Machine Learning in Stock Price Prediction Using Long Short-Term Memory Networks and Gradient Boosted Decision Trees

Quantitative analysis has been a staple of the financial world and investing for many years. Recently, machine learning has been applied to this field with varying levels of success. In this paper, two different methods of machine learning (ML) are applied to predicting stock prices. The first utilizes deep learning and Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTMs), and the second uses ensemble learning in the form of gradient tree boosting. Using closing price as the training data and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) as the error metric, experimental results suggest the gradient boosting approach is more viable. Honors Symposium: ML is an unbelievably powerful tool, and the application of ML must be subject to our biblical calling as stewards. As technology progresses to make us increasingly productive, we must direct what we produce towards ends that glorify God. Just as importantly, we must be vigilant to the great temptation to become lost in decadence. ML has wildly successful applications in the financial world that far surpass the scope of this paper, but we cannot lose sight of He who provides. A firm grounding in scripture and a healthy understanding of Providence should be enough to keep those of us who pursue the blessing of technology from becoming lost in our own grandeur

Gender Imbalance In Vietnam: Problems And Solutions

In the modern world gender imbalance occurs on a global scale and it is especially aggravated in Asian countries. This phenomenon is understood as a change in the sexual structure of the population in the unfavourable direction, which depends on many factors. When examining the problem of gender imbalance, demographers consider the unbalanced sex ratio at birth to be the most important factor. In Vietnam over the last ten years, the imbalanced sex ratio at birth has been growing with inevitable consequences and is expanding throughout the country. Although the Vietnam government has taken into account the current situation and its decisions in China, India, pursuing policies aimed to its prevention, but the situation of gender imbalance has not been controlled yet. In recent years, the consequences of the gender imbalance for the country's socio-economic development and safe life of the population have been noted. The purpose of this article is to examine the current state of gender imbalance in Vietnam and to propose comprehensive measures of solving this problem in the future, in the context of implementing the third of the eight Millennium Development Goals in the UN Declaration, that is Promoting Gender Equality and Empowering Women. Data and methods: This article is based on the information from the officially published materials and statistical data of Vietnam, international organizations and other countries. While studying and analysing data and discussing the problems, the statistical, mathematical and sociological methods of research are used

Confluence and consequence: globalisation, viscosities and transformation of HIV risk environments in Vietnam

This thesis shows that illicit drug consumers in Vietnam who administer product via injection are vulnerable actors in a paradoxical global/local phenomenon rooted in historical complexities of globalisation. Therefore, responsibility for HIV risks should be shifted upstream from the level of individuals toward institutional processes that manufacture environments of harm. At the global level, the UN Milennium Development Goals do not provide the required level of leadership on HIV prevention for drug injectors. Association between globalisation, opiates and blood-born disease in Vietnam is not new and is inseparable from historical transportation, migration and trade processes. As a key locale in the Cold War, after 1975, and 1979 in particular, Vietnam was 'at distance' from increasing intra-regional trade flows across its western frontiers and northern border. As a consequence, it was hermetically sealed to nearby HIV sub-epidemics unfolding among heroin consumers. A latent HIV risk environment awaited Vietnam should geopolitical grievances be resolved and it became re-integrated among Mekong sub-regional flows. Neo-liberal financial flows returned to Vietnam in 1993 and the Mekong was spanned in 1994. In 1995 it normalised relations with the United States, joined ASEAN and announced the resurrection of transportation linkages across the northern border with China. Mid-decade, its borders were made more porous at the same time as local opium production was reduced as part of the UN global programme against drugs. Exploiting enhanced trans-boundary mobilities intended for goods, opiate traffickers quickly transformed Vietnam into a transit nation and a market for high-quality heroin well suited to a youthful population experiencing socio-economic change including new consumerism. Following traditional pathways, a radical transformation in the fluidity of drug consumption environs ensued, enabling more widespread and efficient flows of blood across complex boundaries. Analysis reveals that a spatio-temporal confluence of structural factors has created conditions which enabled this process. These factors are overlapping and they range from global influences, such as the collapse of the USSR, to micro-economic reform such as privatisation and modernisation of the domestic pharmaceutical sector. The transformation in opiate consumption from injecting opium to heroin injecting occurred faster than expert-driven prevention systems responded, even in time and space where this was most foreseeable. Although the opiate transformation was highly predictable, there has been a time-lag of almost a decade between risk transformations and policy responses equated with harm reduction principles. The thesis shows that blame for HIV sub-epidemics in Vietnam should not be attributed to vulnerable youths and young adults. Expert-driven economic transition associated with global intergration has manufactured circumstances in which drug availability has risen dramatically at a time when employment growth has been insufficient and a commercial sex industry has expanded. This research confirms the importance of new methods of risk environment analyses, particularly in relation to trans-boundary hazards associated with global flows, including trade and human mobilities

