Space Projects: Improvements Needed in Selecting Future Projects for Private Financing

The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and NASA jointly selected seven projects for commercialization to reduce NASA's fiscal year 1990 budget request and to help achieve the goal of increasing private sector involvement in space. However, the efforts to privately finance these seven projects did not increase the commercial sector's involvement in space to the extent desired. The General Accounting Office (GAO) determined that the projects selected were not a fair test of the potential of increasing commercial investment in space at an acceptable cost to the government, primarily because the projects were not properly screened. That is, neither their suitability for commercialization nor the economic consequences of seeking private financing for them were adequately evaluated before selection. Evaluations and market tests done after selection showed that most of the projects were not viable candidates for private financing. GAO concluded that projects should not be removed from NASA's budget for commercial development until after careful screening has been done to determine whether adequate commercial demand exists, development risks are commercially acceptable and private financing is found or judged to be highly likely, and the cost effectiveness of such a decision is acceptable. Premature removal of projects from NASA's budget ultimately can cause project delays and increased costs when unsuccessful commercialization candidates must be returned to the budget. NASA also needs to ensure appropriate comparisons of government and private financing options for future commercialization projects

Breeding programs on Atlantic salmon in Norway: lessons learned

An early establishment of selective breeding programs on Atlantic salmon has been crucial for the success of developing efficient and sustainable salmon farming in Norway. A national selective breeding program was initiated by AKVAFORSK at the beginning of the 1970s, by collecting fertilized eggs from more than 40 Norwegian river populations. Several private selective breeding programs were also initiated in the 1970s and 1980s. While these private programs were initiated using individual selection (i.e. massselection) to genetically improve growth, the national program was designed to gradually include all economically important traits in the breeding objective (i.e. growth, age at sexual maturation, disease resistance and quality traits) using a combined family and within-family selection strategy. Independent of which selection strategy and program design used, it is important to secure and maintain a broad genetic variation in the breeding populations to maximize selection response. It has been documented that genetically improved salmon from the national selective breeding program grow twice as fast as wild Atlantic salmon and require 25 per cent less feed, while salmon representing the private breeding programs all show an intermediate growth performance. As a result of efficient dissemination of genetically improved Atlantic salmon, the Norwegian salmon farming industry has reduced its feed costs by more than US$ 230 million per year! The national selective breeding program on Atlantic salmon was commercialized into a breeding company (AquaGen) in 1992. Five years later, several private companies and the AKVAFORSK Genetics Center (AFGC) established a second breeding company (SalmoBreed) using breeding candidates from one of the private breeding programs. These two breeding companies have similar products, but different strategies on how to organize the breeding program and to disseminate the genetically improved seed to the Norwegian salmon industry. Greater competition has increased the necessity to document the genetic gain obtained from the different programs and to market the economic benefits of farming the genetically improved breeds. Both breeding companies have organized their dissemination to get a sufficient share of the economic benefits in order to sustain and improve their breeding programs

Population History and Gene Divergence in Native Mexicans Inferred from 76 Human Exomes.

Native American genetic variation remains underrepresented in most catalogs of human genome sequencing data. Previous genotyping efforts have revealed that Mexico's Indigenous population is highly differentiated and substructured, thus potentially harboring higher proportions of private genetic variants of functional and biomedical relevance. Here we have targeted the coding fraction of the genome and characterized its full site frequency spectrum by sequencing 76 exomes from five Indigenous populations across Mexico. Using diffusion approximations, we modeled the demographic history of Indigenous populations from Mexico with northern and southern ethnic groups splitting 7.2 KYA and subsequently diverging locally 6.5 and 5.7 KYA, respectively. Selection scans for positive selection revealed BCL2L13 and KBTBD8 genes as potential candidates for adaptive evolution in Rarámuris and Triquis, respectively. BCL2L13 is highly expressed in skeletal muscle and could be related to physical endurance, a well-known phenotype of the northern Mexico Rarámuri. The KBTBD8 gene has been associated with idiopathic short stature and we found it to be highly differentiated in Triqui, a southern Indigenous group from Oaxaca whose height is extremely low compared to other Native populations

