Transmission Modeling with Smartphone-based Sensing

Infectious disease spread is difficult to accurately measure and model. Even for well-studied pathogens, uncertainties remain regarding the dynamics of mixing behavior and how to balance simulation-generated estimates with empirical data. Smartphone-based sensing data promises the availability of inferred proximate contacts, with which we can improve transmission models. This dissertation addresses the problem of informing transmission models with proximity contact data by breaking it down into three sub-questions. Firstly, can proximity contact data inform transmission models? To this question, an extended-Kalman-filter enhanced System Dynamics Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (EKF-SD-SIR) model demonstrated the filtering approach, as a framework, for informing Systems Dynamics models with proximity contact data. This combination results in recurrently-regrounded system status as empirical data arrive throughout disease transmission simulations---simultaneously considering empirical data accuracy, growing simulation error between measurements, and supporting estimation of changing model parameters. However, as revealed by this investigation, this filtering approach is limited by the quality and reliability of sensing-informed proximate contacts, which leads to the dissertation's second and third questions---investigating the impact of temporal and spatial resolution on sensing inferred proximity contact data for transmission models. GPS co-location and Bluetooth beaconing are two of those common measurement modalities to sense proximity contacts with different underlying technologies and tradeoffs. However, both measurement modalities have shortcomings and are prone to false positives or negatives when used to detect proximate contacts because unmeasured environmental influences bias the data. Will differences in sensing modalities impact transmission models informed by proximity contact data? The second part of this dissertation compares GPS- and Bluetooth-inferred proximate contacts by accessing their impact on simulated attack rates in corresponding proximate-contact-informed agent-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (ABM-SEIR) models of four distinct contagious diseases. Results show that the inferred proximate contacts resulting from these two measurement modalities are different and give rise to significantly different attack rates across multiple data collections and pathogens. While the advent of commodity mobile devices has eased the collection of proximity contact data, battery capacity and associated costs impose tradeoffs between the frequency and scanning duration used for proximate-contact detection. The choice of a balanced sensing regime involves specifying temporal resolutions and interpreting sensing data---depending on circumstances such as the characteristics of a particular pathogen, accompanying disease, and underlying population. How will the temporal resolution of sensing impact transmission models informed by proximity contact data? Furthermore, how will circumstances alter the impact of temporal resolution? The third part of this dissertation investigates the impacts of sensing regimes on findings from two sampling methods of sensing at widely varying inter-observation intervals by synthetically downsampling proximity contact data from five contact network studies---with each of these five studies measuring participant-participant contact every 5 minutes for durations of four or more weeks. The impact of downsampling is evaluated through ABM-SEIR simulations from both population- and individual-level for 12 distinct contagious diseases and associated variants of concern. Studies in this part find that for epidemiological models employing proximity contact data, both the observation paradigms and the inter-observation interval configured to collect proximity contact data exert impacts on the simulation results. Moreover, the impact is subject to the population characteristics and pathogen infectiousness reflective (such as the basic reproduction number, $R_0$). By comparing the performance of two sampling methods of sensing, we found that in most cases, periodically observing for a certain duration can collect proximity contact data that allows agent-based models to produce a reasonable estimation of the attack rate. However, higher-resolution data are preferred for modeling individual infection risk. Findings from this part of the dissertation represent a step towards providing the empirical basis for guidelines to inform data collection that is at once efficient and effective. This dissertation addresses the problem of informing transmission models with proximity contact data in three steps. Firstly, the demonstration of an EKF-SD-SIR model suggests that the filtering approach could improve System Dynamics transmission models by leveraging proximity contact data. In addition, experiments with the EKF-SD-SIR model also revealed that the filtering approach is constrained by the limited quality and reliability of sensing-data-inferred proximate contacts. The following two parts of this dissertation investigate spatial-temporal factors that could impact the quality and reliability of sensor-collected proximity contact data. In the second step, the impact of spatial resolution is illustrated by differences between two typical sensing modalities---Bluetooth beaconing versus GPS co-location. Experiments show that, in general, proximity contact data collected with Bluetooth beaconing lead to transmission models with results different from those driven by proximity contact data collected with GPS co-location. Awareness of the differences between sensing modalities can aid researchers in incorporating proximity contact data into transmission models. Finally, in the third step, the impact of temporal resolution is elucidated by investigating the differences between results of transmission models led by proximity contact data collected with varying observation frequencies. These differences led by varying observation frequencies are evaluated under circumstances with alternative assumptions regarding sampling method, disease/pathogen type, and the underlying population. Experiments show that the impact of sensing regimes is influenced by the type of diseases/pathogens and underlying population, while sampling once in a while can be a decent choice across all situations. This dissertation demonstrated the value of a filtering approach to enhance transmission models with sensor-collected proximity contact data, as well as explored spatial-temporal factors that will impact the accuracy and reliability of sensor-collected proximity contact data. Furthermore, this dissertation suggested guidance for future sensor-based proximity contact data collection and highlighted needs and opportunities for further research on sensing-inferred proximity contact data for transmission models

Networks, Communication, and Computing Vol. 2

Networks, communications, and computing have become ubiquitous and inseparable parts of everyday life. This book is based on a Special Issue of the Algorithms journal, and it is devoted to the exploration of the many-faceted relationship of networks, communications, and computing. The included papers explore the current state-of-the-art research in these areas, with a particular interest in the interactions among the fields

