Probabilistic Timed Automata with Clock-Dependent Probabilities

Probabilistic timed automata are classical timed automata extended with discrete probability distributions over edges. We introduce clock-dependent probabilistic timed automata, a variant of probabilistic timed automata in which transition probabilities can depend linearly on clock values. Clock-dependent probabilistic timed automata allow the modelling of a continuous relationship between time passage and the likelihood of system events. We show that the problem of deciding whether the maximum probability of reaching a certain location is above a threshold is undecidable for clock-dependent probabilistic timed automata. On the other hand, we show that the maximum and minimum probability of reaching a certain location in clock-dependent probabilistic timed automata can be approximated using a region-graph-based approach.Comment: Full version of a paper published at RP 201

On Zone-Based Analysis of Duration Probabilistic Automata

We propose an extension of the zone-based algorithmics for analyzing timed automata to handle systems where timing uncertainty is considered as probabilistic rather than set-theoretic. We study duration probabilistic automata (DPA), expressing multiple parallel processes admitting memoryfull continuously-distributed durations. For this model we develop an extension of the zone-based forward reachability algorithm whose successor operator is a density transformer, thus providing a solution to verification and performance evaluation problems concerning acyclic DPA (or the bounded-horizon behavior of cyclic DPA).Comment: In Proceedings INFINITY 2010, arXiv:1010.611

A Hierarchy of Scheduler Classes for Stochastic Automata

Stochastic automata are a formal compositional model for concurrent stochastic timed systems, with general distributions and non-deterministic choices. Measures of interest are defined over schedulers that resolve the nondeterminism. In this paper we investigate the power of various theoretically and practically motivated classes of schedulers, considering the classic complete-information view and a restriction to non-prophetic schedulers. We prove a hierarchy of scheduler classes w.r.t. unbounded probabilistic reachability. We find that, unlike Markovian formalisms, stochastic automata distinguish most classes even in this basic setting. Verification and strategy synthesis methods thus face a tradeoff between powerful and efficient classes. Using lightweight scheduler sampling, we explore this tradeoff and demonstrate the concept of a useful approximative verification technique for stochastic automata

An Individual-based Probabilistic Model for Fish Stock Simulation

We define an individual-based probabilistic model of a sole (Solea solea) behaviour. The individual model is given in terms of an Extended Probabilistic Discrete Timed Automaton (EPDTA), a new formalism that is introduced in the paper and that is shown to be interpretable as a Markov decision process. A given EPDTA model can be probabilistically model-checked by giving a suitable translation into syntax accepted by existing model-checkers. In order to simulate the dynamics of a given population of soles in different environmental scenarios, an agent-based simulation environment is defined in which each agent implements the behaviour of the given EPDTA model. By varying the probabilities and the characteristic functions embedded in the EPDTA model it is possible to represent different scenarios and to tune the model itself by comparing the results of the simulations with real data about the sole stock in the North Adriatic sea, available from the recent project SoleMon. The simulator is presented and made available for its adaptation to other species.Comment: In Proceedings AMCA-POP 2010, arXiv:1008.314

Verification and Control of Partially Observable Probabilistic Real-Time Systems

We propose automated techniques for the verification and control of probabilistic real-time systems that are only partially observable. To formally model such systems, we define an extension of probabilistic timed automata in which local states are partially visible to an observer or controller. We give a probabilistic temporal logic that can express a range of quantitative properties of these models, relating to the probability of an event's occurrence or the expected value of a reward measure. We then propose techniques to either verify that such a property holds or to synthesise a controller for the model which makes it true. Our approach is based on an integer discretisation of the model's dense-time behaviour and a grid-based abstraction of the uncountable belief space induced by partial observability. The latter is necessarily approximate since the underlying problem is undecidable, however we show how both lower and upper bounds on numerical results can be generated. We illustrate the effectiveness of the approach by implementing it in the PRISM model checker and applying it to several case studies, from the domains of computer security and task scheduling

Verification and control of partially observable probabilistic systems

We present automated techniques for the verification and control of partially observable, probabilistic systems for both discrete and dense models of time. For the discrete-time case, we formally model these systems using partially observable Markov decision processes; for dense time, we propose an extension of probabilistic timed automata in which local states are partially visible to an observer or controller. We give probabilistic temporal logics that can express a range of quantitative properties of these models, relating to the probability of an event’s occurrence or the expected value of a reward measure. We then propose techniques to either verify that such a property holds or synthesise a controller for the model which makes it true. Our approach is based on a grid-based abstraction of the uncountable belief space induced by partial observability and, for dense-time models, an integer discretisation of real-time behaviour. The former is necessarily approximate since the underlying problem is undecidable, however we show how both lower and upper bounds on numerical results can be generated. We illustrate the effectiveness of the approach by implementing it in the PRISM model checker and applying it to several case studies from the domains of task and network scheduling, computer security and planning

Quantitative model checking of continuous-time Markov chains against timed automata specifications

We study the following problem: given a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) C, and a linear real-time property provided as a deterministic timed automaton (DTA) A, what is the probability of the set of paths of C that are\ud accepted by A (C satisfies A)? It is shown that this set of paths is measurable and computing its probability can be reduced to computing the reachability probability in a piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDP). The reachability probability is characterized as the least solution of a system of integral equations and is shown to be approximated by solving a system of partial differential equations. For the special case of single-clock DTA, the system of integral equations can be transformed into a system of linear equations where the coefficients are solutions of ordinary differential equations