2,854 research outputs found

    Mortality modelling and forecasting: a review of methods

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    Monotone approximation of aggregation operators using least squares splines

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    The need for monotone approximation of scattered data often arises in many problems of regression, when the monotonicity is semantically important. One such domain is fuzzy set theory, where membership functions and aggregation operators are order preserving. Least squares polynomial splines provide great flexbility when modeling non-linear functions, but may fail to be monotone. Linear restrictions on spline coefficients provide necessary and sufficient conditions for spline monotonicity. The basis for splines is selected in such a way that these restrictions take an especially simple form. The resulting non-negative least squares problem can be solved by a variety of standard proven techniques. Additional interpolation requirements can also be imposed in the same framework. The method is applied to fuzzy systems, where membership functions and aggregation operators are constructed from empirical data.<br /

    Biplots of fuzzy coded data

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    A biplot, which is the multivariate generalization of the two-variable scatterplot, can be used to visualize the results of many multivariate techniques, especially those that are based on the singular value decomposition. We consider data sets consisting of continuous-scale measurements, their fuzzy coding and the biplots that visualize them, using a fuzzy version of multiple correspondence analysis. Of special interest is the way quality of fit of the biplot is measured, since it is well-known that regular (i.e., crisp) multiple correspondence analysis seriously under-estimates this measure. We show how the results of fuzzy multiple correspondence analysis can be defuzzified to obtain estimated values of the original data, and prove that this implies an orthogonal decomposition of variance. This permits a measure of fit to be calculated in the familiar form of a percentage of explained variance, which is directly comparable to the corresponding fit measure used in principal component analysis of the original data. The approach is motivated initially by its application to a simulated data set, showing how the fuzzy approach can lead to diagnosing nonlinear relationships, and finally it is applied to a real set of meteorological data.defuzzification, fuzzy coding, indicator matrix, measure of fit, multivariate data, multiple correspondence analysis, principal component analysis.

    Representing complex data using localized principal components with application to astronomical data

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    Often the relation between the variables constituting a multivariate data space might be characterized by one or more of the terms: ``nonlinear'', ``branched'', ``disconnected'', ``bended'', ``curved'', ``heterogeneous'', or, more general, ``complex''. In these cases, simple principal component analysis (PCA) as a tool for dimension reduction can fail badly. Of the many alternative approaches proposed so far, local approximations of PCA are among the most promising. This paper will give a short review of localized versions of PCA, focusing on local principal curves and local partitioning algorithms. Furthermore we discuss projections other than the local principal components. When performing local dimension reduction for regression or classification problems it is important to focus not only on the manifold structure of the covariates, but also on the response variable(s). Local principal components only achieve the former, whereas localized regression approaches concentrate on the latter. Local projection directions derived from the partial least squares (PLS) algorithm offer an interesting trade-off between these two objectives. We apply these methods to several real data sets. In particular, we consider simulated astrophysical data from the future Galactic survey mission Gaia.Comment: 25 pages. In "Principal Manifolds for Data Visualization and Dimension Reduction", A. Gorban, B. Kegl, D. Wunsch, and A. Zinovyev (eds), Lecture Notes in Computational Science and Engineering, Springer, 2007, pp. 180--204, http://www.springer.com/dal/home/generic/search/results?SGWID=1-40109-22-173750210-

    The Data Big Bang and the Expanding Digital Universe: High-Dimensional, Complex and Massive Data Sets in an Inflationary Epoch

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    Recent and forthcoming advances in instrumentation, and giant new surveys, are creating astronomical data sets that are not amenable to the methods of analysis familiar to astronomers. Traditional methods are often inadequate not merely because of the size in bytes of the data sets, but also because of the complexity of modern data sets. Mathematical limitations of familiar algorithms and techniques in dealing with such data sets create a critical need for new paradigms for the representation, analysis and scientific visualization (as opposed to illustrative visualization) of heterogeneous, multiresolution data across application domains. Some of the problems presented by the new data sets have been addressed by other disciplines such as applied mathematics, statistics and machine learning and have been utilized by other sciences such as space-based geosciences. Unfortunately, valuable results pertaining to these problems are mostly to be found only in publications outside of astronomy. Here we offer brief overviews of a number of concepts, techniques and developments, some "old" and some new. These are generally unknown to most of the astronomical community, but are vital to the analysis and visualization of complex datasets and images. In order for astronomers to take advantage of the richness and complexity of the new era of data, and to be able to identify, adopt, and apply new solutions, the astronomical community needs a certain degree of awareness and understanding of the new concepts. One of the goals of this paper is to help bridge the gap between applied mathematics, artificial intelligence and computer science on the one side and astronomy on the other.Comment: 24 pages, 8 Figures, 1 Table. Accepted for publication: "Advances in Astronomy, special issue "Robotic Astronomy

    Recent advances in directional statistics

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    Mainstream statistical methodology is generally applicable to data observed in Euclidean space. There are, however, numerous contexts of considerable scientific interest in which the natural supports for the data under consideration are Riemannian manifolds like the unit circle, torus, sphere and their extensions. Typically, such data can be represented using one or more directions, and directional statistics is the branch of statistics that deals with their analysis. In this paper we provide a review of the many recent developments in the field since the publication of Mardia and Jupp (1999), still the most comprehensive text on directional statistics. Many of those developments have been stimulated by interesting applications in fields as diverse as astronomy, medicine, genetics, neurology, aeronautics, acoustics, image analysis, text mining, environmetrics, and machine learning. We begin by considering developments for the exploratory analysis of directional data before progressing to distributional models, general approaches to inference, hypothesis testing, regression, nonparametric curve estimation, methods for dimension reduction, classification and clustering, and the modelling of time series, spatial and spatio-temporal data. An overview of currently available software for analysing directional data is also provided, and potential future developments discussed.Comment: 61 page
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