Mixed Logical and Probabilistic Reasoning in the Game of Clue

Neller and Ziqian Luo ’18 presented a means of mixed logical and probabilistic reasoning with knowledge in the popular deductive mystery game Clue. Using at-least constraints, we more efficiently represented and reasoned about cardinality constraints on Clue card deal knowledge, and then employed a WalkSAT-based solution sampling algorithm with a tabu search metaheuristic in order to estimate the probabilities of unknown card places

Inference with Constrained Hidden Markov Models in PRISM

A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a common statistical model which is widely used for analysis of biological sequence data and other sequential phenomena. In the present paper we show how HMMs can be extended with side-constraints and present constraint solving techniques for efficient inference. Defining HMMs with side-constraints in Constraint Logic Programming have advantages in terms of more compact expression and pruning opportunities during inference. We present a PRISM-based framework for extending HMMs with side-constraints and show how well-known constraints such as cardinality and all different are integrated. We experimentally validate our approach on the biologically motivated problem of global pairwise alignment

Estimating the Number of Solutions of Cardinality Constraints through range and roots Decompositions

International audienceThis paper introduces a systematic approach for estimating the number of solutions of cardinality constraints. A main difficulty of solutions counting on a specific constraint lies in the fact that it is, in general, at least as hard as developing the constraint and its propaga-tors, as it has been shown on alldifferent and gcc constraints. This paper introduces a probabilistic model to systematically estimate the number of solutions on a large family of cardinality constraints including alldifferent, nvalue, atmost, etc. Our approach is based on their decomposition into range and roots, and exhibits a general pattern to derive such estimates based on the edge density of the associated variable-value graph. Our theoretical result is finally implemented within the maxSD search heuristic, that aims at exploring first the area where there are likely more solutions

Sequential Randomized Algorithms for Convex Optimization in the Presence of Uncertainty

In this paper, we propose new sequential randomized algorithms for convex optimization problems in the presence of uncertainty. A rigorous analysis of the theoretical properties of the solutions obtained by these algorithms, for full constraint satisfaction and partial constraint satisfaction, respectively, is given. The proposed methods allow to enlarge the applicability of the existing randomized methods to real-world applications involving a large number of design variables. Since the proposed approach does not provide a priori bounds on the sample complexity, extensive numerical simulations, dealing with an application to hard-disk drive servo design, are provided. These simulations testify the goodness of the proposed solution.Comment: 18 pages, Submitted for publication to IEEE Transactions on Automatic Contro

On Probabilistic Certification of Combined Cancer Therapies Using Strongly Uncertain Models

This paper proposes a general framework for probabilistic certification of cancer therapies. The certification is defined in terms of two key issues which are the tumor contraction and the lower admissible bound on the circulating lymphocytes which is viewed as indicator of the patient health. The certification is viewed as the ability to guarantee with a predefined high probability the success of the therapy over a finite horizon despite of the unavoidable high uncertainties affecting the dynamic model that is used to compute the optimal scheduling of drugs injection. The certification paradigm can be viewed as a tool for tuning the treatment parameters and protocols as well as for getting a rational use of limited or expensive drugs. The proposed framework is illustrated using the specific problem of combined immunotherapy/chemotherapy of cancer.Comment: Submitted to Journal of theoretical Biolog