Prediction of extreme events in the OFC model on a small world network

We investigate the predictability of extreme events in a dissipative Olami-Feder-Christensen model on a small world topology. Due to the mechanism of self-organized criticality, it is impossible to predict the magnitude of the next event knowing previous ones, if the system has an infinite size. However, by exploiting the finite size effects, we show that probabilistic predictions of the occurrence of extreme events in the next time step are possible in a finite system. In particular, the finiteness of the system unavoidably leads to repulsive temporal correlations of extreme events. The predictability of those is higher for larger magnitudes and for larger complex network sizes. Finally, we show that our prediction analysis is also robust by remarkably reducing the accessible number of events used to construct the optimal predictor.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Ant colony system-based applications to electrical distribution system optimization

Chapter 16, February 201

Operating Risk Assessment of Modern Power System in Presence of Flywheel Energy Storage

Stochastic perturbations in supply and demand during power system operations have always been a concern for power system operators and/or planners. These concerns have been aggravated in the past decade with large-scale integration of renewable energy sources (RES) such as wind and photovoltaics. The impacts of load fluctuations and/or random outages of major system components during the operation, such as loss of generating unit(s) and transmission line(s) are further aggravated due to increasing addition of intermittent RES in the system. Energy storage systems (ESS) can act as a buffer to maintain the supply-demand balance, and are therefore, gaining considerable attention in modern power system planning. It is important to have the ability to make quantitative assessment of associated risks in the system operation and to explore the potential of suitable resources such as ESS in mitigating these risks. A reliability model of flywheel energy storage system (FESS) suitable for power system operational risk evaluation was developed in the research work presented in this thesis. Appropriate reliability assessment frameworks for different hierarchical levels of power system reliability evaluation were also introduced. The proposed frameworks and models were applied to the IEEE reliability test system and a modified Roy Billinton test system through several case studies. This thesis presents a novel approach to quantify the impact of growing wind penetration on power system operational reliability and quantify the implications of implementing flywheel energy storage systems in mitigating these concerns. The work presented in this thesis provides methodology and indicators that will be valuable in developing operating policies for sustainable wind energy for the future