MODELING, LEARNING AND REASONING ABOUT PREFERENCE TREES OVER COMBINATORIAL DOMAINS

In my Ph.D. dissertation, I have studied problems arising in various aspects of preferences: preference modeling, preference learning, and preference reasoning, when preferences concern outcomes ranging over combinatorial domains. Preferences is a major research component in artificial intelligence (AI) and decision theory, and is closely related to the social choice theory considered by economists and political scientists. In my dissertation, I have exploited emerging connections between preferences in AI and social choice theory. Most of my research is on qualitative preference representations that extend and combine existing formalisms such as conditional preference nets, lexicographic preference trees, answer-set optimization programs, possibilistic logic, and conditional preference networks; on learning problems that aim at discovering qualitative preference models and predictive preference information from practical data; and on preference reasoning problems centered around qualitative preference optimization and aggregation methods. Applications of my research include recommender systems, decision support tools, multi-agent systems, and Internet trading and marketing platforms

On learning and visualizing lexicographic preference trees

Preferences are very important in research fields such as decision making, recommendersystemsandmarketing. The focus of this thesis is on preferences over combinatorial domains, which are domains of objects configured with categorical attributes. For example, the domain of cars includes car objects that are constructed withvaluesforattributes, such as ‘make’, ‘year’, ‘model’, ‘color’, ‘body type’ and ‘transmission’.Different values can instantiate an attribute. For instance, values for attribute ‘make’canbeHonda, Toyota, Tesla or BMW, and attribute ‘transmission’ can haveautomaticormanual. To this end,thisthesis studiesproblemsonpreference visualization and learning for lexicographic preference trees, graphical preference models that often are compact over complex domains of objects built of categorical attributes. Visualizing preferences is essential to provide users with insights into the process of decision making, while learning preferences from data is practically important, as it is ineffective to elicit preference models directly from users. The results obtained from this thesis are two parts: 1) for preference visualization, aweb- basedsystem is created that visualizes various types of lexicographic preference tree models learned by a greedy learning algorithm; 2) for preference learning, a genetic algorithm is designed and implemented, called GA, that learns a restricted type of lexicographic preference tree, called unconditional importance and unconditional preference tree, or UIUP trees for short. Experiments show that GA achieves higher accuracy compared to the greedy algorithm at the cost of more computational time. Moreover, a Dynamic Programming Algorithm (DPA) was devised and implemented that computes an optimal UIUP tree model in the sense that it satisfies as many examples as possible in the dataset. This novel exact algorithm (DPA), was used to evaluate the quality of models computed by GA, and it was found to reduce the factorial time complexity of the brute force algorithm to exponential. The major contribution to the field of machine learning and data mining in this thesis would be the novel learning algorithm (DPA) which is an exact algorithm. DPA learns and finds the best UIUP tree model in the huge search space which classifies accurately the most number of examples in the training dataset; such model is referred to as the optimal model in this thesis. Finally, using datasets produced from randomly generated UIUP trees, this thesis presents experimental results on the performances (e.g., accuracy and computational time) of GA compared to the existent greedy algorithm and DPA

