2,442 research outputs found
Probabilistic Inference in Queueing Networks
Although queueing models have long been used to model the performance of computer systems, they are out of favor with practitioners, because they have a reputation for requiring unrealistic distributional assumptions. In fact, these distributional assumptions are used mainly to facilitate analytic approximations such as asymptotics and large-deviations bounds. In this paper, we analyze queueing networks from the probabilistic modeling perspective, applying inference methods from graphical models that afford significantly more modeling flexibility. In particular, we present a Gibbs sampler and stochastic EM algorithm for networks of M/M/1 FIFO queues. As an application of this technique, we localize performance problems in distributed systems from incomplete system trace data. On both synthetic networks and an actual distributed Web application, the model accurately recovers the system’s service time using 1 % of the available trace data.
Inference and Learning in Networks of Queues
Probabilistic models of the performance of computer systems are useful both for predicting system performance in new conditions, and for diagnosing past performance problems. The most popular performance models are networks of queues. However, no current methods exist for parameter estimation or inference in networks of queues with missing data. In this paper, we present a novel viewpoint that combines queueing networks and graphical models, allowing Markov chain Monte Carlo to be applied. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our sampler on real-world data from a benchmark Web application.
Bayesian inference for queueing networks and modeling of internet services
Modern Internet services, such as those at Google, Yahoo!, and Amazon, handle
billions of requests per day on clusters of thousands of computers. Because
these services operate under strict performance requirements, a statistical
understanding of their performance is of great practical interest. Such
services are modeled by networks of queues, where each queue models one of the
computers in the system. A key challenge is that the data are incomplete,
because recording detailed information about every request to a heavily used
system can require unacceptable overhead. In this paper we develop a Bayesian
perspective on queueing models in which the arrival and departure times that
are not observed are treated as latent variables. Underlying this viewpoint is
the observation that a queueing model defines a deterministic transformation
between the data and a set of independent variables called the service times.
With this viewpoint in hand, we sample from the posterior distribution over
missing data and model parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo. We evaluate
our framework on data from a benchmark Web application. We also present a
simple technique for selection among nested queueing models. We are unaware of
any previous work that considers inference in networks of queues in the
presence of missing data.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS392 the Annals of
Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
Process algebra for performance evaluation
This paper surveys the theoretical developments in the field of stochastic process algebras, process algebras where action occurrences may be subject to a delay that is determined by a random variable. A huge class of resource-sharing systems – like large-scale computers, client–server architectures, networks – can accurately be described using such stochastic specification formalisms. The main emphasis of this paper is the treatment of operational semantics, notions of equivalence, and (sound and complete) axiomatisations of these equivalences for different types of Markovian process algebras, where delays are governed by exponential distributions. Starting from a simple actionless algebra for describing time-homogeneous continuous-time Markov chains, we consider the integration of actions and random delays both as a single entity (like in known Markovian process algebras like TIPP, PEPA and EMPA) and as separate entities (like in the timed process algebras timed CSP and TCCS). In total we consider four related calculi and investigate their relationship to existing Markovian process algebras. We also briefly indicate how one can profit from the separation of time and actions when incorporating more general, non-Markovian distributions
Some aspects of queueing and storage processes : a thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Statistics at Massey University
In this study the nature of systems consisting of a single queue are first considered. Attention is then drawn to an analogy between such systems and storage systems.
A development of the single queue viz queues with feedback is considered after first considering feedback processes in general. The behaviour of queues, some with feedback loops, combined into networks is then considered. Finally, the application of such networks to the analysis of interconnected reservoir systems is considered and the conclusion drawn that such analytic methods complement the more recently developed mathematical programming methods by providing analytic solutions for
sub systems behaviour and thus guiding the development of a system model
Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Closed Queueing Network Demands from Queue Length Data
Resource demand estimation is essential for the application of analyical models, such as queueing networks, to real-world systems. In this paper, we investigate maximum likelihood (ML) estimators for service demands in closed queueing networks with load-independent and load-dependent service times. Stemming from a characterization of necessary conditions for ML estimation, we propose new estimators that infer demands from queue-length measurements, which are inexpensive metrics to collect in real systems. One advantage of focusing on queue-length data compared to response times or utilizations is that confidence intervals can be rigorously derived from the equilibrium distribution of the queueing network model. Our estimators and their confidence intervals are validated against simulation and real system measurements for a multi-tier application
Non-linear regression models for Approximate Bayesian Computation
Approximate Bayesian inference on the basis of summary statistics is
well-suited to complex problems for which the likelihood is either
mathematically or computationally intractable. However the methods that use
rejection suffer from the curse of dimensionality when the number of summary
statistics is increased. Here we propose a machine-learning approach to the
estimation of the posterior density by introducing two innovations. The new
method fits a nonlinear conditional heteroscedastic regression of the parameter
on the summary statistics, and then adaptively improves estimation using
importance sampling. The new algorithm is compared to the state-of-the-art
approximate Bayesian methods, and achieves considerable reduction of the
computational burden in two examples of inference in statistical genetics and
in a queueing model.Comment: 4 figures; version 3 minor changes; to appear in Statistics and
Computin
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