24,891 research outputs found
The Problem of Analogical Inference in Inductive Logic
We consider one problem that was largely left open by Rudolf Carnap in his
work on inductive logic, the problem of analogical inference. After discussing
some previous attempts to solve this problem, we propose a new solution that is
based on the ideas of Bruno de Finetti on probabilistic symmetries. We explain
how our new inductive logic can be developed within the Carnapian paradigm of
inductive logic-deriving an inductive rule from a set of simple postulates
about the observational process-and discuss some of its properties.Comment: In Proceedings TARK 2015, arXiv:1606.0729
Complexity Characterization in a Probabilistic Approach to Dynamical Systems Through Information Geometry and Inductive Inference
Information geometric techniques and inductive inference methods hold great
promise for solving computational problems of interest in classical and quantum
physics, especially with regard to complexity characterization of dynamical
systems in terms of their probabilistic description on curved statistical
manifolds. In this article, we investigate the possibility of describing the
macroscopic behavior of complex systems in terms of the underlying statistical
structure of their microscopic degrees of freedom by use of statistical
inductive inference and information geometry. We review the Maximum Relative
Entropy (MrE) formalism and the theoretical structure of the information
geometrodynamical approach to chaos (IGAC) on statistical manifolds. Special
focus is devoted to the description of the roles played by the sectional
curvature, the Jacobi field intensity and the information geometrodynamical
entropy (IGE). These quantities serve as powerful information geometric
complexity measures of information-constrained dynamics associated with
arbitrary chaotic and regular systems defined on the statistical manifold.
Finally, the application of such information geometric techniques to several
theoretical models are presented.Comment: 29 page
Eternal Inflation: When Probabilities Fail
In eternally inflating cosmology, infinitely many pocket universes are seeded. Attempts to show that universes like our observable universe are probable amongst them have failed, since no unique probability measure is recoverable. This lack of definite probabilities is taken to reveal a complete predictive failure. Inductive inference over the pocket universes, it would seem, is impossible. I argue that this conclusion of impossibility mistakes the nature of the problem. It confuses the case in which no inductive inference is possible, with another in which a weaker inductive logic applies. The alternative, applicable inductive logic is determined by background conditions and is the same, non-probabilistic logic as applies to an infinite lottery. This inductive logic does not preclude all predictions, but does affirm that predictions useful to deciding for or against eternal inflation are precluded
Eternal Inflation: When Probabilities Fail
In eternally inflating cosmology, infinitely many pocket universes are seeded. Attempts to show that universes like our observable universe are probable amongst them have failed, since no unique probability measure is recoverable. This lack of definite probabilities is taken to reveal a complete predictive failure. Inductive inference over the pocket universes, it would seem, is impossible. I argue that this conclusion of impossibility mistakes the nature of the problem. It confuses the case in which no inductive inference is possible, with another in which a weaker inductive logic applies. The alternative, applicable inductive logic is determined by background conditions and is the same, non-probabilistic logic as applies to an infinite lottery. This inductive logic does not preclude all predictions, but does affirm that predictions useful to deciding for or against eternal inflation are precluded
Stable Model Counting and Its Application in Probabilistic Logic Programming
Model counting is the problem of computing the number of models that satisfy
a given propositional theory. It has recently been applied to solving inference
tasks in probabilistic logic programming, where the goal is to compute the
probability of given queries being true provided a set of mutually independent
random variables, a model (a logic program) and some evidence. The core of
solving this inference task involves translating the logic program to a
propositional theory and using a model counter. In this paper, we show that for
some problems that involve inductive definitions like reachability in a graph,
the translation of logic programs to SAT can be expensive for the purpose of
solving inference tasks. For such problems, direct implementation of stable
model semantics allows for more efficient solving. We present two
implementation techniques, based on unfounded set detection, that extend a
propositional model counter to a stable model counter. Our experiments show
that for particular problems, our approach can outperform a state-of-the-art
probabilistic logic programming solver by several orders of magnitude in terms
of running time and space requirements, and can solve instances of
significantly larger sizes on which the current solver runs out of time or
memory.Comment: Accepted in AAAI, 201
There are no universal rules for induction
In a material theory of induction, inductive inferences are warranted by facts that prevail locally. This approach, it is urged, is preferable to formal theories of induction in which the good inductive inferences are delineated as those conforming to universal schemas. An inductive inference problem concerning indeterministic, nonprobabilistic systems in physics is posed, and it is argued that Bayesians cannot responsibly analyze it, thereby demonstrating that the probability calculus is not the universal logic of induction. Copyright 2010 by the Philosophy of Science Association.All right reserved
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