957 research outputs found
Type space on a purely measurable parameter space
Several game theoretical topics require the analysis of hierarchical beliefs, particularly in incomplete information situations. For the problem of incomplete information, HarsÂŽanyi suggested the concept of the type space. Later Mertens & Zamir gave a construction of such a type space under topological assumptions imposed on the parameter space. The topological assumptions were weakened by Heifetz, and by Brandenburger & Dekel. In this paper we show that at very natural assumptions upon the structure of the beliefs, the universal type space does exist. We construct a universal type space, which employs purely a measurable parameter space structure
Finitely additive beliefs and universal type spaces
The probabilistic type spaces in the sense of Harsanyi [Management Sci. 14
(1967/68) 159--182, 320--334, 486--502] are the prevalent models used to
describe interactive uncertainty. In this paper we examine the existence of a
universal type space when beliefs are described by finitely additive
probability measures. We find that in the category of all type spaces that
satisfy certain measurability conditions (-measurability, for some
fixed regular cardinal ), there is a universal type space (i.e., a
terminal object) to which every type space can be mapped in a unique
beliefs-preserving way. However, by a probabilistic adaption of the elegant
sober-drunk example of Heifetz and Samet [Games Econom. Behav. 22 (1998)
260--273] we show that if all subsets of the spaces are required to be
measurable, then there is no universal type space.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009117905000000576 in the
Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
Probability Logic for Harsanyi Type Spaces
Probability logic has contributed to significant developments in belief types
for game-theoretical economics. We present a new probability logic for Harsanyi
Type spaces, show its completeness, and prove both a de-nesting property and a
unique extension theorem. We then prove that multi-agent interactive
epistemology has greater complexity than its single-agent counterpart by
showing that if the probability indices of the belief language are restricted
to a finite set of rationals and there are finitely many propositional letters,
then the canonical space for probabilistic beliefs with one agent is finite
while the canonical one with at least two agents has the cardinality of the
continuum. Finally, we generalize the three notions of definability in
multimodal logics to logics of probabilistic belief and knowledge, namely
implicit definability, reducibility, and explicit definability. We find that
S5-knowledge can be implicitly defined by probabilistic belief but not reduced
to it and hence is not explicitly definable by probabilistic belief
Default Logic in a Coherent Setting
In this talk - based on the results of a forthcoming paper (Coletti,
Scozzafava and Vantaggi 2002), presented also by one of us at the Conference on
"Non Classical Logic, Approximate Reasoning and Soft-Computing" (Anacapri,
Italy, 2001) - we discuss the problem of representing default rules by means of
a suitable coherent conditional probability, defined on a family of conditional
events. An event is singled-out (in our approach) by a proposition, that is a
statement that can be either true or false; a conditional event is consequently
defined by means of two propositions and is a 3-valued entity, the third value
being (in this context) a conditional probability
Ignorance and indifference
The epistemic state of complete ignorance is not a probability distribution. In it, we assign the same, unique, ignorance degree of belief to any contingent outcome and each of its contingent, disjunctive parts. That this is the appropriate way to represent complete ignorance is established by two instruments, each individually strong enough to identify this state. They are the principle of indifference (PI) and the notion that ignorance is invariant under certain redescriptions of the outcome space, here developed into the 'principle of invariance of ignorance' (PII). Both instruments are so innocuous as almost to be platitudes. Yet the literature in probabilistic epistemology has misdiagnosed them as paradoxical or defective since they generate inconsistencies when conjoined with the assumption that an epistemic state must be a probability distribution. To underscore the need to drop this assumption, I express PII in its most defensible form as relating symmetric descriptions and show that paradoxes still arise if we assume the ignorance state to be a probability distribution. Copyright 2008 by the Philosophy of Science Association. All rights reserved
Probabilities on Sentences in an Expressive Logic
Automated reasoning about uncertain knowledge has many applications. One
difficulty when developing such systems is the lack of a completely
satisfactory integration of logic and probability. We address this problem
directly. Expressive languages like higher-order logic are ideally suited for
representing and reasoning about structured knowledge. Uncertain knowledge can
be modeled by using graded probabilities rather than binary truth-values. The
main technical problem studied in this paper is the following: Given a set of
sentences, each having some probability of being true, what probability should
be ascribed to other (query) sentences? A natural wish-list, among others, is
that the probability distribution (i) is consistent with the knowledge base,
(ii) allows for a consistent inference procedure and in particular (iii)
reduces to deductive logic in the limit of probabilities being 0 and 1, (iv)
allows (Bayesian) inductive reasoning and (v) learning in the limit and in
particular (vi) allows confirmation of universally quantified
hypotheses/sentences. We translate this wish-list into technical requirements
for a prior probability and show that probabilities satisfying all our criteria
exist. We also give explicit constructions and several general
characterizations of probabilities that satisfy some or all of the criteria and
various (counter) examples. We also derive necessary and sufficient conditions
for extending beliefs about finitely many sentences to suitable probabilities
over all sentences, and in particular least dogmatic or least biased ones. We
conclude with a brief outlook on how the developed theory might be used and
approximated in autonomous reasoning agents. Our theory is a step towards a
globally consistent and empirically satisfactory unification of probability and
logic.Comment: 52 LaTeX pages, 64 definiton/theorems/etc, presented at conference
Progic 2011 in New Yor
Bayesianism, Infinite Decisions, and Binding
We pose and resolve several vexing decision theoretic puzzles. Some are variants of existing puzzles, such as âTrumpedâ (Arntzenius and McCarthy 1997), âRouble troubleâ (Arntzenius and Barrett 1999), âThe airtight Dutch bookâ (McGee 1999), and âThe two envelopes puzzleâ (Broome 1995). Others are new. A unified resolution of the puzzles shows that Dutch book arguments have no force in infinite cases. It thereby provides evidence that reasonable utility functions may be unbounded and that reasonable credence functions need not be countably additive. The resolution also shows that when infinitely many decisions are involved, the difference between making the decisions simultaneously and making them sequentially can be the difference between riches and ruin. Finally, the resolution reveals a new way in which the ability to make binding commitments can save perfectly rational agents from sure losses
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