Updating, Upgrading, Refining, Calibration and Implementation of Trade-Off Analysis Methodology Developed for INDOT

As part of the ongoing evolution towards integrated highway asset management, the Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT), through SPR studies in 2004 and 2010, sponsored research that developed an overall framework for asset management. This was intended to foster decision support for alternative investments across the program areas on the basis of a broad range of performance measures and against the background of the various alternative actions or spending amounts that could be applied to the several different asset types in the different program areas. The 2010 study also developed theoretical constructs for scaling and amalgamating the different performance measures, and for analyzing the different kinds of trade-offs. The research products from the present study include this technical report which shows how theoretical underpinnings of the methodology developed for INDOT in 2010 have been updated, upgraded, and refined. The report also includes a case study that shows how the trade-off analysis framework has been calibrated using available data. Supplemental to the report is Trade-IN Version 1.0, a set of flexible and easy-to-use spreadsheets that implement the tradeoff framework. With this framework and using data at the current time or in the future, INDOT’s asset managers are placed in a better position to quantify and comprehend the relationships between budget levels and system-wide performance, the relationships between different pairs of conflicting or non-conflicting performance measures under a given budget limit, and the consequences, in terms of system-wide performance, of funding shifts across the management systems or program areas

Open source environment to define constraints in route planning for GIS-T

Route planning for transportation systems is strongly related to shortest path algorithms, an optimization problem extensively studied in the literature. To find the shortest path in a network one usually assigns weights to each branch to represent the difficulty of taking such branch. The weights construct a linear preference function ordering the variety of alternatives from the most to the least attractive.Postprint (published version

Pilot3 D2.1 - Trade-off report on multi criteria decision making techniques

This deliverable describes the decision making approach that will be followed in Pilot3. It presents a domain-driven analysis of the characteristics of Pilot3 objective function and optimisation framework. This has been done considering inputs from deliverable D1.1 - Technical Resources and Problem definition, from interaction with the Topic Manager, but most importantly from a dedicated Advisory Board workshop and follow-up consultation. The Advisory Board is formed by relevant stakeholders including airlines, flight operation experts, pilots, and other relevant ATM experts. A review of the different multi-criteria decision making techniques available in the literature is presented. Considering the domain-driven characteristics of Pilot3 and inputs on how the tool could be used by airlines and crew. Then, the most suitable methods for multi-criteria optimisation are selected for each of the phases of the optimisation framework

Integration of preference elicitation and the development of alternative forest plans : focusing on the requirements of the decision maker

Modern forest management frequently revolves around the concepts of developing strategic, tactical and operational level plans. These plans are developed through the use of simulation and optimization software, based on scientific models and mathematical programming. The optimal management schedule depends upon the decision maker(s) (DM) preferences. When developing forest plans for the DM(s) the method of acquiring preference information should be as value free as possible. To facilitate a DM-orientated approach, a selection of alternatives based on the acquired preferences should be made available to the DM so that a true choice can be made. The development of the forest plans should represent the desires and wishes of the forest owner at the time the plan is created. In order to balance the costs with the quality of the service provided, tools are required which develop client specific forest plans. The first objective of this thesis is to analyse different preference elicitation methods and study the impacts of information content on the selection of a plan. In papers I and II, plans were selected using an a posteriori method of preference elicitation. For paper III, preference elicitation was done in an interactive fashion, to develop an acceptable forest plan using both a priori and a posteriori preference elicitation methods. The second objective is to develop techniques for incorporating preference information into optimization methods. In paper IV, a series of goal programming models were used to incorporate the preference information from several DMs to generate a number of potentially desirable forest plans. Paper V develops a goal programming formulation which separates the treatment of different goals into two partitions; one strives to maintain the difference from the target for the goals in balance, the other strives to obtain the most efficient aggregate solution.Nykyaikainen metsäsuunnittelu keskittyy usein sellaisille käsitteellisille tasoille kuin strateginen, taktinen ja operatiivinen suunnittelu. Suunnitelmat on toteutettu käyttämällä simulointi- ja optimointiohjelmistoja, jotka perustuvat tieteellisiin malleihin ja matemaattiseen ohjelmointiin. Kuitenkin päätöksentekijän /jien (PT) preferenssit määrittelevät optimaalisen aikataulun metsänhoidolle. Metsäsuunnitelmia tuotettaessa menetelmän tulisi olla mahdollisimman vapaa suunnittelijan omista arvoista ja mielipiteistä. Jotta lähestymistapa olisi mahdollisimman PT-ystävällinen, pitäisi päätöksentekijälle esittää useita metsänsuunnittelun vaihtoehtoja, joiden perusteella PT voi tehdä aidosti henkilökohtaisen valintansa. Tuotettujen metsäsuunnitelmien tulisi vastata metsänomistajan sen hetkisiä toiveita ja mieltymyksiä. Jotta suunnitelmien kustannusten ja laadun välille saadaan tasapaino, tarvitsemme työkaluja joilla muokata metsäsuunnittelua paremmin asiakaslähtöiseksi. Tämän tutkimuksen ensimmäinen tavoite oli analysoida eri preferenssien hankintamenetelmiä, sekä selvittää saadun tiedon määrän vaikutus suunnitelman valintaan. Artikkeleissa I ja II suunnitelma valittiin a posteriori menetelmän avulla. Artikkelissa III preferenssien hankinta toteutettiin interaktiivisesti, siten, että hyväksyttävä metsäsuunnitelma saatiin aikaiseksi hyödyntämällä sekä a priori, että a posteriori preferenssien valintamenetelmiä. Tutkimuksen toinen tavoite oli kehittää tekniikoita, joilla sisällytetään preferenssitietoa osaksi optimointimenetelmiä. Artikkelissa IV on käytetty sarjaa tavoiteohjelmointimalleja, joiden tavoitteena oli sisällyttää preferenssitietoja useilta eri päätöksentekijöiltä, joiden pohjalta sitten tuotettiin useita PT:itä potentiaalisesti kiinnostavia metsäsuunnitelmia. Artikkeli V kehitti uuden tavan formuloida tavoiteohjelmoinnin tehtävä, , joka erottaa tavoitteiden käsittelyn kahteen osaan; toinen pyrkii löytämään mahdollisimman tasapainoisen ratkaisun ja toinen pyrkii löytämään kaikista tehokkaimman ratkaisuyhdistelmän

