Uncertainty and technical efficiency in Finnish agriculture: a state-contingent approach

In this article, we present one of the first real-world empirical applications of state-contingent production theory. Our state-contingent behavioral model allows us to analyze production under both inefficiency and uncertainty without regard to the nature of producer risk preferences. Using farm data for Finland, we estimate a flexible production model that permits substitutability between state-contingent outputs. We test empirically, and reject, an assumption that has been implicit in almost all efficiency studies conducted in the last three decades, namely that the production technology is output-cubical, i.e., that outputs are not substitutable between states of nature.state-contingent; production; uncertainty

Recurrent Poisson Factorization for Temporal Recommendation

Poisson factorization is a probabilistic model of users and items for recommendation systems, where the so-called implicit consumer data is modeled by a factorized Poisson distribution. There are many variants of Poisson factorization methods who show state-of-the-art performance on real-world recommendation tasks. However, most of them do not explicitly take into account the temporal behavior and the recurrent activities of users which is essential to recommend the right item to the right user at the right time. In this paper, we introduce Recurrent Poisson Factorization (RPF) framework that generalizes the classical PF methods by utilizing a Poisson process for modeling the implicit feedback. RPF treats time as a natural constituent of the model and brings to the table a rich family of time-sensitive factorization models. To elaborate, we instantiate several variants of RPF who are capable of handling dynamic user preferences and item specification (DRPF), modeling the social-aspect of product adoption (SRPF), and capturing the consumption heterogeneity among users and items (HRPF). We also develop a variational algorithm for approximate posterior inference that scales up to massive data sets. Furthermore, we demonstrate RPF's superior performance over many state-of-the-art methods on synthetic dataset, and large scale real-world datasets on music streaming logs, and user-item interactions in M-Commerce platforms.Comment: Submitted to KDD 2017 | Halifax, Nova Scotia - Canada - sigkdd, Codes are available at https://github.com/AHosseini/RP

Click-aware purchase prediction with push at the top

Eliciting user preferences from purchase records for performing purchase prediction is challenging because negative feedback is not explicitly observed, and because treating all non-purchased items equally as negative feedback is unrealistic. Therefore, in this study, we present a framework that leverages the past click records of users to compensate for the missing user-item interactions of purchase records, i.e., non-purchased items. We begin by formulating various model assumptions, each one assuming a different order of user preferences among purchased, clicked-but-not-purchased, and non-clicked items, to study the usefulness of leveraging click records. We implement the model assumptions using the Bayesian personalized ranking model, which maximizes the area under the curve for bipartite ranking. However, we argue that using click records for bipartite ranking needs a meticulously designed model because of the relative unreliableness of click records compared with that of purchase records. Therefore, we ultimately propose a novel learning-to-rank method, called P3Stop, for performing purchase prediction. The proposed model is customized to be robust to relatively unreliable click records by particularly focusing on the accuracy of top-ranked items. Experimental results on two real-world e-commerce datasets demonstrate that P3STop considerably outperforms the state-of-the-art implicit-feedback-based recommendation methods, especially for top-ranked items.Comment: For the final published journal version, see https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2020.02.06

PLM-IPE: A Pixel-Landmark Mutual Enhanced Framework for Implicit Preference Estimation

In this paper, we are interested in understanding how customers perceive fashion recommendations, in particular when observing a proposed combination of garments to compose an outfit. Automatically understanding how a suggested item is perceived, without any kind of active engagement, is in fact an essential block to achieve interactive applications. We propose a pixel-landmark mutual enhanced framework for implicit preference estimation, named PLM-IPE, which is capable of inferring the user's implicit preferences exploiting visual cues, without any active or conscious engagement. PLM-IPE consists of three key modules: pixel-based estimator, landmark-based estimator and mutual learning based optimization. The former two modules work on capturing the implicit reaction of the user from the pixel level and landmark level, respectively. The last module serves to transfer knowledge between the two parallel estimators. Towards evaluation, we collected a real-world dataset, named SentiGarment, which contains 3,345 facial reaction videos paired with suggested outfits and human labeled reaction scores. Extensive experiments show the superiority of our model over state-of-the-art approaches