Beliefs in Decision-Making Cascades

This work explores a social learning problem with agents having nonidentical noise variances and mismatched beliefs. We consider an $N$-agent binary hypothesis test in which each agent sequentially makes a decision based not only on a private observation, but also on preceding agents' decisions. In addition, the agents have their own beliefs instead of the true prior, and have nonidentical noise variances in the private signal. We focus on the Bayes risk of the last agent, where preceding agents are selfish. We first derive the optimal decision rule by recursive belief update and conclude, counterintuitively, that beliefs deviating from the true prior could be optimal in this setting. The effect of nonidentical noise levels in the two-agent case is also considered and analytical properties of the optimal belief curves are given. Next, we consider a predecessor selection problem wherein the subsequent agent of a certain belief chooses a predecessor from a set of candidates with varying beliefs. We characterize the decision region for choosing such a predecessor and argue that a subsequent agent with beliefs varying from the true prior often ends up selecting a suboptimal predecessor, indicating the need for a social planner. Lastly, we discuss an augmented intelligence design problem that uses a model of human behavior from cumulative prospect theory and investigate its near-optimality and suboptimality.Comment: final version, to appear in IEEE Transactions on Signal Processin

Breeding programs on Atlantic salmon in Norway: lessons learned

An early establishment of selective breeding programs on Atlantic salmon has been crucial for the success of developing efficient and sustainable salmon farming in Norway. A national selective breeding program was initiated by AKVAFORSK at the beginning of the 1970s, by collecting fertilized eggs from more than 40 Norwegian river populations. Several private selective breeding programs were also initiated in the 1970s and 1980s. While these private programs were initiated using individual selection (i.e. massselection) to genetically improve growth, the national program was designed to gradually include all economically important traits in the breeding objective (i.e. growth, age at sexual maturation, disease resistance and quality traits) using a combined family and within-family selection strategy. Independent of which selection strategy and program design used, it is important to secure and maintain a broad genetic variation in the breeding populations to maximize selection response. It has been documented that genetically improved salmon from the national selective breeding program grow twice as fast as wild Atlantic salmon and require 25 per cent less feed, while salmon representing the private breeding programs all show an intermediate growth performance. As a result of efficient dissemination of genetically improved Atlantic salmon, the Norwegian salmon farming industry has reduced its feed costs by more than US$ 230 million per year! The national selective breeding program on Atlantic salmon was commercialized into a breeding company (AquaGen) in 1992. Five years later, several private companies and the AKVAFORSK Genetics Center (AFGC) established a second breeding company (SalmoBreed) using breeding candidates from one of the private breeding programs. These two breeding companies have similar products, but different strategies on how to organize the breeding program and to disseminate the genetically improved seed to the Norwegian salmon industry. Greater competition has increased the necessity to document the genetic gain obtained from the different programs and to market the economic benefits of farming the genetically improved breeds. Both breeding companies have organized their dissemination to get a sufficient share of the economic benefits in order to sustain and improve their breeding programs.Biotechnology, Genetics, Food fish, Genetic drift, Genetic diversity, Aquatic animals, DNA, Selective breeding, Breeding success, Research programmes Salmonidae

Beliefs and expertise in sequential decision making

This work explores a sequential decision making problem with agents having diverse expertise and mismatched beliefs. We consider an N-agent sequential binary hypothesis test in which each agent sequentially makes a decision based not only on a private observation, but also on previous agents’ decisions. In addition, the agents have their own beliefs instead of the true prior, and have varying expertise in terms of the noise variance in the private signal. We focus on the risk of the last-acting agent, where precedent agents are selfish. Thus, we call this advisor(s)-advisee sequential decision making. We first derive the optimal decision rule by recursive belief update and conclude, counterintuitively, that beliefs deviating from the true prior could be optimal in this setting. The impact of diverse noise levels (which means diverse expertise levels) in the two-agent case is also considered and the analytical properties of the optimal belief curves are given. These curves, for certain cases, resemble probability weighting functions from cumulative prospect theory, and so we also discuss the choice of Prelec weighting functions as an approximation for the optimal beliefs, and the possible psychophysical optimality of human beliefs. Next, we consider an advisor selection problem where in the advisee of a certain belief chooses an advisor from a set of candidates with varying beliefs. We characterize the decision region for choosing such an advisor and argue that an advisee with beliefs varying from the true prior often ends up selecting a suboptimal advisor, indicating the need for a social planner. We close with a discussion on the implications of the study toward designing artificial intelligence systems for augmenting human intelligence.https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.04419First author draf

Do Better Paid Politicians Perform Better? Disentangling Incentives from Selection

The wage paid to politicians affects both the choice of citizens to run for an elective office and the performance of those who are appointed. First, if skilled individuals shy away from politics because of higher opportunities in the private sector, an increase in politicians' pay may change their mind. Second, if the reelection prospects of incumbents depend on their in-office deeds, a higher wage may foster performance. We use data on all Italian municipal governments from 1993 to 2001 and test these hypotheses in a quasi-experimental framework. In Italy, the wage of the mayor depends on population size and sharply rises at different thresholds. We apply a regression discontinuity design to the only threshold that uniquely identifies a wage increase – 5,000 inhabitants – to control for unobservable town characteristics. Exploiting the existence of a two-term limit, we further disentangle the composition from the incentive component of the effect of the wage on performance. Our results show that a higher wage attracts more educated candidates, and that better paid politicians size down the government machinery by improving internal efficiency. Importantly, most of this performance effect is driven by the selection of competent politicians, rather than by the incentive to be reelected.political selection, efficiency wage, term limit, local finance, regression discontinuity design

Inclusão de pessoas com deficiência nos cursos de medicina no Brasil: uma análise dos cursos ofertados para ingresso no ano de 2022

This paper analyzes the inclusion of People with Disabilities (PcDs) in undergraduate medical courses offered in Brazil. Such an approach is necessary since there is little information on the subject in the academic environment. The objective of this work is to analyze how public and private Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) allow PwDs to enroll in their courses and how the selection processes for this purpose are structured. For that, a documentary research was carried out combined with descriptive statistics as an analysis method. The research showed lack of attention from both public and private HEIs in relation to PwD candidates, both in relation to the offer of vacancies, as well as the care and adaptations necessary for carrying out the selection processes, especially in private HEIs.Este trabalho analisa a inclusão de Pessoas com Deficiências (PcDs) nos cursos de graduação em medicina ofertados no Brasil. Tal abordagem se faz necessária uma vez que há pouca informação sobre o tema no ambiente acadêmico. O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar como as Instituições de Ensino Superior (IES) públicas e privadas oportunizam o ingresso de PcDs em seus cursos e como são estruturados os processos seletivos para esta finalidade. Para tanto foi realizada uma pesquisa documental combinada com a estatística descritiva como método de análise. A pesquisa evidenciou desatenção tanto das IES públicas quanto privadas em relação aos candidatos PcDs tanto no que se relaciona com a oferta de vagas, quanto aos cuidados e adaptações necessárias para a realização dos processos seletivos, em especial nas IES privadas

Modeling tuition fees in presence of social heterogeneity

International audienceTuition fees have been spreading through developed countries in the last decade. Beyond the obvious interest of funding universities, it is advocated that they could serve as a tool to select students. According to some recent models, in presence of asymmetric and imperfect information on the candidates' capacities, tuition should be the only selection device, at the expense of tests. Following Bourdieu's seminal work on higher education, we consider that powerful sociologic mechanisms induce social reproduction. These effects must be taken into account to understand the behaviour of potential students. In particular, candidates from lower social groups may underestimate their capacities. Therefore, we introduce heterogeneity in potential students' private evaluation of their own capacities. As a result, we obtain that tuition fees do not lead to social optimum, because talented member discard themselves. This effect gets only stronger as entrance tests are abandoned. Nevertheless, we do not recommend strong selecting tests, since the same sociologic mechanisms negatively biased the results of applicants from lower social groups