Probabilistic Hybrid Action Models for Predicting Concurrent Percept-driven Robot Behavior

This article develops Probabilistic Hybrid Action Models (PHAMs), a realistic causal model for predicting the behavior generated by modern percept-driven robot plans. PHAMs represent aspects of robot behavior that cannot be represented by most action models used in AI planning: the temporal structure of continuous control processes, their non-deterministic effects, several modes of their interferences, and the achievement of triggering conditions in closed-loop robot plans. The main contributions of this article are: (1) PHAMs, a model of concurrent percept-driven behavior, its formalization, and proofs that the model generates probably, qualitatively accurate predictions; and (2) a resource-efficient inference method for PHAMs based on sampling projections from probabilistic action models and state descriptions. We show how PHAMs can be applied to planning the course of action of an autonomous robot office courier based on analytical and experimental results

A Methodology for Information Flow Experiments

Information flow analysis has largely ignored the setting where the analyst has neither control over nor a complete model of the analyzed system. We formalize such limited information flow analyses and study an instance of it: detecting the usage of data by websites. We prove that these problems are ones of causal inference. Leveraging this connection, we push beyond traditional information flow analysis to provide a systematic methodology based on experimental science and statistical analysis. Our methodology allows us to systematize prior works in the area viewing them as instances of a general approach. Our systematic study leads to practical advice for improving work on detecting data usage, a previously unformalized area. We illustrate these concepts with a series of experiments collecting data on the use of information by websites, which we statistically analyze

Causes and Explanations: A Structural-Model Approach, Part I: Causes

We propose a new definition of actual cause, using structural equations to model counterfactuals. We show that the definition yields a plausible and elegant account of causation that handles well examples which have caused problems for other definitions and resolves major difficulties in the traditional account.Comment: Part II of the paper (on Explanation) is also on the arxiv. Previously the two parts were submitted as one paper. To appear in the British Journal for the Philosophy of Scienc