Weak Disorder in Fibonacci Sequences

We study how weak disorder affects the growth of the Fibonacci series. We introduce a family of stochastic sequences that grow by the normal Fibonacci recursion with probability 1-epsilon, but follow a different recursion rule with a small probability epsilon. We focus on the weak disorder limit and obtain the Lyapunov exponent, that characterizes the typical growth of the sequence elements, using perturbation theory. The limiting distribution for the ratio of consecutive sequence elements is obtained as well. A number of variations to the basic Fibonacci recursion including shift, doubling, and copying are considered.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figure

Tightness for a family of recursion equations

In this paper we study the tightness of solutions for a family of recursion equations. These equations arise naturally in the study of random walks on tree-like structures. Examples include the maximal displacement of a branching random walk in one dimension and the cover time of a symmetric simple random walk on regular binary trees. Recursion equations associated with the distribution functions of these quantities have been used to establish weak laws of large numbers. Here, we use these recursion equations to establish the tightness of the corresponding sequences of distribution functions after appropriate centering. We phrase our results in a fairly general context, which we hope will facilitate their application in other settings.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOP414 the Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

A metapopulation model with Markovian landscape dynamics

We study a variant of Hanski's incidence function model that allows habitat patch characteristics to vary over time following a Markov process. The widely studied case where patches are classified as either suitable or unsuitable is included as a special case. For large metapopulations, we determine a recursion for the probability that a given habitat patch is occupied. This recursion enables us to clarify the role of landscape dynamics in the survival of a metapopulation. In particular, we show that landscape dynamics affects the persistence and equilibrium level of the metapopulation primarily through its effect on the distribution of a local population's life span.Comment: This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0

Computational Dynamic Market Risk Measures in Discrete Time Setting

Different approaches to defining dynamic market risk measures are available in the literature. Most are focused or derived from probability theory, economic behavior or dynamic programming. Here, we propose an approach to define and implement dynamic market risk measures based on recursion and state economy representation. The proposed approach is to be implementable and to inherit properties from static market risk measures.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figure

R(p,q)- analogs of discrete distributions: general formalism and application

In this paper, we define and discuss $\mathcal{R}(p,q)$- deformations of basic univariate discrete distributions of the probability theory. We mainly focus on binomial, Euler, P\'olya and inverse P\'olya distributions. We discuss relevant $\mathcal{R}(p,q)-$ deformed factorial moments of a random variable, and establish associated expressions of mean and variance. Futhermore, we derive a recursion relation for the probability distributions. Then, we apply the same approach to build main distributional properties characterizing the generalized $q-$ Quesne quantum algebra, used in physics. Other known results in the literature are also recovered as particular cases

Rough path recursions and diffusion approximations

In this article, we consider diffusion approximations for a general class of stochastic recursions. Such recursions arise as models for population growth, genetics, financial securities, multiplicative time series, numerical schemes and MCMC algorithms. We make no particular probabilistic assumptions on the type of noise appearing in these recursions. Thus, our technique is well suited to recursions where the noise sequence is not a semi-martingale, even though the limiting noise may be. Our main theorem assumes a weak limit theorem on the noise process appearing in the random recursions and lifts it to diffusion approximation for the recursion itself. To achieve this, we approximate the recursion (pathwise) by the solution to a stochastic equation driven by piecewise smooth paths; this can be thought of as a pathwise version of backward error analysis for SDEs. We then identify the limit of this stochastic equation, and hence the original recursion, using tools from rough path theory. We provide several examples of diffusion approximations, both new and old, to illustrate this technique.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/15-AAP1096 in the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org