Hypothesis testing for management: Evolving and answering closed questions using multiobjective visualization

In order to use models to understand deeply uncertain future conditions, managers must be able to pose and test hypotheses about their management problems. In Iterative Closed Question Methodology (ICQM), a series of closed questions are used to structure thinking about hypotheses while looking beyond a problem's existing modeling representation. Our research is exploring how ICQM can contribute to a framework called Many Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM), which uses multiobjective optimization and ensembles of uncertain future states of the world to create and evaluate robust solutions for environmental management. A visualization software tool; AeroVis, has greatly aided implementation of MORDM, allowing a user to plot tradeoffs between conflicting objectives, "brush" their preferences on plotted and unplotted variables, and view visualizations of solution robustness. This visualization approach provides a rich set of conclusions which is not always well understood (i.e. the user can interpret results that the modeler did not intend). In this presentation, we explore how visualization tools iteratively generate and evaluate management hypotheses and conclusions. We discuss the types of conclusions that can be made from AeroVis MORDM visualizations and walk through experimental examples of how individuals reason with the decision support tool. This illustrates that working within an MORDM framework helps the user consider alternate model assumptions about future inputs, parameters and model structure, supporting the idea that model assumptions can provide useful scenarios for environmental management

Ranking of Distribution System's Redesign Scenarios Using Stochastic MCDM/A Procedure

AbstractThe paper presents the original procedure of solving a multiple criteria stochastic ranking problem consisting in the evaluation of different variants of the distribution system. The problem originates from the analysis and construction of the redesign scenarios of the existing distribution system. The authors develop a computational procedure being a combination of a traditional – deterministic multiple criteria ranking method (e.g. Electre III/IV) and a classification algorithm (e.g. Bayes classifier). The proposed method is composed of six steps, including: stochastic data collection, random selection of deterministic numbers using simulation technique, solving a multiple criteria ranking problem with an application of a deterministic multiple criteria decision aiding/making (MCDM/A) method, the classification of deterministic relations between redesign scenarios (variants) to predefined classes using classification algorithm, the construction of a final ranking of redesign scenarios with an application of a spreadsheet, the recommendation of the compromise solution based on stochastic final ranking of redesign scenarios. The proposed approach is verified on the real-world analysis of the distribution system of goods which operates at the Polish electro-technical market. The results of computational experiments, including: ranking generation, classification and sensitivity analysis are demonstrated. The analysts’ final recommendation of the compromise solution selection is presented. It is based on a comprehensive analysis of the current state of the system, the perspectives of its development, decision maker's preferences, results of the computational experiments and sensitivity analysis

Using ELECTRE TRI outranking method to sort MOMILP nondominated solutions

Several interactive methods exist to identify nondominated solutions in a Multiple Objective Mixed Integer Linear Program. But what if the Decision Maker is also interested in sorting those solutions (assigning them to pre-established ordinal categories)? We propose an interactive "branch-and-bound like" technique to progressively build the nondominated set, combined with ELECTRE TRI method (Pessimistic procedure) to sort identified nondominated solutions. A disaggregation approach is considered in order to avoid direct definition of all ELECTRE TRI preference parameters. Weight-importance coefficients are inferred and category reference profiles are determined based on assignment examples provided by the Decision Maker. A computation tool was developed with a twofold purpose: support the Decision Maker involved in a decision process and provide a test bed for research purposes.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VCT-48GF3RT-B/1/55841cf788557c60dac156a4e7b1890