Efektivní algoritmy pro problémy se sociálním vlivem u velkých sítí

In recent years, the dizzying explosion of data and information results from social networks with millions to billions of users, such as Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, and LinkedIn. Users can use online social networks (OSNs) to quickly trade information, communicate with other users, and keep their information up-to-date. The challenge of spreading information on social networks that arises in practice requires effective information management solutions, such as disseminating useful information, maximizing the influence of information transmission, and preventing disinformation, rumors, and viruses from being disseminated. Motivated by the above issues, we investigate the problem of information diffusion on OSNs. We study this problem based on two models, Independent Cascade (IC) and Linear Threshold (LT), and classical Influence Maximization (IM) in online social networks. In addition, we investigate various aspects of IM problems, such as budget variations, topics of interest, multiple competitors, and others. Moreover, we also investigate and apply the theory of combinatorial optimization problems to solve one of the current concerns in social networks, maximizing the influence on the groups and topics in social networks. In general, the main goals of the Ph.D thesis proposal are as follows. 1. We investigate the Multi-Threshold problem for IM, which is a variant of the IM problem with threshold constraints. We propose an efficient algorithm that IM for multiple thresholds in the social network. In particular, we develop a novel algorithmic framework that can use the solution to a smaller threshold to find that of larger ones. 2. We study the Group Influence Maximization problem and introduce an efficient group influence maximization algorithm with more advantages than each node’s influence in networks, using a novel sampling technique to estimate the epsilon group function. We also devised an approximation algorithm to estimate multiple candidate solutions with theoretical guarantee. 3. We investigate an approach for Influence Maximization problem with k-topic under constraints in social network. More specifically, we also study a streaming algorithm that combines an optimization algorithm to improve the approximation algorithm and theoretical guarantee in terms of solution quality and running time.V posledních letech je závratná exploze dat a informací výsledkem sociálních sítí s miliony až miliardami uživatelů, jako jsou Facebook, YouTube, Twitter a LinkedIn. Uživatelé mohou využívat online sociální sítě (OSNs) k rychlému obchodování s informacemi, komunikaci s ostatními uživateli a udržování jejich informací v aktuálním stavu. Výzva šíření informací na sociálních sítích, která se v praxi objevuje, vyžaduje efektivní řešení správy informací, jako je šíření užitečných informací, maximalizace vlivu přenosu informací a zabránění šíření dezinformací, fám a virů. Motivováni výše uvedenými problémy zkoumáme problém šíření informací na OSN. Tento problém studujeme na základě dvou modelů, Independent Cascade (IC) a Linear Threshold (LT) a klasické Influence Maximization (IM) v online sociálních sítích. Kromě toho zkoumáme různé aspekty problémů s rychlým zasíláním zpráv, jako jsou změny rozpočtu, témata zájmu, více konkurentů a další. Kromě toho také zkoumáme a aplikujeme teorii kombinatorických optimalizačních problémů k vyřešení jednoho ze současných problémů v sociálních sítích, maximalizujeme vliv na skupiny a témata v sociálních sítích. Obecně lze říci, že hlavní cíle Ph.D. návrh diplomové práce je následující. 1. Zkoumáme problém Multi-Threshold pro IM, což je varianta problému IM s prahovými omezeními. Navrhujeme účinný algoritmus, který IM pro více prahů v sociální síti. Zejména vyvíjíme nový algoritmický rámec, který může použít řešení pro menší práh k nalezení prahu většího. 2. Studujeme problém maximalizace vlivu skupiny a zavádíme účinný algoritmus maxima- lizace vlivu skupiny s více výhodami, než je vliv každého uzlu v sítích, pomocí nové vzorkovací techniky k odhadu funkce skupiny epsilon. Navrhujeme také aproximační algoritmus pro odhad více kandidátních řešení s teoretickou zárukou. 3. Zkoumáme přístup pro maximalizaci vlivu s k-téma pod omezeními v rozsáhlé síti. Konkrétněji budeme studovat novou metriku, která kombinuje optimalizační algoritmus pro zlepšení aproximačního algoritmu z hlediska kvality řešení a doby běhu na základě kliky a komunity v komplexních sítích.460 - Katedra informatikyvyhově

Urbanisation and renewable energies in ASEAN: multi-disciplinary approaches to analysing past and future trends