Listener Modeling and Context-aware Music Recommendation Based on Country Archetypes

Music preferences are strongly shaped by the cultural and socio-economic background of the listener, which is reflected, to a considerable extent, in country-specific music listening profiles. Previous work has already identified several country-specific differences in the popularity distribution of music artists listened to. In particular, what constitutes the "music mainstream" strongly varies between countries. To complement and extend these results, the article at hand delivers the following major contributions: First, using state-of-the-art unsupervised learning techniques, we identify and thoroughly investigate (1) country profiles of music preferences on the fine-grained level of music tracks (in contrast to earlier work that relied on music preferences on the artist level) and (2) country archetypes that subsume countries sharing similar patterns of listening preferences. Second, we formulate four user models that leverage the user's country information on music preferences. Among others, we propose a user modeling approach to describe a music listener as a vector of similarities over the identified country clusters or archetypes. Third, we propose a context-aware music recommendation system that leverages implicit user feedback, where context is defined via the four user models. More precisely, it is a multi-layer generative model based on a variational autoencoder, in which contextual features can influence recommendations through a gating mechanism. Fourth, we thoroughly evaluate the proposed recommendation system and user models on a real-world corpus of more than one billion listening records of users around the world (out of which we use 369 million in our experiments) and show its merits vis-a-vis state-of-the-art algorithms that do not exploit this type of context information.Comment: 30 pages, 3 tables, 12 figure

Inferring latent network from cascade data for dynamic social recommendation

© 2016 IEEE. Social recommendation explores social information to improve the quality of a recommender system. It can be further divided into explicit and implicit social network recommendation. The former assumes the existence of explicit social connections between users in addition to the rating data. The latter one assumes the availability of only the ratings but not the social connections between users since the explicit social information data may not necessarily be available and usually are binary decision values (e.g., whether two people are friends), while the strength of their relationships is missing. Most of the works in this field use only rating data to infer the latent social networks. They ignore the dynamic nature of users that the preferences of users drift over time distinctly. To this end, we propose a new Implicit Dynamic Social Recommendation (IDSR) model, which infers latent social network from cascade data. It can sufficiently mine the information contained in time by mining the cascade data and identify the dynamic changes in the users in time by using the latest updated social network to make recommendations. Experiments and comparisons on three real-world datasets show that the proposed model outperforms the state-of-The-Art solutions in both explicit and implicit scenarios

SetRank: A Setwise Bayesian Approach for Collaborative Ranking from Implicit Feedback

The recent development of online recommender systems has a focus on collaborative ranking from implicit feedback, such as user clicks and purchases. Different from explicit ratings, which reflect graded user preferences, the implicit feedback only generates positive and unobserved labels. While considerable efforts have been made in this direction, the well-known pairwise and listwise approaches have still been limited by various challenges. Specifically, for the pairwise approaches, the assumption of independent pairwise preference is not always held in practice. Also, the listwise approaches cannot efficiently accommodate "ties" due to the precondition of the entire list permutation. To this end, in this paper, we propose a novel setwise Bayesian approach for collaborative ranking, namely SetRank, to inherently accommodate the characteristics of implicit feedback in recommender system. Specifically, SetRank aims at maximizing the posterior probability of novel setwise preference comparisons and can be implemented with matrix factorization and neural networks. Meanwhile, we also present the theoretical analysis of SetRank to show that the bound of excess risk can be proportional to $\sqrt{M/N}$, where $M$ and $N$ are the numbers of items and users, respectively. Finally, extensive experiments on four real-world datasets clearly validate the superiority of SetRank compared with various state-of-the-art baselines.Comment: This paper has been accepted in AAAI'2