Forecasting Construction Tender Price Index in Ghana using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables Model

Prices of construction resources keep on fluctuating due to unstable economic situations that have been experienced over the years. Clients knowledge of their financial commitments toward their intended project remains the basis for their final decision. The use of construction tender price index provides a realistic estimate at the early stage of the project. Tender price index (TPI) is influenced by various economic factors, hence there are several statistical techniques that have been employed in forecasting. Some of these include regression, time series, vector error correction among others. However, in recent times the integrated modelling approach is gaining popularity due to its ability to give powerful predictive accuracy. Thus, in line with this assumption, the aim of this study is to apply autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) in modelling TPI. The results showed that ARIMAX model has a better predictive ability than the use of the single approach. The study further confirms the earlier position of previous research of the need to use the integrated model technique in forecasting TPI. This model will assist practitioners to forecast the future values of tender price index. Although the study focuses on the Ghanaian economy, the findings can be broadly applicable to other developing countries which share similar economic characteristics

Supporting policy packages: the future of road pricing in the UK

Transport is already a large component of our economy and society. Historically, transport programmes were substantially about developing basic infrastructure networks. Now the emphasis is on the active management of systems and operating them to maximum advantage in the face of growing travel demand and capacity limitations. Combined developments in technology and the world economy have accelerated change to almost unpredictable levels. The change affects many areas and transport is not an exception. With new vehicle technologies, radical policies and the persistent growth in private and commercial vehicles, a new changing transport landscape is emerging. One of these changes comes in the form of sustainable transport management - managing the demand of existing infrastructure networks. The role of demand management has been illustrated in many reports and papers and it seems that governments are becoming more aware of it. This paper focuses on one particular demand management policy that is often regarded as radical and generally unacceptable. Road pricing often gets delayed or abandoned due to controversy, disagreements, unanticipated problems and a whole host of other delaying factors. There are complex interactions in transport management - there is a need for cooperation between networks, stakeholders and different authorities. Single measures that focus on 'sustainable transport' usually address a limited set of objectives and are not usually combined with other policy measures. When combined, it is sometimes unclear whether the multiple interactions between policy tools and implementation networks have been considered. An emerging case of implementation of a policy package in the UK is the support of road pricing initiatives combined with public transport improvements by the Transport Innovation Fund. The paper will present a review of the UK road pricing situation along with key implementation factors that show firstly the importance of combining policy tools and secondly the necessity in creating and maintaining strong implementation networks

Self-Evaluation Applied Mathematics 2003-2008 University of Twente

This report contains the self-study for the research assessment of the Department of Applied Mathematics (AM) of the Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science (EEMCS) at the University of Twente (UT). The report provides the information for the Research Assessment Committee for Applied Mathematics, dealing with mathematical sciences at the three universities of technology in the Netherlands. It describes the state of affairs pertaining to the period 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2008

Standard setting and competition in securities settlement

This paper examines the impact of messaging and technical standards on competition in the supply of se-curities transaction management services. Two simple switching cost models are used to clarify the im-pact of standards on barriers to entry and on the incentives to adopt harmonised and simplified securities processing standards. Policy implications are discussed briefly.securities settlement; standards; inter-operability; switching costs

Wireless Broadband Access: Policy Implications of Heterogeneous Networks

A wireless heterogeneous network can help increase the access transmission speed and contribute thereby to the broadband deployment policies of administrations and telecommunications operators. Given the technical particularities of wireless heterogeneous networks, the deployment of wireless heterogeneous networks raises a number of challenges that need to be addressed by regulatory authorities. This article analyses the following regulatory implications: standardisation and technology neutrality, spectrum management, market analysis, open access and infrastructure sharing, interconnection pricing and charging, broadband deployment policies, and privacy and security issues. --4G,heterogeneous networks,cooperative networks,spectrum management,regulation,wireless networks

Traffic Congestion Pricing Methods and Technologies

This paper reviews the methods and technologies for congestion pricing of roads. Congestion tolls can be implemented at scales ranging from individual lanes on single links to national road networks. Tolls can be differentiated by time of day, road type and vehicle characteristics, and even set in real time according to current traffic conditions. Conventional toll booths have largely given way to electronic toll collection technologies. The main technology categories are roadside-only systems employing digital photography, tag and beacon systems that use short-range microwave technology, and in vehicle-only systems based on either satellite or cellular network communications. The best technology choice depends on the application. The rate at which congestion pricing is implemented, and its ultimate scope, will depend on what technology is used and on what other functions and services it can perform. Since congestion pricing calls for the greatest overall degree of toll differentiation, congestion pricing is likely to drive the technology choice.Road pricing; Congestion pricing; Electronic Toll Collection technology

The urban economy as a scale-free network

We present empirical evidence that land values are scale-free and introduce a network model that reproduces the observations. The network approach to urban modelling is based on the assumption that the market dynamics that generates land values can be represented as a growing scale-free network. Our results suggest that the network properties of trade between specialized activities causes land values, and likely also other observables such as population, to be power law distributed. In addition to being an attractive avenue for further analytical inquiry, the network representation is also applicable to empirical data and is thereby attractive for predictive modelling.Comment: Submitted to Phys. Rev. E. 7 pages, 3 figures. (Minor typos and details fixed

A review of Multi-Agent Simulation Models in Agriculture

Multi-Agent Simulation (MAS) models are intended to capture emergent properties of complex systems that are not amenable to equilibrium analysis. They are beginning to see some use for analysing agricultural systems. The paper reports on work in progress to create a MAS for specific sectors in New Zealand agriculture. One part of the paper focuses on options for modelling land and other resources such as water, labour and capital in this model, as well as markets for exchanging resources and commodities. A second part considers options for modelling agent heterogeneity, especially risk preferences of farmers, and the impacts on decision-making. The final section outlines the MAS that the authors will be constructing over the next few years and the types of research questions that the model will help investigate.multi-agent simulation models, modelling, agent-based model, cellular automata, decision-making, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries,