A tractable DDN-POMDP Approach to Affective Dialogue Modeling for General Probabilistic Frame-based Dialogue Systems

We propose a new approach to developing a tractable affective dialogue model for general probabilistic frame-based dialogue systems. The dialogue model, based on the Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) and the Dynamic Decision Network (DDN) techniques, is composed of two main parts, the slot level dialogue manager and the global dialogue manager. Our implemented dialogue manager prototype can handle hundreds of slots; each slot might have many values. A first evaluation of the slot level dialogue manager (1-slot case) showed that with a 95% confidence level the DDN-POMDP dialogue strategy outperforms three simple handcrafted dialogue strategies when the user's action error is induced by stress

PrIC3: Property Directed Reachability for MDPs

IC3 has been a leap forward in symbolic model checking. This paper proposes PrIC3 (pronounced pricy-three), a conservative extension of IC3 to symbolic model checking of MDPs. Our main focus is to develop the theory underlying PrIC3. Alongside, we present a first implementation of PrIC3 including the key ingredients from IC3 such as generalization, repushing, and propagation

Probabilistic Interval Temporal Logic and Duration Calculus with Infinite Intervals: Complete Proof Systems

The paper presents probabilistic extensions of interval temporal logic (ITL) and duration calculus (DC) with infinite intervals and complete Hilbert-style proof systems for them. The completeness results are a strong completeness theorem for the system of probabilistic ITL with respect to an abstract semantics and a relative completeness theorem for the system of probabilistic DC with respect to real-time semantics. The proposed systems subsume probabilistic real-time DC as known from the literature. A correspondence between the proposed systems and a system of probabilistic interval temporal logic with finite intervals and expanding modalities is established too.Comment: 43 page

Approximate Bayesian Image Interpretation using Generative Probabilistic Graphics Programs

The idea of computer vision as the Bayesian inverse problem to computer graphics has a long history and an appealing elegance, but it has proved difficult to directly implement. Instead, most vision tasks are approached via complex bottom-up processing pipelines. Here we show that it is possible to write short, simple probabilistic graphics programs that define flexible generative models and to automatically invert them to interpret real-world images. Generative probabilistic graphics programs consist of a stochastic scene generator, a renderer based on graphics software, a stochastic likelihood model linking the renderer's output and the data, and latent variables that adjust the fidelity of the renderer and the tolerance of the likelihood model. Representations and algorithms from computer graphics, originally designed to produce high-quality images, are instead used as the deterministic backbone for highly approximate and stochastic generative models. This formulation combines probabilistic programming, computer graphics, and approximate Bayesian computation, and depends only on general-purpose, automatic inference techniques. We describe two applications: reading sequences of degraded and adversarially obscured alphanumeric characters, and inferring 3D road models from vehicle-mounted camera images. Each of the probabilistic graphics programs we present relies on under 20 lines of probabilistic code, and supports accurate, approximately Bayesian inferences about ambiguous real-world images.Comment: The first two authors contributed equally to this wor