Certainty equivalence and model uncertainty

Simon’s and Theil’s certainty equivalence property justifies a convenient algorithm for solving dynamic programming problems with quadratic objectives and linear transition laws: first, optimize under perfect foresight, then substitute optimal forecasts for unknown future values. A similar decomposition into separate optimization and forecasting steps prevails when a decision maker wants a decision rule that is robust to model misspecification. Concerns about model misspecification leave the first step of the algorithm intact and affect only the second step of forecasting the future. The decision maker attains robustness by making forecasts with a distorted model that twists probabilities relative to his approximating model. The appropriate twisting emerges from a two-player zero-sum dynamic game.

Robust Mechanism Design: An Introduction

This essay is the introduction for a collection of papers by the two of us on "Robust Mechanism Design" to be published by World Scientific Publishing. The appendix of this essay lists the chapters of the book. The objective of this introductory essay is to provide the reader with an overview of the research agenda pursued in the collected papers. The introduction selectively presents the main results of the papers, and attempts to illustrate many of them in terms of a common and canonical example, the single unit auction with interdependent values. In addition, we include an extended discussion about the role of alternative assumptions about type spaces in our work and the literature, in order to explain the common logic of the informational robustness approach that unifies the work in this volume.Mechanism design, Robust mechanism design, Common knowledge, Universal type space, Interim equilibrium, Ex post equilibrium, Dominant strategies, Rationalizability, Partial implementation, Full implementation, Robust implementation

Minimizing the impact of EV charging on the electricity distribution network

The main objective of this paper is to design electric vehicle (EV) charging policies which minimize the impact of charging on the electricity distribution network (DN). More precisely, the considered cost function results from a linear combination of two parts: a cost with memory and a memoryless cost. In this paper, the first component is identified to be the transformer ageing while the second one corresponds to distribution Joule losses. First, we formulate the problem as a non-trivial discrete-time optimal control problem with finite time horizon. It is non-trivial because of the presence of saturation constraints and a non-quadratic cost. It turns out that the system state, which is the transformer hot-spot (HS) temperature here, can be expressed as a function of the sequence of control variables; the cost function is then seen to be convex in the control for typical values for the model parameters. The problem of interest thus becomes a standard optimization problem. While the corresponding problem can be solved by using available numerical routines, three distributed charging policies are provided. The motivation is threefold: to decrease the computational complexity; to model the important scenario where the charging profile is chosen by the EV itself; to circumvent the allocation problem which arises with the proposed formulation. Remarkably, the performance loss induced by decentralization is verified to be small through simulations. Numerical results show the importance of the choice of the charging policies. For instance, the gain in terms of transformer lifetime can be very significant when implementing advanced charging policies instead of plug-and-charge policies. The impact of the accuracy of the non-EV demand forecasting is equally assessed.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, keywords: electric vehicle charging, electricity distribution network, optimal control, distributed policies, game theor

Density of the f-statistic in the linear model with arbitrarily normal distributed errors

Estimation;mathematische statistiek