Design and modelling of variability tolerant on-chip communication structures for future high performance system on chip designs

The incessant technology scaling has enabled the integration of functionally complex System-on-Chip (SoC) designs with a large number of heterogeneous systems on a single chip. The processing elements on these chips are integrated through on-chip communication structures which provide the infrastructure necessary for the exchange of data and control signals, while meeting the strenuous physical and design constraints. The use of vast amounts of on chip communications will be central to future designs where variability is an inherent characteristic. For this reason, in this thesis we investigate the performance and variability tolerance of typical on-chip communication structures. Understanding of the relationship between variability and communication is paramount for the designers; i.e. to devise new methods and techniques for designing performance and power efficient communication circuits in the forefront of challenges presented by deep sub-micron (DSM) technologies. The initial part of this work investigates the impact of device variability due to Random Dopant Fluctuations (RDF) on the timing characteristics of basic communication elements. The characterization data so obtained can be used to estimate the performance and failure probability of simple links through the methodology proposed in this work. For the Statistical Static Timing Analysis (SSTA) of larger circuits, a method for accurate estimation of the probability density functions of different circuit parameters is proposed. Moreover, its significance on pipelined circuits is highlighted. Power and area are one of the most important design metrics for any integrated circuit (IC) design. This thesis emphasises the consideration of communication reliability while optimizing for power and area. A methodology has been proposed for the simultaneous optimization of performance, area, power and delay variability for a repeater inserted interconnect. Similarly for multi-bit parallel links, bandwidth driven optimizations have also been performed. Power and area efficient semi-serial links, less vulnerable to delay variations than the corresponding fully parallel links are introduced. Furthermore, due to technology scaling, the coupling noise between the link lines has become an important issue. With ever decreasing supply voltages, and the corresponding reduction in noise margins, severe challenges are introduced for performing timing verification in the presence of variability. For this reason an accurate model for crosstalk noise in an interconnection as a function of time and skew is introduced in this work. This model can be used for the identification of skew condition that gives maximum delay noise, and also for efficient design verification

Assessment of underlying capacity mechanism studies for Greece

The increased electricity production from variable sources in the EU combined with the overall decline in demand in recent years, have raised concerns about the security of electricity supply, in general, and in particular about generation adequacy and flexibility, prompting some Member States to consider new public interventions, the so-called capacity remuneration mechanisms. This work presents a review of the underlying capacity mechanism studies for Greece based on European best practices to highlight the latest developments and current trends.JRC.C.3-Energy Security, Distribution and Market

Building damage scenarios based on exploitation of Housner Intensity derived from finite faults ground motion simulations

In this paper earthquake damage scenarios for residential buildings (about 4200 units) in Potenza (Southern Italy) have been estimate adopting a probabilistic approach that involves complex source models, site effects, building vulnerability assessment and damage estimation through Damage Probability Matrices (DPMs). The studied area experienced several destructive earthquakes in historical and recent times. Several causative faults of single seismic events, with magnitude up to 7, are known to be close to the town. A seismic hazard approach based on finite faults ground motion simulation techniques has been used to identify the sources producing the maximum expected ground motion at Potenza and to generate a set of ground motion time histories to be used for building damage scenarios. Additionally, site effects, evaluated in the framework of the DPC-INGV S3 project through amplification factors of Housner intensity (IH), have been combined with the bedrock values provided by hazard assessment. Furthermore, a new relationship between IH and macroseismic intensity in terms of EMS98 has been developed. This relationship has been used to convert the Probability Density Functions (PDFs) for IH obtained from synthetic seismograms and convolved by the site effects coefficients into PDFs for EMS98 intensity. Finally, the DPMs approach has been applied to estimate the damage levels of the residential buildings in the urban area of Potenza

Building damage scenarios based on exploitation of Housner intensity derived from finite faults ground motion simulations

In this paper earthquake damage scenarios for residential buildings (about 4200 units) in Potenza (Southern Italy) have been estimated adopting a novel probabilistic approach that involves complex source models, site effects, building vulnerability assessment and damage estimation through Damage Probability Matrices. Several causative faults of single seismic events, with magnitude up to 7, are known to be close to the town. A seismic hazard approach based on finite faults ground motion simulation techniques has been used to identify the sources producing the maximum expected ground motion at Potenza and to generate a set of ground motion time histories to be adopted for building damage scenarios. Additionally, site effects, evaluated in a previouswork through amplification factors of Housner intensity, have been combined with the bedrock values provided by hazard assessment. Furthermore, a new relationship between Housner and EMS-98 macroseismic intensity has been developed. This relationship has been used to convert the probability mass functions of Housner intensity obtained from synthetic seismograms amplified by the site effects coefficients into probability mass function of EMS-98 intensity. Finally, the Damage Probability Matrices have been applied to estimate the damage levels of the residential buildings located in the urban area of Potenza. The proposed methodology returns the full probabilistic distribution of expected damage, thus avoiding average damage index or uncertainties expressed in term of dispersion indexes

