Probabilistic and artificial intelligence modelling of drought and agricultural crop yield in Pakistan

Pakistan is a drought-prone, agricultural nation with hydro-meteorological imbalances that increase the scarcity of water resources, thus, constraining water availability and leading major risks to the agricultural productivity sector and food security. Rainfall and drought are imperative matters of consideration, both for hydrological and agricultural applications. The aim of this doctoral thesis is to advance new knowledge in designing hybridized probabilistic and artificial intelligence forecasts models for rainfall, drought and crop yield within the agricultural hubs in Pakistan. The choice of these study regions is a strategic decision, to focus on precision agriculture given the importance of rainfall and drought events on agricultural crops in socioeconomic activities of Pakistan. The outcomes of this PhD contribute to efficient modelling of seasonal rainfall, drought and crop yield to assist farmers and other stakeholders to promote more strategic decisions for better management of climate risk for agriculturalreliant nations

Uncertainty quantification for Tokamak experimental analysis and reactor design

Society faces major challenges to ensuring the future sustainability of energy generation in the presence of climate change. The world is facing the need for a rapid decarbonisation of energy generation technologies. Current alternatives to satisfy the worlds growing energy demand, particularly wind and solar energy, suffer from low energy density generation. That is, the present options require large areas of land and consistent environmental conditions to reliably generate energy. Thermonuclear fusion promises an alternative solution that is both carbon neutral and offer high density generation with no dependence on the external environment. To realise this opportunity there are several technical challenges that must first be overcome. This is the enduring focus of nuclear fusion research. One of the main outstanding challenges to the realisation of thermonuclear fusion for energy generation is related to the power handling capacity of plasma facing components in fusion reactors. This challenge has two main components. The first is finding materials that can withstand the conditions inside fusion reactors. The second is to better understand those conditions to enhance the predictive capability of models that can be used to design future plasma facing components. The work of this thesis fits within that second class. Simplified edge physics models can be used to predict the power deposition of plasma facing components. These models are, however, generally deterministic. Yet the power deposition experienced by plasma facing components experiences significant stochastic variability. There is also a great deal of uncertainty in the characterisation of those plasma facing components power deposition characteristics. Several approaches to deal with uncertainties and to characterise the stochastic variability relating to the characterisation of power deposition in plasma facing components have been explored. This includes a full Bayesian analysis of uncertain parameters in deterministic simplified edge physics models. A novel approach is proposed to disentangle the effect of short duration transient edge localised modes and the steady state escape of power into the edge layer. This approach, as will be explored within the thesis, can be used to enhance understanding of experimental data and to predict power deposition on plasma facing components in future fusion devices. Finally a full stochastic model for the prediction of power deposition in the Joint European Torus is explored. This model includes the effect of the steady state escape of energised particles into the edge of the fusion plasma, the effect of transient events, the stochastic properties of each of these phenomena, and a model for the temporal dependence of these phenomena during a discharge

Políticas de Copyright de Publicações Científicas em Repositórios Institucionais: O Caso do INESC TEC

A progressiva transformação das práticas científicas, impulsionada pelo desenvolvimento das novas Tecnologias de Informação e Comunicação (TIC), têm possibilitado aumentar o acesso à informação, caminhando gradualmente para uma abertura do ciclo de pesquisa. Isto permitirá resolver a longo prazo uma adversidade que se tem colocado aos investigadores, que passa pela existência de barreiras que limitam as condições de acesso, sejam estas geográficas ou financeiras. Apesar da produção científica ser dominada, maioritariamente, por grandes editoras comerciais, estando sujeita às regras por estas impostas, o Movimento do Acesso Aberto cuja primeira declaração pública, a Declaração de Budapeste (BOAI), é de 2002, vem propor alterações significativas que beneficiam os autores e os leitores. Este Movimento vem a ganhar importância em Portugal desde 2003, com a constituição do primeiro repositório institucional a nível nacional. Os repositórios institucionais surgiram como uma ferramenta de divulgação da produção científica de uma instituição, com o intuito de permitir abrir aos resultados da investigação, quer antes da publicação e do próprio processo de arbitragem (preprint), quer depois (postprint), e, consequentemente, aumentar a visibilidade do trabalho desenvolvido por um investigador e a respetiva instituição. O estudo apresentado, que passou por uma análise das políticas de copyright das publicações científicas mais relevantes do INESC TEC, permitiu não só perceber que as editoras adotam cada vez mais políticas que possibilitam o auto-arquivo das publicações em repositórios institucionais, como também que existe todo um trabalho de sensibilização a percorrer, não só para os investigadores, como para a instituição e toda a sociedade. A produção de um conjunto de recomendações, que passam pela implementação de uma política institucional que incentive o auto-arquivo das publicações desenvolvidas no âmbito institucional no repositório, serve como mote para uma maior valorização da produção científica do INESC TEC.The progressive transformation of scientific practices, driven by the development of new Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), which made it possible to increase access to information, gradually moving towards an opening of the research cycle. This opening makes it possible to resolve, in the long term, the adversity that has been placed on researchers, which involves the existence of barriers that limit access conditions, whether geographical or financial. Although large commercial publishers predominantly dominate scientific production and subject it to the rules imposed by them, the Open Access movement whose first public declaration, the Budapest Declaration (BOAI), was in 2002, proposes significant changes that benefit the authors and the readers. This Movement has gained importance in Portugal since 2003, with the constitution of the first institutional repository at the national level. Institutional repositories have emerged as a tool for disseminating the scientific production of an institution to open the results of the research, both before publication and the preprint process and postprint, increase the visibility of work done by an investigator and his or her institution. The present study, which underwent an analysis of the copyright policies of INESC TEC most relevant scientific publications, allowed not only to realize that publishers are increasingly adopting policies that make it possible to self-archive publications in institutional repositories, all the work of raising awareness, not only for researchers but also for the institution and the whole society. The production of a set of recommendations, which go through the implementation of an institutional policy that encourages the self-archiving of the publications developed in the institutional scope in the repository, serves as a motto for a greater appreciation of the scientific production of INESC TEC