Recent Advances in Social Data and Artificial Intelligence 2019

The importance and usefulness of subjects and topics involving social data and artificial intelligence are becoming widely recognized. This book contains invited review, expository, and original research articles dealing with, and presenting state-of-the-art accounts pf, the recent advances in the subjects of social data and artificial intelligence, and potentially their links to Cyberspace

Tracking the Temporal-Evolution of Supernova Bubbles in Numerical Simulations

The study of low-dimensional, noisy manifolds embedded in a higher dimensional space has been extremely useful in many applications, from the chemical analysis of multi-phase flows to simulations of galactic mergers. Building a probabilistic model of the manifolds has helped in describing their essential properties and how they vary in space. However, when the manifold is evolving through time, a joint spatio-temporal modelling is needed, in order to fully comprehend its nature. We propose a first-order Markovian process that propagates the spatial probabilistic model of a manifold at fixed time, to its adjacent temporal stages. The proposed methodology is demonstrated using a particle simulation of an interacting dwarf galaxy to describe the evolution of a cavity generated by a Supernov

Urban Informatics

This open access book is the first to systematically introduce the principles of urban informatics and its application to every aspect of the city that involves its functioning, control, management, and future planning. It introduces new models and tools being developed to understand and implement these technologies that enable cities to function more efficiently – to become ‘smart’ and ‘sustainable’. The smart city has quickly emerged as computers have become ever smaller to the point where they can be embedded into the very fabric of the city, as well as being central to new ways in which the population can communicate and act. When cities are wired in this way, they have the potential to become sentient and responsive, generating massive streams of ‘big’ data in real time as well as providing immense opportunities for extracting new forms of urban data through crowdsourcing. This book offers a comprehensive review of the methods that form the core of urban informatics from various kinds of urban remote sensing to new approaches to machine learning and statistical modelling. It provides a detailed technical introduction to the wide array of tools information scientists need to develop the key urban analytics that are fundamental to learning about the smart city, and it outlines ways in which these tools can be used to inform design and policy so that cities can become more efficient with a greater concern for environment and equity

Urban Informatics

This open access book is the first to systematically introduce the principles of urban informatics and its application to every aspect of the city that involves its functioning, control, management, and future planning. It introduces new models and tools being developed to understand and implement these technologies that enable cities to function more efficiently – to become ‘smart’ and ‘sustainable’. The smart city has quickly emerged as computers have become ever smaller to the point where they can be embedded into the very fabric of the city, as well as being central to new ways in which the population can communicate and act. When cities are wired in this way, they have the potential to become sentient and responsive, generating massive streams of ‘big’ data in real time as well as providing immense opportunities for extracting new forms of urban data through crowdsourcing. This book offers a comprehensive review of the methods that form the core of urban informatics from various kinds of urban remote sensing to new approaches to machine learning and statistical modelling. It provides a detailed technical introduction to the wide array of tools information scientists need to develop the key urban analytics that are fundamental to learning about the smart city, and it outlines ways in which these tools can be used to inform design and policy so that cities can become more efficient with a greater concern for environment and equity

WSN based sensing model for smart crowd movement with identification: a conceptual model

With the advancement of IT and increase in world population rate, Crowd Management (CM) has become a subject undergoing intense study among researchers. Technology provides fast and easily available means of transport and, up-to-date information access to the people that causes crowd at public places. This imposes a big challenge for crowd safety and security at public places such as airports, railway stations and check points. For example, the crowd of pilgrims during Hajj and Ummrah while crossing the borders of Makkah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. To minimize the risk of such crowd safety and security identification and verification of people is necessary which causes unwanted increment in processing time. It is observed that managing crowd during specific time period (Hajj and Ummrah) with identification and verification is a challenge. At present, many advanced technologies such as Internet of Things (IoT) are being used to solve the crowed management problem with minimal processing time. In this paper, we have presented a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) based conceptual model for smart crowd movement with minimal processing time for people identification. This handles the crowd by forming groups and provides proactive support to handle them in organized manner. As a result, crowd can be managed to move safely from one place to another with group identification. The group identification minimizes the processing time and move the crowd in smart way

The Palgrave Handbook of Digital Russia Studies

This open access handbook presents a multidisciplinary and multifaceted perspective on how the ‘digital’ is simultaneously changing Russia and the research methods scholars use to study Russia. It provides a critical update on how Russian society, politics, economy, and culture are reconfigured in the context of ubiquitous connectivity and accounts for the political and societal responses to digitalization. In addition, it answers practical and methodological questions in handling Russian data and a wide array of digital methods. The volume makes a timely intervention in our understanding of the changing field of Russian Studies and is an essential guide for scholars, advanced undergraduate and graduate students studying Russia today

The Palgrave Handbook of Digital Russia Studies

This open access handbook presents a multidisciplinary and multifaceted perspective on how the ‘digital’ is simultaneously changing Russia and the research methods scholars use to study Russia. It provides a critical update on how Russian society, politics, economy, and culture are reconfigured in the context of ubiquitous connectivity and accounts for the political and societal responses to digitalization. In addition, it answers practical and methodological questions in handling Russian data and a wide array of digital methods. The volume makes a timely intervention in our understanding of the changing field of Russian Studies and is an essential guide for scholars, advanced undergraduate and graduate students studying Russia today