By using multi-dimensional and comprehensive analyses, this thesis aims at providing harmonised targets, which not only follow the global trend of sustainable development but also serve the rapid economic and demographic growths in the developing countries. This thesis consists of four papers dealing with different challenges faced by Asian Emerging and Developing Countries (EMDCs) in the face of fast-approaching climate change and energy transition. The four papers can be divided into two main streams based on the research method applied. The first two essays employ decomposition and correlation methods to investigate long-term energy service demand and renewable energy developments. The last two essays turn to techno-socio-economic models with much attention to solar PV, a promising renewable energy type in most of Asian EMDCs. The relationship between urbanisation and renewable energy are explored throughout all articles of the thesis. Paper 1 + 2 conclude that urbanisation causes energy consumption increases drastically in Southeast Asian countries, but at the same time creates momentum for renewable energy development, especially in urban areas. Suggestions for combining urban and energy plans in policy design are provided to use urbanisation as a motivation for renewable energy development. Paper 3 estimates a techno-economic potential for rooftop PV and found evidence of a high-concentration of rooftop solar PV potentials in urban areas in Vietnam. Paper 4 conducts a socio-economic assessment to investigate Social Acceptance (SA) and Willingness To Pay (WTP) toward residential PV products in Vietnam. The results show that PV can be considered as a lifestyle product with much greater attention and intention to purchase from the public in urban areas. To assist policymakers in energy planning, Papers 1 + 2 provide decision support and innovative multilevel comparison tool, called the Impact Matrix. It is used for visualising factors comparison by placing considered factors in four quadrants of the matrix corresponding to four relative priority levels of policy focus requirements. The complex relationships between impact factors and energy demand and renewable energy changes can be explained by following the instruction in Paper 2. Paper 3 develops a cost-effective, accessible, transferable and scalable method for cost-potential assessment of decentralised solar rooftop PV in developing countries where limited resource availability. Adjusting the module efficiency corresponding to regional and household conditions has been implemented to improve the output accuracy. The simulation for rooftop PV market is made regarding different input assumptions and estimates of the effect of various policy designs, including changing the Feed-In Tariffs (FiTs), grid tariff, and technology development. In order to explore future rooftop PV adoption, paper 4 conducts empirical research focusing on discovering the differences between Social Acceptance (SA) and Willingness To Pay (WTP). This paper contributes to the literature of customer behaviour toward renewable energy by providing extended moderated mediation models to differentiate the distinctive roles of each influencing variable of SA and WTP. Policy advice is given to translate environmental interest and PV knowledge to higher SA and adopting action

Timber Trafficking and its Impacts on Human Security in Vietnam

As with other forms of green crime, timber trafficking is frequently overlooked by traditional criminology. This research is an exploratory investigation into the problem of timber trafficking in Vietnam, which aims to obtain a detailed understanding of the typology of, victimisation from, and key factors driving this crime. To achieve this aim, 41 semi-structured interviews with seven different cohorts (environmental police, investigative police, forest protection officers, commune authorities, forest-based inhabitants, timber traders, and green NGO staff) were conducted. Over one hundred pages of official documents (criminal case records, operational reports, and conference papers), and more than two hundred relevant newspapers were collected and analysed to enhance and triangulate the primary data. This research reveals a multifaceted typology of timber trafficking in Vietnam, comprising five different components: harvesting, transporting, trading, supporting, and processing. Each of these components is further constituted by distinctive, parallel forms of illicit operation. There are, for example, three parallel forms of illegal timber harvesting, termed small-scale, medium-scale and large-scale (SSITH, MSITH and LSITH). While having certain overlaps, in general SSITH, MSITH and LSITH are fundamentally distinctive not only in terms of the volumes of illicit timber they produce and the methods of illegally felling trees they employ, as typically identified in the previous studies, but more importantly in terms of the harvesters‘ attributes, their motivations, and the sophistication and security implications of the criminal operations. It is thus argued that the typology of illegal timber harvesting in this research challenges the typical classification in the existing literature, and offers an alternative way of understanding more comprehensively the dynamic of illegal logging. Regarding the victimisation from timber trafficking, due to the employment of a broad conceptual framework of human security, it is revealed that timber trafficking has substantial harmful impacts on all seven elements of human security: economic, food, health, environmental, personal, community, and political. These impacts are closely interconnected, but vary between different groups of victims. These findings culminate in the proposal that there are three main typical characteristics of green victimisation: suffering hierarchy, victim-offender overlap, and multidimensionality. Additionally, the employment of a human security paradigm in this research leads to another proposal that it is highly achievable and productive to integrate perspectives from the field of security studies into the discipline of green criminology, for the purpose of systematically examining green victimisation. Finally, this research offers five solutions to control timber trafficking in the context of Vietnam, by refining the current policy framework of forest governance and improving the efficiency of law enforcement

Housing development and the role of self-help housing in Vietnamese cities: a case study of Can Tho city

This research explores how new urban housing has been developed in recent years in a high climate change risk city of Can Tho in Vietnam, with a strong focus on self-help housing process and its role in providing urban housing for the low and middle-income groups. In order to achieve this aim, four objectives were clarified in this thesis, which include: (1)-Exploring why and how does self-help housing happen commonly in Vietnamese cities, and what is the role of self-help housing in urban housing development in Vietnam; (2)-Identifying the main approaches, forms and identities of new urban housing developments in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta Region (VMDR), and what economic, social or environmental problems arise from this; (3)-Finding out to what extent does the legal and administrative framework, land ownership and the practical process of land use change affect housing development in Vietnam; and (4)-Pointing out the major risks in housing development in the VMDR. Firstly, by initially examining the literature on housing development and self-help housing, mostly in relation to the developing countries, the author established the different approaches for housing the urban low and middle-income groups as well as an analytical framework for the research which includes the pros and cons of self-help housing approaches. This conceptual contribution of the research summarises the theory of self-help housing and the self-help approach in urban development in developing countries. The framework provided a firm structure to study self-help housing in Vietnam in this research through the analysis of the Can Tho city case study. Secondly, the contribution of the thesis at the practical level is the provision of lessons from developing countries such as China, Turkey, Thailand and others that Vietnam can learn from (in both positive and negative ways) with reference to various aspects of urban development management, urban design, living condition improvement and environmental protection. Although the thesis did not draw extensively on the lessons from the four developing countries, they did provide general overviews of self-help housing development in developing countries facing similar problems to those of Vietnam. Thirdly, the research investigated the Vietnamese construction industry context, including Vietnam’s planning structure, legislation (including Laws on planning, construction, real estate and housing), which has driven the housing development in Vietnam. The empirical analysis of the case study shows that self-help housing is dominant in housing development in Vietnamese cities in recent years. It plays an important role in housing the low and middle-income groups. This trend will take place in the short and medium term, as the loose regulation in planning and development control and the fact that many people (including government officials) are highly satisfied with this type of housing. However, in the longer term most of the informal housing will arguably be transformed into or replaced by formal housing, as people will recognize both the short and long-term benefit of the formal housing planning and development process. This study reveals that self-help housing, including both the informal and formal self-help, has been successful in providing affordable and flexible housing for the low and middle-income groups in Vietnamese cities. Due to the high level of land accessibility for self-help housing in many Vietnamese cities and the lack of a proper housing finance system to support house buyers, most people prefer to develop their own houses depending on their current financial abilities. The changing of land use purposes which leads to a significant change in land value is also an important factor in driving the growth of self-help housing development in Vietnam. Institutionally, the pro-self-help housing government and a weak urban planning and management system are also part of underlying causes of the enormous development of self-help housing in Vietnamese cities in recent years. This study also gives recommendations towards a pro-active government’s initiatives to strengthen the urban governance in order to archive a fair and transparent environment in housing development in Vietnamese cities for stakeholders, enhance the land use effectiveness and improving the living condition of urban resident in a more sustainable way

Managing Great Power Politics

This Open Access book explains ASEAN’s strategic role in managing great power politics in East Asia. Constructing a theory of institutional strategy, this book argues that the regional security institutions in Southeast Asia, ASEAN and ASEAN-led institutions have devised their own institutional strategies vis-à-vis the South China Sea and navigated the great-power politics since the 1990s. ASEAN proliferated new security institutions in the 1990s and 2000s that assumed a different functionality, a different geopolitical scope, and thus a different institutional strategy. In so doing, ASEAN formed a “strategic institutional web” that nurtured a quasi-division of labor among the institutions to maintain relative stability in the South China Sea. Unlike the conventional analysis on ASEAN, this study disaggregates “ASEAN” as a collective regional actor into specific individual institutions—ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, ASEAN Summit, ASEAN-China dialogues, ASEAN Regional Forum, East Asia Summit, and ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting and ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting-Plus—and explains how each of these institutions has devised and/or shifted its institutional strategy to curb great powers’ ambition in dominating the South China Sea while navigating great power competition. The book sheds light on the strategic potential and limitations of ASEAN and ASEAN-led security institutions, offers implications for the future role of ASEAN in the Indo-Pacific region, and provides an alternative understanding of the strategic utilities of regional security institutions

Proceedings, National Rabies Symposium

co-sponsors: AVMA Council on Public Health and Regulatory Veterinary Medicine, Veterinary Public Health Section, Epidemiology Program, CDC