19,287 research outputs found

    Probabilistic estimation of uncertain temporal relations

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    A wide range of AI applications should manage time varying information, for example, temporal databases, reservation systems, keeping medical records, financial applications, planning. Many published research articles in the area of temporal representation and reasoning assume that temporal data is precise and certain, even though in reality this assumption is often false. In many situations there is a need to know the relation between two temporal intervals, as it is, for example, during query processing. Indeterminacy means that we do not know exactly when a particular event happened. When two temporal intervals are indeterminate it is in many cases impossible to derive a certain temporal relation between them.Keywords: Uncertain temporal relation, point, interval, probability

    On Quantifying Qualitative Geospatial Data: A Probabilistic Approach

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    Living in the era of data deluge, we have witnessed a web content explosion, largely due to the massive availability of User-Generated Content (UGC). In this work, we specifically consider the problem of geospatial information extraction and representation, where one can exploit diverse sources of information (such as image and audio data, text data, etc), going beyond traditional volunteered geographic information. Our ambition is to include available narrative information in an effort to better explain geospatial relationships: with spatial reasoning being a basic form of human cognition, narratives expressing such experiences typically contain qualitative spatial data, i.e., spatial objects and spatial relationships. To this end, we formulate a quantitative approach for the representation of qualitative spatial relations extracted from UGC in the form of texts. The proposed method quantifies such relations based on multiple text observations. Such observations provide distance and orientation features which are utilized by a greedy Expectation Maximization-based (EM) algorithm to infer a probability distribution over predefined spatial relationships; the latter represent the quantified relationships under user-defined probabilistic assumptions. We evaluate the applicability and quality of the proposed approach using real UGC data originating from an actual travel blog text corpus. To verify the quality of the result, we generate grid-based maps visualizing the spatial extent of the various relations

    Uncertainty Updating in the Description of Coupled Heat and Moisture Transport in Heterogeneous Materials

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    To assess the durability of structures, heat and moisture transport need to be analyzed. To provide a reliable estimation of heat and moisture distribution in a certain structure, one needs to include all available information about the loading conditions and material parameters. Moreover, the information should be accompanied by a corresponding evaluation of its credibility. Here, the Bayesian inference is applied to combine different sources of information, so as to provide a more accurate estimation of heat and moisture fields [1]. The procedure is demonstrated on the probabilistic description of heterogeneous material where the uncertainties consist of a particular value of individual material characteristic and spatial fluctuations. As for the heat and moisture transfer, it is modelled in coupled setting [2]

    Scalable Probabilistic Similarity Ranking in Uncertain Databases (Technical Report)

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    This paper introduces a scalable approach for probabilistic top-k similarity ranking on uncertain vector data. Each uncertain object is represented by a set of vector instances that are assumed to be mutually-exclusive. The objective is to rank the uncertain data according to their distance to a reference object. We propose a framework that incrementally computes for each object instance and ranking position, the probability of the object falling at that ranking position. The resulting rank probability distribution can serve as input for several state-of-the-art probabilistic ranking models. Existing approaches compute this probability distribution by applying a dynamic programming approach of quadratic complexity. In this paper we theoretically as well as experimentally show that our framework reduces this to a linear-time complexity while having the same memory requirements, facilitated by incremental accessing of the uncertain vector instances in increasing order of their distance to the reference object. Furthermore, we show how the output of our method can be used to apply probabilistic top-k ranking for the objects, according to different state-of-the-art definitions. We conduct an experimental evaluation on synthetic and real data, which demonstrates the efficiency of our approach

    Impulsive people have a compulsion for immediate gratification-certain or uncertain.

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    Impulsivity has been defined as choosing the smaller more immediate reward over a larger more delayed reward. The purpose of this research was to gain a deeper understanding of the mental processes involved in the decision making. We examined participants' rates of delay discounting and probability discounting to determine their correlation with time-probability trade-offs. To establish the time-probability trade-off rate, participants adjusted a risky, immediate payoff to a delayed, certain payoff. In effect, this yielded a probability equivalent of waiting time. We found a strong, positive correlation between delay discount rates and the time-probability trade-offs. This means that impulsive people have a compulsion for immediate gratification, independent of whether the immediate reward is certain or uncertain. Thus, they seem not to be concerned with risk but rather with time

    Probabilistic Bisimulations for PCTL Model Checking of Interval MDPs

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    Verification of PCTL properties of MDPs with convex uncertainties has been investigated recently by Puggelli et al. However, model checking algorithms typically suffer from state space explosion. In this paper, we address probabilistic bisimulation to reduce the size of such an MDPs while preserving PCTL properties it satisfies. We discuss different interpretations of uncertainty in the models which are studied in the literature and that result in two different definitions of bisimulations. We give algorithms to compute the quotients of these bisimulations in time polynomial in the size of the model and exponential in the uncertain branching. Finally, we show by a case study that large models in practice can have small branching and that a substantial state space reduction can be achieved by our approach.Comment: In Proceedings SynCoP 2014, arXiv:1403.784

    Technical Report: Distribution Temporal Logic: Combining Correctness with Quality of Estimation

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    We present a new temporal logic called Distribution Temporal Logic (DTL) defined over predicates of belief states and hidden states of partially observable systems. DTL can express properties involving uncertainty and likelihood that cannot be described by existing logics. A co-safe formulation of DTL is defined and algorithmic procedures are given for monitoring executions of a partially observable Markov decision process with respect to such formulae. A simulation case study of a rescue robotics application outlines our approach.Comment: More expanded version of "Distribution Temporal Logic: Combining Correctness with Quality of Estimation" to appear in IEEE CDC 201
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