Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction in Pedestrian-Vehicle Mixed Environments: A Systematic Review

Planning an autonomous vehicle's (AV) path in a space shared with pedestrians requires reasoning about pedestrians' future trajectories. A practical pedestrian trajectory prediction algorithm for the use of AVs needs to consider the effect of the vehicle's interactions with the pedestrians on pedestrians' future motion behaviours. In this regard, this paper systematically reviews different methods proposed in the literature for modelling pedestrian trajectory prediction in presence of vehicles that can be applied for unstructured environments. This paper also investigates specific considerations for pedestrian-vehicle interaction (compared with pedestrian-pedestrian interaction) and reviews how different variables such as prediction uncertainties and behavioural differences are accounted for in the previously proposed prediction models. PRISMA guidelines were followed. Articles that did not consider vehicle and pedestrian interactions or actual trajectories, and articles that only focused on road crossing were excluded. A total of 1260 unique peer-reviewed articles from ACM Digital Library, IEEE Xplore, and Scopus databases were identified in the search. 64 articles were included in the final review as they met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. An overview of datasets containing trajectory data of both pedestrians and vehicles used by the reviewed papers has been provided. Research gaps and directions for future work, such as having more effective definition of interacting agents in deep learning methods and the need for gathering more datasets of mixed traffic in unstructured environments are discussed.Comment: Published in IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation System

Pedestrian Models for Autonomous Driving Part II: High-Level Models of Human Behavior

Abstract—Autonomous vehicles (AVs) must share space with pedestrians, both in carriageway cases such as cars at pedestrian crossings and off-carriageway cases such as delivery vehicles navigating through crowds on pedestrianized high-streets. Unlike static obstacles, pedestrians are active agents with complex, inter- active motions. Planning AV actions in the presence of pedestrians thus requires modelling of their probable future behaviour as well as detecting and tracking them. This narrative review article is Part II of a pair, together surveying the current technology stack involved in this process, organising recent research into a hierarchical taxonomy ranging from low-level image detection to high-level psychological models, from the perspective of an AV designer. This self-contained Part II covers the higher levels of this stack, consisting of models of pedestrian behaviour, from prediction of individual pedestrians’ likely destinations and paths, to game-theoretic models of interactions between pedestrians and autonomous vehicles. This survey clearly shows that, although there are good models for optimal walking behaviour, high-level psychological and social modelling of pedestrian behaviour still remains an open research question that requires many conceptual issues to be clarified. Early work has been done on descriptive and qualitative models of behaviour, but much work is still needed to translate them into quantitative algorithms for practical AV control

Real-time motion planning methods for autonomous on-road driving: state-of-the-art and future research directions

Currently autonomous or self-driving vehicles are at the heart of academia and industry research because of its multi-faceted advantages that includes improved safety, reduced congestion, lower emissions and greater mobility. Software is the key driving factor underpinning autonomy within which planning algorithms that are responsible for mission-critical decision making hold a significant position. While transporting passengers or goods from a given origin to a given destination, motion planning methods incorporate searching for a path to follow, avoiding obstacles and generating the best trajectory that ensures safety, comfort and efficiency. A range of different planning approaches have been proposed in the literature. The purpose of this paper is to review existing approaches and then compare and contrast different methods employed for the motion planning of autonomous on-road driving that consists of (1) finding a path, (2) searching for the safest manoeuvre and (3) determining the most feasible trajectory. Methods developed by researchers in each of these three levels exhibit varying levels of complexity and performance accuracy. This paper presents a critical evaluation of each of these methods, in terms of their advantages/disadvantages, inherent limitations, feasibility, optimality, handling of obstacles and testing operational environments. Based on a critical review of existing methods, research challenges to address current limitations are identified and future research directions are suggested so as to enhance the performance of planning algorithms at all three levels. Some promising areas of future focus have been identified as the use of vehicular communications (V2V and V2I) and the incorporation of transport engineering aspects in order to improve the look-ahead horizon of current sensing technologies that are essential for planning with the aim of reducing the total cost of driverless vehicles. This critical review on planning techniques presented in this paper, along with the associated discussions on their constraints and limitations, seek to assist researchers in accelerating development in the emerging field of autonomous vehicle research

Intelligent and High-Performance Behavior Design of Autonomous Systems via Learning, Optimization and Control

Nowadays, great societal demands have rapidly boosted the development of autonomous systems that densely interact with humans in many application domains, from manufacturing to transportation and from workplaces to daily lives. The shift from isolated working environments to human-dominated space requires autonomous systems to be empowered to handle not only environmental uncertainties such as external vibrations but also interaction uncertainties arising from human behavior which is in nature probabilistic, causal but not strictly rational, internally hierarchical and socially compliant.This dissertation is concerned with the design of intelligent and high-performance behavior of such autonomous systems, leveraging the strength from control, optimization, learning, and cognitive science. The work consists of two parts. In Part I, the problem of high-level hybrid human-machine behavior design is addressed. The goal is to achieve safe, efficient and human-like interaction with people. A framework based on the theory of mind, utility theories and imitation learning is proposed to efficiently represent and learn the complicated behavior of humans. Built upon that, machine behaviors at three different levels - the perceptual level, the reasoning level, and the action level - are designed via imitation learning, optimization, and online adaptation, allowing the system to interpret, reason and behave as human, particularly when a variety of uncertainties exist. Applications to autonomous driving are considered throughout Part I. Part II is concerned with the design of high-performance low-level individual machine behavior in the presence of model uncertainties and external disturbances. Advanced control laws based on adaptation, iterative learning and the internal structures of uncertainties/disturbances are developed to assure that the high-level interactive behaviors can be reliably executed. Applications on robot manipulators and high-precision motion systems are discussed in this part