12,617 research outputs found
Review and Comparison of Intelligent Optimization Modelling Techniques for Energy Forecasting and Condition-Based Maintenance in PV Plants
Within the field of soft computing, intelligent optimization modelling techniques include
various major techniques in artificial intelligence. These techniques pretend to generate new business
knowledge transforming sets of "raw data" into business value. One of the principal applications of
these techniques is related to the design of predictive analytics for the improvement of advanced
CBM (condition-based maintenance) strategies and energy production forecasting. These advanced
techniques can be used to transform control system data, operational data and maintenance event data
to failure diagnostic and prognostic knowledge and, ultimately, to derive expected energy generation.
One of the systems where these techniques can be applied with massive potential impact are the
legacy monitoring systems existing in solar PV energy generation plants. These systems produce a
great amount of data over time, while at the same time they demand an important e ort in order to
increase their performance through the use of more accurate predictive analytics to reduce production
losses having a direct impact on ROI. How to choose the most suitable techniques to apply is one of
the problems to address. This paper presents a review and a comparative analysis of six intelligent
optimization modelling techniques, which have been applied on a PV plant case study, using the
energy production forecast as the decision variable. The methodology proposed not only pretends
to elicit the most accurate solution but also validates the results, in comparison with the di erent
outputs for the di erent techniques
Residual Weighted Learning for Estimating Individualized Treatment Rules
Personalized medicine has received increasing attention among statisticians,
computer scientists, and clinical practitioners. A major component of
personalized medicine is the estimation of individualized treatment rules
(ITRs). Recently, Zhao et al. (2012) proposed outcome weighted learning (OWL)
to construct ITRs that directly optimize the clinical outcome. Although OWL
opens the door to introducing machine learning techniques to optimal treatment
regimes, it still has some problems in performance. In this article, we propose
a general framework, called Residual Weighted Learning (RWL), to improve finite
sample performance. Unlike OWL which weights misclassification errors by
clinical outcomes, RWL weights these errors by residuals of the outcome from a
regression fit on clinical covariates excluding treatment assignment. We
utilize the smoothed ramp loss function in RWL, and provide a difference of
convex (d.c.) algorithm to solve the corresponding non-convex optimization
problem. By estimating residuals with linear models or generalized linear
models, RWL can effectively deal with different types of outcomes, such as
continuous, binary and count outcomes. We also propose variable selection
methods for linear and nonlinear rules, respectively, to further improve the
performance. We show that the resulting estimator of the treatment rule is
consistent. We further obtain a rate of convergence for the difference between
the expected outcome using the estimated ITR and that of the optimal treatment
rule. The performance of the proposed RWL methods is illustrated in simulation
studies and in an analysis of cystic fibrosis clinical trial data.Comment: 48 pages, 3 figure
Statistical methods for critical scenarios in aeronautics
We present numerical results obtained on the CEMRACS project Predictive SMS
proposed by Safety Line. The goal of this work was to elaborate a purely
statistical method in order to reconstruct the deceleration profile of a plane
during landing under normal operating conditions, from a database containing
around recordings. The aim of Safety Line is to use this model to detect
malfunctions of the braking system of the plane from deviations of the measured
deceleration profile of the plane to the one predicted by the model. This
yields to a multivariate nonparametric regression problem, which we chose to
tackle using a Bayesian approach based on the use of gaussian processes. We
also compare this approach with other statistical methods.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figure
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