10,950 research outputs found

    Real-Time Predictive Modeling and Robust Avoidance of Pedestrians with Uncertain, Changing Intentions

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    To plan safe trajectories in urban environments, autonomous vehicles must be able to quickly assess the future intentions of dynamic agents. Pedestrians are particularly challenging to model, as their motion patterns are often uncertain and/or unknown a priori. This paper presents a novel changepoint detection and clustering algorithm that, when coupled with offline unsupervised learning of a Gaussian process mixture model (DPGP), enables quick detection of changes in intent and online learning of motion patterns not seen in prior training data. The resulting long-term movement predictions demonstrate improved accuracy relative to offline learning alone, in terms of both intent and trajectory prediction. By embedding these predictions within a chance-constrained motion planner, trajectories which are probabilistically safe to pedestrian motions can be identified in real-time. Hardware experiments demonstrate that this approach can accurately predict pedestrian motion patterns from onboard sensor/perception data and facilitate robust navigation within a dynamic environment.Comment: Submitted to 2014 International Workshop on the Algorithmic Foundations of Robotic

    Risk-Aware Management of Distributed Energy Resources

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    High wind energy penetration critically challenges the economic dispatch of current and future power systems. Supply and demand must be balanced at every bus of the grid, while respecting transmission line ratings and accounting for the stochastic nature of renewable energy sources. Aligned to that goal, a network-constrained economic dispatch is developed in this paper. To account for the uncertainty of renewable energy forecasts, wind farm schedules are determined so that they can be delivered over the transmission network with a prescribed probability. Given that the distribution of wind power forecasts is rarely known, and/or uncertainties may yield non-convex feasible sets for the power schedules, a scenario approximation technique using Monte Carlo sampling is pursued. Upon utilizing the structure of the DC optimal power flow (OPF), a distribution-free convex problem formulation is derived whose complexity scales well with the wind forecast sample size. The efficacy of this novel approach is evaluated over the IEEE 30-bus power grid benchmark after including real operation data from seven wind farms.Comment: To appear in Proc. of 18th Intl. Conf. on DSP, Santorini Island, Greece, July 1-3, 201

    Efficient Time and Space Representation of Uncertain Event Data

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    Process mining is a discipline which concerns the analysis of execution data of operational processes, the extraction of models from event data, the measurement of the conformance between event data and normative models, and the enhancement of all aspects of processes. Most approaches assume that event data is accurately capture behavior. However, this is not realistic in many applications: data can contain uncertainty, generated from errors in recording, imprecise measurements, and other factors. Recently, new methods have been developed to analyze event data containing uncertainty; these techniques prominently rely on representing uncertain event data by means of graph-based models explicitly capturing uncertainty. In this paper, we introduce a new approach to efficiently calculate a graph representation of the behavior contained in an uncertain process trace. We present our novel algorithm, prove its asymptotic time complexity, and show experimental results that highlight order-of-magnitude performance improvements for the behavior graph construction.Comment: 34 pages, 16 figures, 5 table
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