PREFERENCES: OPTIMIZATION, IMPORTANCE LEARNING AND STRATEGIC BEHAVIORS

Preferences are fundamental to decision making and play an important role in artificial intelligence. Our research focuses on three group of problems based on the preference formalism Answer Set Optimization (ASO): preference aggregation problems such as computing optimal (near optimal) solutions, strategic behaviors in preference representation, and learning ranks (weights) for preferences. In the first group of problems, of interest are optimal outcomes, that is, outcomes that are optimal with respect to the preorder defined by the preference rules. In this work, we consider computational problems concerning optimal outcomes. We propose, implement and study methods to compute an optimal outcome; to compute another optimal outcome once the first one is found; to compute an optimal outcome that is similar to (or, dissimilar from) a given candidate outcome; and to compute a set of optimal answer sets each significantly different from the others. For the decision version of several of these problems we establish their computational complexity. For the second topic, the strategic behaviors such as manipulation and bribery have received much attention from the social choice community. We study these concepts for preference formalisms that identify a set of optimal outcomes rather than a single winning outcome, the case common to social choice. Such preference formalisms are of interest in the context of combinatorial domains, where preference representations are only approximations to true preferences, and seeking a single optimal outcome runs a risk of missing the one which is optimal with respect to the actual preferences. In this work, we assume that preferences may be ranked (differ in importance), and we use the Pareto principle adjusted to the case of ranked preferences as the preference aggregation rule. For two important classes of preferences, representing the extreme ends of the spectrum, we provide characterizations of situations when manipulation and bribery is possible, and establish the complexity of the problem to decide that. Finally, we study the problem of learning the importance of individual preferences in preference profiles aggregated by the ranked Pareto rule or positional scoring rules. We provide a polynomial-time algorithm that finds a ranking of preferences such that the ranked profile correctly decided all the examples, whenever such a ranking exists. We also show that the problem to learn a ranking maximizing the number of correctly decided examples is NP-hard. We obtain similar results for the case of weighted profiles

CP-nets: From Theory to Practice

Conditional preference networks (CP-nets) exploit the power of ceteris paribus rules to represent preferences over combinatorial decision domains compactly. CP-nets have much appeal. However, their study has not yet advanced sufficiently for their widespread use in real-world applications. Known algorithms for deciding dominance---whether one outcome is better than another with respect to a CP-net---require exponential time. Data for CP-nets are difficult to obtain: human subjects data over combinatorial domains are not readily available, and earlier work on random generation is also problematic. Also, much of the research on CP-nets makes strong, often unrealistic assumptions, such as that decision variables must be binary or that only strict preferences are permitted. In this thesis, I address such limitations to make CP-nets more useful. I show how: to generate CP-nets uniformly randomly; to limit search depth in dominance testing given expectations about sets of CP-nets; and to use local search for learning restricted classes of CP-nets from choice data

Methodological review of multicriteria optimization techniques: aplications in water resources

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is an umbrella approach that has been applied to a wide range of natural resource management situations. This report has two purposes. First, it aims to provide an overview of advancedmulticriteriaapproaches, methods and tools. The review seeks to layout the nature of the models, their inherent strengths and limitations. Analysis of their applicability in supporting real-life decision-making processes is provided with relation to requirements imposed by organizationally decentralized and economically specific spatial and temporal frameworks. Models are categorized based on different classification schemes and are reviewed by describing their general characteristics, approaches, and fundamental properties. A necessity of careful structuring of decision problems is discussed regarding planning, staging and control aspects within broader agricultural context, and in water management in particular. A special emphasis is given to the importance of manipulating decision elements by means ofhierarchingand clustering. The review goes beyond traditionalMCDAtechniques; it describes new modelling approaches. The second purpose is to describe newMCDAparadigms aimed at addressing the inherent complexity of managing water ecosystems, particularly with respect to multiple criteria integrated with biophysical models,multistakeholders, and lack of information. Comments about, and critical analysis of, the limitations of traditional models are made to point out the need for, and propose a call to, a new way of thinking aboutMCDAas they are applied to water and natural resources management planning. These new perspectives do not undermine the value of traditional methods; rather they point to a shift in emphasis from methods for problem solving to methods for problem structuring. Literature review show successfully integrations of watershed management optimization models to efficiently screen a broad range of technical, economic, and policy management options within a watershed system framework and select the optimal combination of management strategies and associated water allocations for designing a sustainable watershed management plan at least cost. Papers show applications in watershed management model that integrates both natural and human elements of a watershed system including the management of ground and surface water sources, water treatment and distribution systems, human demands,wastewatertreatment and collection systems, water reuse facilities,nonpotablewater distribution infrastructure, aquifer storage and recharge facilities, storm water, and land use