Probabilistic model for microgrids optimal energy management considering AC network constraints

A new probabilistic approach for microgrids (MGs) optimal energy management considering ac network constraints is proposed in this paper. The economic model of an energy storage system (ESS) is considered in the problem. The reduced unscented transformation (RUT) is applied in order to deal with the uncertainties related to the forecasted values of load demand, market price, and available outputs of renewable energy sources (RESs). Moreover, the correlation between market price and load demand is taken into account. Besides, the impact of the correlated wind turbines (WT) on MGs’ energy management is studied. An enhanced JAYA (EJAYA) algorithm is suggested to achieve the best solution of the considered problem. The effective performance of the presented approach is verified by applying the suggested strategy on a modified IEEE 33-bus system. It can be observed that for dealing with probabilistic problems, the suggested RUT-EJAYA shows accurate results such as those of Monte Carlo (MC) while the computational burden (time and complexity) is lower.fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

Optimal operation of hybrid AC/DC microgrids under uncertainty of renewable energy resources : A comprehensive review

The hybrid AC/DC microgrids have become considerably popular as they are reliable, accessible and robust. They are utilized for solving environmental, economic, operational and power-related political issues. Having this increased necessity taken into consideration, this paper performs a comprehensive review of the fundamentals of hybrid AC/DC microgrids and describes their components. Mathematical models and valid comparisons among different renewable energy sources’ generations are discussed. Subsequently, various operational zones, control and optimization methods, power flow calculations in the presence of uncertainties related to renewable energy resources are reviewed.fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

Generation and Evaluation of Space-Time Trajectories of Photovoltaic Power

In the probabilistic energy forecasting literature, emphasis is mainly placed on deriving marginal predictive densities for which each random variable is dealt with individually. Such marginals description is sufficient for power systems related operational problems if and only if optimal decisions are to be made for each lead-time and each location independently of each other. However, many of these operational processes are temporally and spatially coupled, while uncertainty in photovoltaic (PV) generation is strongly dependent in time and in space. This issue is addressed here by analysing and capturing spatio-temporal dependencies in PV generation. Multivariate predictive distributions are modelled and space-time trajectories describing the potential evolution of forecast errors through successive lead-times and locations are generated. Discrimination ability of the relevant scoring rules on performance assessment of space-time trajectories of PV generation is also studied. Finally, the advantage of taking into account space-time correlations over probabilistic and point forecasts is investigated. The empirical investigation is based on the solar PV dataset of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom) 2014.Comment: 33 pages, 11 Figure

Uncertainty Analysis of the Adequacy Assessment Model of a Distributed Generation System

Due to the inherent aleatory uncertainties in renewable generators, the reliability/adequacy assessments of distributed generation (DG) systems have been particularly focused on the probabilistic modeling of random behaviors, given sufficient informative data. However, another type of uncertainty (epistemic uncertainty) must be accounted for in the modeling, due to incomplete knowledge of the phenomena and imprecise evaluation of the related characteristic parameters. In circumstances of few informative data, this type of uncertainty calls for alternative methods of representation, propagation, analysis and interpretation. In this study, we make a first attempt to identify, model, and jointly propagate aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the context of DG systems modeling for adequacy assessment. Probability and possibility distributions are used to model the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, respectively. Evidence theory is used to incorporate the two uncertainties under a single framework. Based on the plausibility and belief functions of evidence theory, the hybrid propagation approach is introduced. A demonstration is given on a DG system adapted from the IEEE 34 nodes distribution test feeder. Compared to the pure probabilistic approach, it is shown that the hybrid propagation is capable of explicitly expressing the imprecision in the knowledge on the DG parameters into the final adequacy values assessed. It also effectively captures the growth of uncertainties with higher DG penetration levels