Probabilistic assessment of Net Transfer Capacity considering forecast uncertainties

In transmission system planning, researchers propose methods to assess the effect of uncertainties of power system operating condition due to forecasting errors of intermittent generation and loads. In particular probabilistic power flow methods are used to calculate the probability distributions of the voltages and the branch currents, starting from the distributions of power injections/absorptions. These uncertainties play a key role in the operational planning of power systems, as certain configurations of load and intermittent generation can cause security problems. This paper aims to propose a probabilistic methodology to assess Net Transfer Capacity (NTC) among network areas, which quantifies forecast error uncertainties by applying the Point Estimate Method (PEM) combined with Third Order Polynomial Normal (TPN) Transformation. This approach is compared with a conventional NTC assessment technique and has been tested on an IEEE test system

Assessment of underlying capacity mechanism studies for Greece

The increased electricity production from variable sources in the EU combined with the overall decline in demand in recent years, have raised concerns about the security of electricity supply, in general, and in particular about generation adequacy and flexibility, prompting some Member States to consider new public interventions, the so-called capacity remuneration mechanisms. This work presents a review of the underlying capacity mechanism studies for Greece based on European best practices to highlight the latest developments and current trends.JRC.C.3-Energy Security, Distribution and Market

Applications of Probabilistic Forecasting in Smart Grids : A Review

This paper reviews the recent studies and works dealing with probabilistic forecasting models and their applications in smart grids. According to these studies, this paper tries to introduce a roadmap towards decision-making under uncertainty in a smart grid environment. In this way, it firstly discusses the common methods employed to predict the distribution of variables. Then, it reviews how the recent literature used these forecasting methods and for which uncertain parameters they wanted to obtain distributions. Unlike the existing reviews, this paper assesses several uncertain parameters for which probabilistic forecasting models have been developed. In the next stage, this paper provides an overview related to scenario generation of uncertain parameters using their distributions and how these scenarios are adopted for optimal decision-making. In this regard, this paper discusses three types of optimization problems aiming to capture uncertainties and reviews the related papers. Finally, we propose some future applications of probabilistic forecasting based on the flexibility challenges of power systems in the near future.© 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

Managing power system congestion and residential demand response considering uncertainty

Electric power grids are becoming increasingly stressed due to political and environmental difficulties in upgrading transmission capacity. This challenge receives even more interest with the paradigm change of increasing renewable energy sources and demand response (DR) programs. Among DR technologies, existing DR programs are primarily designed for industrial and commercial customers. However, household energy consumption accounts for 38% of total electricity consumption in the U.S., suggesting a significant missed opportunity. This dissertation presents an in-depth study to investigate managing power system congestion and residential DR program under uncertainty.First, an interval optimization model is presented for available transfer capability (ATC) evaluation under uncertainties. The conventional approaches of ATC assessment include deterministic and probabilistic methods. However, the proposed interval optimization model can effectively reduce the accuracy requirements on the renewable forecasting, and lead to acceptable interval results by mitigating the impacts of wind forecasting and modeling errors. Second, a distributed and scalable residential DR program is proposed for reducing the peak load at the utility level. The proposed control approach has the following features: 1) it has a distributed control scheme with limited data exchange among agents to ensure scalability and data privacy, and 2) it reduces the utility peak load and customers’ electricity bills while considering household temperature dynamics and network flow.Third, the impacts of weather and customers’ behavior uncertainties on residential DR are also studied in this dissertation. A new stochastic programming-alternating direction method of multipliers (SP-ADMM) algorithm is proposed to solve problems related to weather and uncertain customer behavior. The case study suggests that the performance of residential DR programs can be further improved by considering these stochastic parameters.Finally, a deep deterministic policy gradient-based (DDPG-based) HVAC control strategy is presented for residential DR programs. Simulation results demonstrate that the DDPG-based approach can considerably reduce system peak load, and it requires much less input information than the model-based methods. Also, it only takes each agent less than 3 seconds to make HVAC control actions. Therefore, the proposed approach is applicable to online controls or the cases where accurate building models or weather forecast information are not available

Bi-Level Optimization Considering Uncertainties of Wind Power and Demand Response

Recently, world-wide power systems have been undergone a paradigm change with increasing penetration of renewable energy. The renewable energy is clean with low operation cost while subject to significant variability and uncertainty. Therefore, integration of renewables presents various challenges in power systems. Meanwhile, to offset the uncertainty from renewables, demand response (DR) has gained considerable research interests because of DR’s flexibility to mitigate the uncertainty from renewables. In this dissertation, various power system problems using bi-level optimization are investigated considering the uncertainties from wind power and demand response. In power system planning, reactive power planning (RPP) under high-penetration wind power is studied in this dissertation. To properly model wind power uncertainty, a multi-scenario framework based on alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) considering the voltage stability constraint under the worst wind scenario and transmission N-1 contingency is developed. The objective of RPP in this work is to minimize the VAR investment and the expected generation cost. Benders decomposition is used to solve this model with an upper level problem for VAR allocation optimization and generation cost minimization as a lower problem. Then, several problems related wind power and demand response uncertainties under power market operation are investigated. These include: an efficient and effective method to calculate the LMP intervals under wind uncertainty is proposed; the load serving entities’ strategic bidding through a coupon-based demand response (CBDR) with which a load serving entity (LSE) may participate in the electricity market as strategic bidders by offering CBDR programs to customers; the impact of financial transmission right (FTR) with CBDR programs is also studied from the perspective of LSEs; and the stragegic scheduling of energy storages owned by LSEs considering the impact of charging and discharging on the bus LMP. In these problems, a bi-level optimization framework is presented with various objective functions representing different problems as the upper level problems and the ISO’s economic dispatch (ED) as the lower level problem. The bi-level model is addressed with mathematic program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) model and mixed-integer linear programming (MILP), which can be easily solved with the available optimization software tool

An Assessment of PIER Electric Grid Research 2003-2014 White Paper

This white paper describes the circumstances in California around the turn of the 21st century that led the California Energy Commission (CEC) to direct additional Public Interest Energy Research funds to address critical electric grid issues, especially those arising from integrating high penetrations of variable renewable generation with the electric grid. It contains an assessment of the beneficial science and technology advances of the resultant portfolio of electric grid research projects administered under the direction of the CEC by a competitively selected contractor, the University of California’s California Institute for Energy and the Environment, from 2003-2014

Estimating Future Consumer Welfare Gains from Innovation: The Case of Digital Data Storage

We develop a quality-adjusted cost index to estimate expected returns to investments in new technologies. The index addresses the problem of measuring social benefits from innovations in service sector inputs, where real output is not directly observable. We forecast welfare gains from two U.S. Advanced Technology Program innovations equaling 25%-50% of expected price, and aggregate consumer benefits of $1-$2 billion, relative to trends in existing technologies. Our model’s probabilistic parameters reflect uncertainty about prospective outcomes and in our hedonic estimates of shadow values for selected product attributes. The index can be readily adopted by research and development (R&D) managers in industry and government.