Practicable methodologies for delivering comprehensive spatial soils information

This thesis is concerned with practicable methodologies for delivering comprehensive spatial soil information to end-users. There is a need for relevant spatial soil information to complement objective decision-making for addressing current problems associated with soil degradation; for modelling, monitoring and measurement of particular soil services; and for the general management of soil resources. These are real-world situations, which operate at spatial scales ranging from field to global scales. As such, comprehensive spatial soil information is tailored to meet the spatial scale specifications of the end user, and is of a nature that fully characterises the whole-soil profile with associated prediction uncertainties, and where possible, both the predictions and uncertainties have been independently validated. ‘Practicable’ is an idealistic pursuit but nonetheless necessary because of a need to equip land-holders, private-sector and non-governmental stakeholders and, governmental departments including soil mapping agencies with the necessary tools to ensure wide application of the methodologies to match the demand for relevant spatial soil information. Practicable methodologies are general and computationally efficient; can be applied to a wide range of soil attributes; can handle variable qualities of data; and are effective when working with very large datasets. In this thesis, delivering comprehensive spatial soil information relies on coupling legacy soil information (principally site observations made in the field) with Digital Soil Mapping (DSM) which comprises quantitative, state-of-the-art technologies for soil mapping. After the General Introduction, a review of the literature is given in Chapter 1 which describes the research context of the thesis. The review describes soil mapping first from a historical perspective and rudimentary efforts of mapping soils and then tracks the succession of advances that have been made towards the realisation of populated, digital spatial soil information databases where measures of prediction certainties are also expressed. From the findings of the review, in order to deliver comprehensive spatial soil information to end-users, new research was required to investigate: 1) a general method for digital soil mapping the whole-profile (effectively pseudo-3D) distribution of soil properties; 2) a general method for quantifying the total prediction uncertainties of the digital soil maps that describe the whole-profile distribution of soil properties; 3) a method for validating the whole-profile predictions of soil properties and the quantifications of their uncertainties; 4) a systematic framework for scale manipulations or upscaling and downscaling techniques for digital soil mapping as a means of generating soil information products tailored to the needs of soil information users. Chapters 2 to 6 set about investigating how we might go about doing these with a succession of practicable methodologies. Chapter 2 addressed the need for whole-profile mapping of soil property distribution. Equal-area spline depth functions coupled with DSM facilitated continuous mapping the lateral and vertical distribution of soil properties. The spline function is a useful tool for deriving the continuous variation of soil properties from soil profile and core observations and is also suitable to use for a number of different soil properties. Generally, mapping the continuous depth function of soil properties reveals that the accuracy of the models is highest at the soil surface but progressively decreases with increasing soil depth. Chapter 3 complements the investigations made in Chapter 2 where an empirical method of quantifying prediction uncertainties from DSM was devised. This method was applied for quantifying the uncertainties of whole-profile digital soil maps. Prediction uncertainty with the devised empirical method is expressed as a prediction interval of the underlying model errors. The method is practicable in the sense that it accounts for all sources of uncertainty and is computationally efficient. Furthermore the method is amenable in situations where complex spatial soil prediction functions such as regression kriging approaches are used. Proper evaluation of digital soil maps requires testing the predictions and the quantification of the prediction uncertainties. Chapter 4 devised two new criteria in which to properly evaluate digital soil maps when additional soil samples collected by probability sampling are used for validation. The first criterion addresses the accuracy of the predictions in the presence of uncertainties and is the spatial average of the statistical expectation of the Mean Square Error of a simulated random value (MSES). The second criterion addresses the quality of the uncertainties which is estimated as the total proportion of the study area where the (1-α)-prediction interval (PI) covers the true value (APCP). Ideally these criteria will be coupled with conventional measures of map quality so that objective decisions can be made about the reliability and subsequent suitability of a map for a given purpose. It was revealed in Chapter 4, that the quantifications of uncertainty are susceptible to bias as a result of using legacy soil data to construct spatial soil prediction functions. As a consequence, in addition to an increasing uncertainty with soil depth, there is increasing misspecification of the prediction uncertainties. Chapter 2, 3, and 4 thus represent a framework for delivering whole-soil profile predictions of soil properties and their uncertainties, where both have been assessed or validated across mapping domains at a range of spatial scales for addressing field, farm, regional, catchment, national, continental or global soil-related problems. The direction of Chapters 5 and 6 however addresses issues specifically related to tailoring spatial soil information to the scale specifications of the end-user through the use of scale manipulations on existing digital soil maps. What is proposed in Chapter 5 is a scaling framework that takes into account the scaling triplet of digital soil maps—extent, resolution, and support—and recommends pedometric methodologies for scale manipulation based on the scale entities of the source and destination maps. Upscaling and downscaling are descriptors for moving up to coarser or down to finer scales respectively but may be too general for DSM. Subsequently Fine-gridding and coarse-gridding are operations where the grid spacing changes but support remains unchanged. Deconvolution and convolution are operations where the support always changes, which may or may not involve changing the grid spacing. While disseveration and conflation operations occur when the support and grid size are equal and both are then changed equally and simultaneously. There is an increasing richness of data sources describing the physical distribution of the Earth’s resources with improved qualities and resolutions. To take advantage of this, Chapter 6 devises a novel procedure for downscaling, involving disseveration. The method attempts to maintain the mass balance of the fine scaled predictions with the available coarse scaled information, through an iterative algorithm which attempts to reconstruct the variation of a property at a prescribed fine scale through an empirical function using environmental or covariate information. One of the advantages associated with the devised method is that soil property uncertainties at the coarse scale can be incorporated into the downscaling algorithm. Finally Chapter 7 presents a synthesis of the investigations made in Chapters 2 to 6 and summarises the pertinent findings. Directly from the investigations carried out during this project there are opportunities for further work; both in terms of addressing shortcomings that were highlighted but not investigated in the thesis, and more generally for advancing digital soil mapping to an operational status and beyond

