and practice point to a more interactive, iterative relationship between analysts and politicians.Public Economics,