4,497 research outputs found
Natural Language Generation enhances human decision-making with uncertain information
Decision-making is often dependent on uncertain data, e.g. data associated
with confidence scores or probabilities. We present a comparison of different
information presentations for uncertain data and, for the first time, measure
their effects on human decision-making. We show that the use of Natural
Language Generation (NLG) improves decision-making under uncertainty, compared
to state-of-the-art graphical-based representation methods. In a task-based
study with 442 adults, we found that presentations using NLG lead to 24% better
decision-making on average than the graphical presentations, and to 44% better
decision-making when NLG is combined with graphics. We also show that women
achieve significantly better results when presented with NLG output (an 87%
increase on average compared to graphical presentations).Comment: 54th annual meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics
(ACL), Berlin 201
Generating Weather Forecast Texts with Case Based Reasoning
Several techniques have been used to generate weather forecast texts. In this
paper, case based reasoning (CBR) is proposed for weather forecast text
generation because similar weather conditions occur over time and should have
similar forecast texts. CBR-METEO, a system for generating weather forecast
texts was developed using a generic framework (jCOLIBRI) which provides modules
for the standard components of the CBR architecture. The advantage in a CBR
approach is that systems can be built in minimal time with far less human
effort after initial consultation with experts. The approach depends heavily on
the goodness of the retrieval and revision components of the CBR process. We
evaluated CBRMETEO with NIST, an automated metric which has been shown to
correlate well with human judgements for this domain. The system shows
comparable performance with other NLG systems that perform the same task.Comment: 6 page
Crisis Communication Patterns in Social Media during Hurricane Sandy
Hurricane Sandy was one of the deadliest and costliest of hurricanes over the
past few decades. Many states experienced significant power outage, however
many people used social media to communicate while having limited or no access
to traditional information sources. In this study, we explored the evolution of
various communication patterns using machine learning techniques and determined
user concerns that emerged over the course of Hurricane Sandy. The original
data included ~52M tweets coming from ~13M users between October 14, 2012 and
November 12, 2012. We run topic model on ~763K tweets from top 4,029 most
frequent users who tweeted about Sandy at least 100 times. We identified 250
well-defined communication patterns based on perplexity. Conversations of most
frequent and relevant users indicate the evolution of numerous storm-phase
(warning, response, and recovery) specific topics. People were also concerned
about storm location and time, media coverage, and activities of political
leaders and celebrities. We also present each relevant keyword that contributed
to one particular pattern of user concerns. Such keywords would be particularly
meaningful in targeted information spreading and effective crisis communication
in similar major disasters. Each of these words can also be helpful for
efficient hash-tagging to reach target audience as needed via social media. The
pattern recognition approach of this study can be used in identifying real time
user needs in future crises
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Weather, climate, and hydrologic forecasting for the US Southwest: A survey
As part of a regional integrated assessment of climate vulnerability, a survey was conducted from June 1998 to May 2000 of weather, climate, and hydrologic forecasts with coverage of the US Southwest and an emphasis on the Colorado River Basin. The survey addresses the types of forecasts that were issued, the organizations that provided them, and techniques used in their generation. It reflects discussions with key personnel from organizations involved in producing or issuing forecasts, providing data for making forecasts, or serving as a link for communicating forecasts. During the survey period, users faced a complex and constantly changing mix of forecast products available from a variety of sources. The abundance of forecasts was not matched in the provision of corresponding interpretive materials, documentation about how the forecasts were generated, or reviews of past performance. Potential existed for confusing experimental and research products with others that had undergone a thorough review process, including official products issued by the National Weather Service. Contrasts between the state of meteorologic and hydrologic forecasting were notable, especially in the former's greater operational flexibility and more rapid incorporation of new observations and research products. Greater attention should be given to forecast content and communication, including visualization, expression of probabilistic forecasts and presentation of ancillary information. Regional climate models and use of climate forecasts in water supply forecasting offer rapid improvements in predictive capabilities for the Southwest. Forecasts and production details should be archived, and publicly available forecasts should be accompanied by performance evaluations that are relevant to users
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