Ground motion scenarios for the 1997 Colfiorito, central Italy, earthquake

In this paper we report the results of several investigations aimed at evaluating ground motion scenarios for the September 26th, 1997 Colfiorito earthquake (Mw 6.0, 09:40 UTC). We model the observed variability of ground motions through synthetic scenarios which simulate an earthquake rupture propagating at constant rupture velocity (2.7 km/s) and the inferred directivity. We discuss the variability of kinematic source parameters, such as the nucleation position and the rupture velocity, and how it influences the predicted ground motions and it does not account for the total standard deviation of the empirical predictive model valid for the region. Finally, we used the results from the scenario studies for the Colfiorito earthquake to integrate the probabilistic and deterministic approaches for seismic hazard assessment

Operational progression of digital soil assessment for agricultural growth in Tasmania, Australia

Tasmania, Australia, is currently undergoing a period of agricultural expansion through the development of new irrigation schemes across the State, primarily to stimulate the economy and ensure future food security. ‘Operational Progression of Digital Soil Assessment (DSA) for Agricultural Growth in Tasmania, Australia’ presents the adaptation and operationalisation of quantitative approaches for regional land evaluation within these schemes, specifically applied Digital Soil Mapping (DSM) to inform a land suitability evaluation for 20 different agricultural crops, and ultimately a spatial indication of the State’s agricultural versatility and capital. DSM had not previously been applied or tested in Tasmania; the research examines and validates DSM approaches with respect to the State’s unique and complex soils and biophysical interactions with climate and terrain, and how these apply to various agricultural land uses. The thesis is a major contribution to the methodology and development of one of the first major operational DSA programs in Australia, and forms a framework for this type of DSM approach to be used in future operational land evaluation elsewhere

Lessons Learned and Next Steps in Energy Efficiency Measurement and Attribution: Energy Savings, Net to Gross, Non-Energy Benefits, and Persistence of Energy Efficiency Behavior

This white paper examines four topics addressing evaluation, measurement, and attribution of direct and indirect effects to energy efficiency and behavioral programs: Estimates of program savings (gross); Net savings derivation through free ridership / net to gross analyses; Indirect non-energy benefits / impacts (e.g., comfort, convenience, emissions, jobs); and, Persistence of savings

High resolution spatial variability in spring snowmelt for an Arctic shrub-tundra watershed

Arctic tundra environments are characterized by spatially heterogeneous end-of-winter snow cover because of high winds that erode, transport and deposit snow over the winter. This spatially variable end-of-winter snow cover subsequently influences the spatial and temporal variability of snowmelt and results in a patchy snowcover over the melt period. Documenting changes in both snow cover area (SCA) and snow water equivalent (SWE) during the spring melt is essential for understanding hydrological systems, but the lack of high-resolution SCA and SWE datasets that accurately capture micro-scale changes are not commonly available, and do not exist for the Canadian Arctic. This study applies high-resolution remote sensing measurements of SCA and SWE using a fixed-wing Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) to document snowcover changes over the snowmelt period for an Arctic tundra headwater catchment. Repeat measurements of SWE and SCA were obtained for four dominant land cover types (tundra, short shrub, tall shrub, and topographic drift) to provide observations of spatially distributed snowmelt patterns and basin-wide declines in SWE. High-resolution analysis of snowcover conditions over the melt reveal a strong relationship between land cover type, snow distribution, and snow ablation rates whereby shallow snowpacks found in tundra and short shrub regions feature rapid declines in SWE and SCA and became snow-free approximately 10 days earlier than deeper snowpacks. In contrast, tall shrub patches and topographic drift regions were characterized by large initial SWE values and featured a slow decline in SCA. Analysis of basin-wide declines in SCA and SWE reveal three distinct melt phases characterized by 1) low melt rates across a large area resulting in a minor change in SCA, but a very large decline in SWE with, 2) high melt rates resulting in drastic declines in both SCA and SWE, and 3) low melt rates over a small portion of the basin, resulting in little change to either SCA or SWE. The ability to capture high-resolution spatio-temporal changes to tundra snow cover furthers our understanding of the relative importance of various land cover types on the snowmelt timing and amount of runoff available to the hydrological system during the spring freshet