Predictive Uncertainty Estimation via Prior Networks

Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to distributional mismatch between the test and training data distributions. Different actions might be taken depending on the source of the uncertainty so it is important to be able to distinguish between them. Recently, baseline tasks and metrics have been defined and several practical methods to estimate uncertainty developed. These methods, however, attempt to model uncertainty due to distributional mismatch either implicitly through model uncertainty or as data uncertainty. This work proposes a new framework for modeling predictive uncertainty called Prior Networks (PNs) which explicitly models distributional uncertainty. PNs do this by parameterizing a prior distribution over predictive distributions. This work focuses on uncertainty for classification and evaluates PNs on the tasks of identifying out-of-distribution (OOD) samples and detecting misclassification on the MNIST dataset, where they are found to outperform previous methods. Experiments on synthetic and MNIST data show that unlike previous non-Bayesian methods PNs are able to distinguish between data and distributional uncertainty

Crowd Counting with Decomposed Uncertainty

Research in neural networks in the field of computer vision has achieved remarkable accuracy for point estimation. However, the uncertainty in the estimation is rarely addressed. Uncertainty quantification accompanied by point estimation can lead to a more informed decision, and even improve the prediction quality. In this work, we focus on uncertainty estimation in the domain of crowd counting. With increasing occurrences of heavily crowded events such as political rallies, protests, concerts, etc., automated crowd analysis is becoming an increasingly crucial task. The stakes can be very high in many of these real-world applications. We propose a scalable neural network framework with quantification of decomposed uncertainty using a bootstrap ensemble. We demonstrate that the proposed uncertainty quantification method provides additional insight to the crowd counting problem and is simple to implement. We also show that our proposed method exhibits the state of the art performances in many benchmark crowd counting datasets.Comment: Accepted in AAAI 2020 (Main Technical Track

Controlling Risk of Web Question Answering

Web question answering (QA) has become an indispensable component in modern search systems, which can significantly improve users' search experience by providing a direct answer to users' information need. This could be achieved by applying machine reading comprehension (MRC) models over the retrieved passages to extract answers with respect to the search query. With the development of deep learning techniques, state-of-the-art MRC performances have been achieved by recent deep methods. However, existing studies on MRC seldom address the predictive uncertainty issue, i.e., how likely the prediction of an MRC model is wrong, leading to uncontrollable risks in real-world Web QA applications. In this work, we first conduct an in-depth investigation over the risk of Web QA. We then introduce a novel risk control framework, which consists of a qualify model for uncertainty estimation using the probe idea, and a decision model for selectively output. For evaluation, we introduce risk-related metrics, rather than the traditional EM and F1 in MRC, for the evaluation of risk-aware Web QA. The empirical results over both the real-world Web QA dataset and the academic MRC benchmark collection demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.Comment: 42nd International ACM SIGIR Conference on Research and Development in Information Retrieva