COMPILATION OF ACTIVE FAULT DATA IN PORTUGAL FOR USE IN SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS

To estimate where future earthquakes are likely to occur, it is essential to combine information about past earthquakes with knowledge about the location and seismogenic properties of active faults. For this reason, robust probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) integrates seismicity and active fault data. Existing seismic hazard assessments for Portugal rely exclusively on seismicity data and do not incorporate data on active faults. Project SHARE (Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe) is an EC-funded initiative (FP7) that aims to evaluate European seismic hazards using an integrated, standardized approach. In the context of SHARE, we are developing a fully-parameterized active fault database for Portugal that incorporates existing compilations, updated according to the most recent publications. The seismogenic source model derived for SHARE will be the first model for Portugal to include fault data and follow an internationally standardized approach. This model can be used to improve both seismic hazard and risk analyses and will be combined with the Spanish database for use in Iberian- and European-scale assessments

A probabilistic model for information and sensor validation

This paper develops a new theory and model for information and sensor validation. The model represents relationships between variables using Bayesian networks and utilizes probabilistic propagation to estimate the expected values of variables. If the estimated value of a variable differs from the actual value, an apparent fault is detected. The fault is only apparent since it may be that the estimated value is itself based on faulty data. The theory extends our understanding of when it is possible to isolate real faults from potential faults and supports the development of an algorithm that is capable of isolating real faults without deferring the problem to the use of expert provided domain-specific rules. To enable practical adoption for real-time processes, an any time version of the algorithm is developed, that, unlike most other algorithms, is capable of returning improving assessments of the validity of the sensors as it accumulates more evidence with time. The developed model is tested by applying it to the validation of temperature sensors during the start-up phase of a gas turbine when conditions are not stable; a problem that is known to be challenging. The paper concludes with a discussion of the practical applicability and scalability of the model

On Fault Diagnosis of random Free-choice Petri Nets

This paper presents an on-line diagnosis algorithm for Petri nets where a priori probabilistic knowledge about the plant operation is available. We follow the method developed by Benveniste, Fabre, and Haar to assign probabilities to configurations in a net unfolding thus avoiding the need for randomizing all concurrent interleavings of transitions. We consider different settings of the diagnosis problem, including estimating the likelihood that a fault may have happened prior to the most recent observed event, the likelihood that a fault will have happened prior to the next observed event. A novel problem formulation treated in this paper considers deterministic diagnosis of faults that occurred prior to the most recent observed event, and simultaneous calculation of the likelihood that a fault will occur prior to the next observed event

Fault Tolerance in Cellular Automata at High Fault Rates

A commonly used model for fault-tolerant computation is that of cellular automata. The essential difficulty of fault-tolerant computation is present in the special case of simply remembering a bit in the presence of faults, and that is the case we treat in this paper. We are concerned with the degree (the number of neighboring cells on which the state transition function depends) needed to achieve fault tolerance when the fault rate is high (nearly 1/2). We consider both the traditional transient fault model (where faults occur independently in time and space) and a recently introduced combined fault model which also includes manufacturing faults (which occur independently in space, but which affect cells for all time). We also consider both a purely probabilistic fault model (in which the states of cells are perturbed at exactly the fault rate) and an adversarial model (in which the occurrence of a fault gives control of the state to an omniscient adversary). We show that there are cellular automata that can tolerate a fault rate $1/2 - \xi$ (with $\xi>0$) with degree $O((1/\xi^2)\log(1/\xi))$, even with adversarial combined faults. The simplest such automata are based on infinite regular trees, but our results also apply to other structures (such as hyperbolic tessellations) that contain infinite regular trees. We also obtain a lower bound of $\Omega(1/\xi^2)$, even with purely probabilistic transient faults only

Robust H∞ filtering for time-delay systems with probabilistic sensor faults

Copyright [2009] IEEE. This material is posted here with permission of the IEEE. Such permission of the IEEE does not in any way imply IEEE endorsement of any of Brunel University's products or services. Internal or personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution must be obtained from the IEEE by writing to [email protected]. By choosing to view this document, you agree to all provisions of the copyright laws protecting it.In this paper, a new robust H∞ filtering problem is investigated for a class of time-varying nonlinear system with norm-bounded parameter uncertainties, bounded state delay, sector-bounded nonlinearity and probabilistic sensor gain faults. The probabilistic sensor reductions are modeled by using a random variable that obeys a specific distribution in a known interval [alpha,beta], which accounts for the following two phenomenon: 1) signal stochastic attenuation in unreliable analog channel and 2) random sensor gain reduction in severe environment. The main task is to design a robust H∞ filter such that, for all possible uncertain measurements, system parameter uncertainties, nonlinearity as well as time-varying delays, the filtering error dynamics is asymptotically mean-square stable with a prescribed H∞ performance level. A sufficient condition for the existence of such a filter is presented in terms of the feasibility of a certain linear matrix inequality (LMI). A numerical example is introduced to illustrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed methodology

Resilient random modulo cache memories for probabilistically-analyzable real-time systems

Fault tolerance has often been assessed separately in safety-related real-time systems, which may lead to inefficient solutions. Recently, Measurement-Based Probabilistic Timing Analysis (MBPTA) has been proposed to estimate Worst-Case Execution Time (WCET) on high performance hardware. The intrinsic probabilistic nature of MBPTA-commpliant hardware matches perfectly with the random nature of hardware faults. Joint WCET analysis and reliability assessment has been done so far for some MBPTA-compliant designs, but not for the most promising cache design: random modulo. In this paper we perform, for the first time, an assessment of the aging-robustness of random modulo and propose new implementations preserving the key properties of random modulo, a.k.a. low critical path impact, low miss rates and MBPTA compliance, while enhancing reliability in front of aging by achieving a better – yet random – activity distribution across cache sets.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft