290 research outputs found

    Multi-Attribute Utility Preference Robust Optimization: A Continuous Piecewise Linear Approximation Approach

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    In this paper, we consider a multi-attribute decision making problem where the decision maker's (DM's) objective is to maximize the expected utility of outcomes but the true utility function which captures the DM's risk preference is ambiguous. We propose a maximin multi-attribute utility preference robust optimization (UPRO) model where the optimal decision is based on the worst-case utility function in an ambiguity set of plausible utility functions constructed using partially available information such as the DM's specific preferences between some lotteries. Specifically, we consider a UPRO model with two attributes, where the DM's risk attitude is multivariate risk-averse and the ambiguity set is defined by a linear system of inequalities represented by the Lebesgue-Stieltjes (LS) integrals of the DM's utility functions. To solve the maximin problem, we propose an explicit piecewise linear approximation (EPLA) scheme to approximate the DM's true unknown utility so that the inner minimization problem reduces to a linear program, and we solve the approximate maximin problem by a derivative-free (Dfree) method. Moreover, by introducing binary variables to locate the position of the reward function in a family of simplices, we propose an implicit piecewise linear approximation (IPLA) representation of the approximate UPRO and solve it using the Dfree method. Such IPLA technique prompts us to reformulate the approximate UPRO as a single mixed-integer program (MIP) and extend the tractability of the approximate UPRO to the multi-attribute case. Furthermore, we extend the model to the expected utility maximization problem with expected utility constraints where the worst-case utility functions in the objective and constraints are considered simultaneously. Finally, we report the numerical results about performances of the proposed models.Comment: 50 pages,18 figure

    Essays on New Product Development

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    My dissertation comprises three essays that theoretically and empirically investigate three managerial relevant issues in new product development. In the first essay, our focus is to develop a methodology that allows manufacturers to account for the impact of channel acceptance in new product development. We have developed a model to incorporate the retailer's acceptance criteria, retailer's product assortment, and competing manufacturers' potential reactions directly in the design of the new product, thereby maximizing the product's success probabilities. Our model merges a game-theoretical model with micro-level data on individual consumer preferences. Therefore, this method provides a rigorous, yet practical, solution to the problems that manufacturers face regarding channel acceptance. In the second essay, we examine the impact of subjective characteristics (such as aesthetics and ergonomics) on consumer's preferences for products. Existing studies of consumer preferences such as conjoint models are limited in incorporating the influence of these subjective characteristics into product design. We have developed a model to determine whether the subjective characteristics (such as comfort) are connected with the objective product attributes (such as switch type), and whether both the objective product attributes and the subjective characteristics jointly affect consumer's evaluations towards products. We show that our model outperforms the conjoint model in understanding and designing appealing products for consumers. In the third essay, our goal is to account for variations in product performance across different usage situations and conditions and to design robust new products. Consumer durables such as appliances and power tools tend to be used in various usage situations and conditions, in which their performance can vary depending on the operating conditions. We apply a Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA) to incorporate multi-function criteria in the generation and comparison of product design alternatives. Our approach will be particularly useful for product development teams that want to obtain customers' buy-in as well as internal buy-in early on in the product development cycle. We illustrate the approaches described above in the context of a new power tool development project undertaken by a US manufacturer

    CUT: a multicriteria approach for concavifiable preferences

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    We consider the problem of helping a decision maker (DM) choose from a set of multiattributed objects when her preferences are "concavifiable," i.e. representable by a concave value function. We establish conditions under which preferences or preference intensities are concavifiable. We also derive a characterization for the family of concave value functions compatible with a set of such preference statements expressed by the DM. This can be used to validate dominance relations over discrete sets of alternatives and forms the basis of an interactive procedure. We report on the practical use of this procedure with several DMs for a flat-choice problem and its computational performance on a set of project-portfolio selection problem instances. The use of preference intensities is found to provide significant improvements to the performance of the procedure

    Agricultural Risk Aversion Revisited: A Multicriteria Decision-Making Approach

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    In modelling farm systems it is widely accepted that risk plays a central role. Furthermore, farmers' risk aversion determines their decisions in both the short and the long run. This paper presents a methodology based on multiple criteria mathematical programming to obtain relative and absolute risk aversion coefficients. We rely on multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) to elicit a separable additive multiattribute utility function and then estimate the risk aversion coefficients and apply this methodology to an irrigated area of Northern Spain. The results show a wide variety of attitudes to risk among farmers, who mainly exhibit decreasing absolute risk aversion (DARA) and constant relative risk aversion (CRRA).Risk analysis, Agriculture, Utility theory, Multiple criteria analysis, Risk and Uncertainty,

    Simplified models for multi-criteria decision analysis under uncertainty

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    Includes abstract.Includes bibliographical references.When facilitating decisions in which some performance evaluations are uncertain, a decision must be taken about how this uncertainty is to be modelled. This involves, in part, choosing an uncertainty format {a way of representing the possible outcomes that may occur. It seems reasonable to suggest {and is an aim of the thesis to show {that the choice of how uncertain quantities are represented will exert some influence over the decision-making process and the final decision taken. Many models exist for multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) under conditions of uncertainty; perhaps the most well-known are those based on multi-attribute utility theory [MAUT, e.g. 147], which uses probability distributions to represent uncertainty. The great strength of MAUT is its axiomatic foundation, but even in its simplest form its practical implementation is formidable, and although there are several practical applications of MAUT reported in the literature [e.g. 39, 270] the number is small relative to its theoretical standing. Practical applications often use simpler decision models to aid decision making under uncertainty, based on uncertainty formats that `simplify' the full probability distributions (e.g. using expected values, variances, quantiles, etc). The aim of this thesis is to identify decision models associated with these `simplified' uncertainty formats and to evaluate the potential usefulness of these models as decision aids for problems involving uncertainty. It is hoped that doing so provides some guidance to practitioners about the types of models that may be used for uncertain decision making. The performance of simplified models is evaluated using three distinct methodological approaches {computer simulation, `laboratory' choice experiments, and real-world applications of decision analysis {in the hope of providing an integrated assessment. Chapter 3 generates a number of hypothetical decision problems by simulation, and within each problem simulates the hypothetical application of MAUT and various simplified decision models. The findings allow one to assess how the simplification of MAUT models might impact results, but do not provide any general conclusions because they are based on hypothetical decision problems and cannot evaluate practical issues like ease-of-use or the ability to generate insight that are critical to good decision aid. Chapter 4 addresses some of these limitations by reporting an experimental study consisting of choice tasks presented to numerate but unfacilitated participants. Tasks involved subjects selecting one from a set of five alternatives with uncertain attribute evaluations, with the format used to represent uncertainty and the number of objectives for the choice varied as part of the experimental design. The study is limited by the focus on descriptive rather than real prescriptive decision making, but has implications for prescriptive decision making practice in that natural tendencies are identified which may need to be overcome in the course of a prescriptive analysis

    05011 Abstracts Collection -- Computing and Markets

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    From 03.01.05 to 07.01.05, the Dagstuhl Seminar 05011``Computing and Markets\u27\u27 was held in the International Conference and Research Center (IBFI), Schloss Dagstuhl. During the seminar, several participants presented their current research, and ongoing work and open problems were discussed. Abstracts of the presentations given during the seminar as well as abstracts of seminar results and ideas are put together in this paper. The first section describes the seminar topics and goals in general. Links to extended abstracts or full papers are provided, if available

    Exact Pareto Optimal Search for Multi-Task Learning and Multi-Criteria Decision-Making

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    Given multiple non-convex objective functions and objective-specific weights, Chebyshev scalarization (CS) is a well-known approach to obtain an Exact Pareto Optimal (EPO), i.e., a solution on the Pareto front (PF) that intersects the ray defined by the inverse of the weights. First-order optimizers that use the CS formulation to find EPO solutions encounter practical problems of oscillations and stagnation that affect convergence. Moreover, when initialized with a PO solution, they do not guarantee a controlled trajectory that lies completely on the PF. These shortcomings lead to modeling limitations and computational inefficiency in multi-task learning (MTL) and multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods that utilize CS for their underlying non-convex multi-objective optimization (MOO). To address these shortcomings, we design a new MOO method, EPO Search. We prove that EPO Search converges to an EPO solution and empirically illustrate its computational efficiency and robustness to initialization. When initialized on the PF, EPO Search can trace the PF and converge to the required EPO solution at a linear rate of convergence. Using EPO Search we develop new algorithms: PESA-EPO for approximating the PF in a posteriori MCDM, and GP-EPO for preference elicitation in interactive MCDM; experiments on benchmark datasets confirm their advantages over competing alternatives. EPO Search scales linearly with the number of decision variables which enables its use for training deep networks. Empirical results on real data from personalized medicine, e-commerce and hydrometeorology demonstrate the efficacy of EPO Search for deep MTL
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