Recurrent Neural Networks based Obesity Status Prediction Using Activity Data

Obesity is a serious public health concern world-wide, which increases the risk of many diseases, including hypertension, stroke, and type 2 diabetes. To tackle this problem, researchers across the health ecosystem are collecting diverse types of data, which includes biomedical, behavioral and activity, and utilizing machine learning techniques to mine hidden patterns for obesity status improvement prediction. While existing machine learning methods such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) can provide exceptional results, it is challenging to discover hidden patterns of the sequential data due to the irregular observation time instances. Meanwhile, the lack of understanding of why those learning models are effective also limits further improvements on their architectures. Thus, in this work, we develop a RNN based time-aware architecture to tackle the challenging problem of handling irregular observation times and relevant feature extractions from longitudinal patient records for obesity status improvement prediction. To improve the prediction performance, we train our model using two data sources: (i) electronic medical records containing information regarding lab tests, diagnoses, and demographics; (ii) continuous activity data collected from popular wearables. Evaluations of real-world data demonstrate that our proposed method can capture the underlying structures in users' time sequences with irregularities, and achieve an accuracy of 77-86% in predicting the obesity status improvement.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, ICMLA 2018 conferenc

Network Vector: Distributed Representations of Networks with Global Context

We propose a neural embedding algorithm called Network Vector, which learns distributed representations of nodes and the entire networks simultaneously. By embedding networks in a low-dimensional space, the algorithm allows us to compare networks in terms of structural similarity and to solve outstanding predictive problems. Unlike alternative approaches that focus on node level features, we learn a continuous global vector that captures each node's global context by maximizing the predictive likelihood of random walk paths in the network. Our algorithm is scalable to real world graphs with many nodes. We evaluate our algorithm on datasets from diverse domains, and compare it with state-of-the-art techniques in node classification, role discovery and concept analogy tasks. The empirical results show the effectiveness and the efficiency of our algorithm

Modeling Game Avatar Synergy and Opposition through Embedding in Multiplayer Online Battle Arena Games

Multiplayer Online Battle Arena (MOBA) games have received increasing worldwide popularity recently. In such games, players compete in teams against each other by controlling selected game avatars, each of which is designed with different strengths and weaknesses. Intuitively, putting together game avatars that complement each other (synergy) and suppress those of opponents (opposition) would result in a stronger team. In-depth understanding of synergy and opposition relationships among game avatars benefits player in making decisions in game avatar drafting and gaining better prediction of match events. However, due to intricate design and complex interactions between game avatars, thorough understanding of their relationships is not a trivial task. In this paper, we propose a latent variable model, namely Game Avatar Embedding (GAE), to learn avatars' numerical representations which encode synergy and opposition relationships between pairs of avatars. The merits of our model are twofold: (1) the captured synergy and opposition relationships are sensible to experienced human players' perception; (2) the learned numerical representations of game avatars allow many important downstream tasks, such as similar avatar search, match outcome prediction, and avatar pick recommender. To our best knowledge, no previous model is able to simultaneously support both features. Our quantitative and qualitative evaluations on real match data from three commercial MOBA games illustrate the benefits of our model.Comment: Note: this is a draft rejected by AIIDE 201

Deep Neural Networks for Optimal Team Composition

Cooperation is a fundamental social mechanism, whose effects on human performance have been investigated in several environments. Online games are modern-days natural settings in which cooperation strongly affects human behavior. Every day, millions of players connect and play together in team-based games: the patterns of cooperation can either foster or hinder individual skill learning and performance. This work has three goals: (i) identifying teammates' influence on players' performance in the short and long term, (ii) designing a computational framework to recommend teammates to improve players' performance, and (iii) setting to demonstrate that such improvements can be predicted via deep learning. We leverage a large dataset from Dota 2, a popular Multiplayer Online Battle Arena game. We generate a directed co-play network, whose links' weights depict the effect of teammates on players' performance. Specifically, we propose a measure of network influence that captures skill transfer from player to player over time. We then use such framing to design a recommendation system to suggest new teammates based on a modified deep neural autoencoder and we demonstrate its state-of-the-art recommendation performance. We finally provide insights into skill transfer effects: our experimental results demonstrate that such dynamics can be predicted using deep neural networks

Combining complex networks and data mining: why and how

The increasing power of computer technology does not dispense with the need to extract meaningful in- formation out of data sets of ever growing size, and indeed typically exacerbates the complexity of this task. To tackle this general problem, two methods have emerged, at chronologically different times, that are now commonly used in the scientific community: data mining and complex network theory. Not only do complex network analysis and data mining share the same general goal, that of extracting information from complex systems to ultimately create a new compact quantifiable representation, but they also often address similar problems too. In the face of that, a surprisingly low number of researchers turn out to resort to both methodologies. One may then be tempted to conclude that these two fields are either largely redundant or totally antithetic. The starting point of this review is that this state of affairs should be put down to contingent rather than conceptual differences, and that these two fields can in fact advantageously be used in a synergistic manner. An overview of both fields is first provided, some fundamental concepts of which are illustrated. A variety of contexts in which complex network theory and data mining have been used in a synergistic manner are then presented. Contexts in which the appropriate integration of complex network metrics can lead to improved classification rates with respect to classical data mining algorithms and, conversely, contexts in which data mining can be used to tackle important issues in complex network theory applications are illustrated. Finally, ways to achieve a tighter integration between complex networks and data mining, and open lines of research are discussed.Comment: 58 pages, 19 figure

Stable Multiple Time Step Simulation/Prediction from Lagged Dynamic Network Regression Models

Recent developments in computers and automated data collection strategies have greatly increased the interest in statistical modeling of dynamic networks. Many of the statistical models employed for inference on large-scale dynamic networks suffer from limited forward simulation/prediction ability. A major problem with many of the forward simulation procedures is the tendency for the model to become degenerate in only a few time steps, i.e., the simulation/prediction procedure results in either null graphs or complete graphs. Here, we describe an algorithm for simulating a sequence of networks generated from lagged dynamic network regression models DNR(V), a sub-family of TERGMs. We introduce a smoothed estimator for forward prediction based on smoothing of the change statistics obtained for a dynamic network regression model. We focus on the implementation of the algorithm, providing a series of motivating examples with comparisons to dynamic network models from the literature. We find that our algorithm significantly improves multi-step prediction/simulation over standard DNR(V) forecasting. Furthermore, we show that our method performs comparably to existing more complex dynamic network analysis frameworks (SAOM and STERGMs) for small networks over short time periods, and significantly outperforms these approaches over long time time intervals and/or large networks

Multiresolution Tensor Decomposition for Multiple Spatial Passing Networks

This article is motivated by soccer positional passing networks collected across multiple games. We refer to these data as replicated spatial passing networks---to accurately model such data it is necessary to take into account the spatial positions of the passer and receiver for each passing event. This spatial registration and replicates that occur across games represent key differences with usual social network data. As a key step before investigating how the passing dynamics influence team performance, we focus on developing methods for summarizing different team's passing strategies. Our proposed approach relies on a novel multiresolution data representation framework and Poisson nonnegative block term decomposition model, which automatically produces coarse-to-fine low-rank network motifs. The proposed methods are applied to detailed passing record data collected from the 2014 FIFA World Cup.Comment: 34 pages, 15 figure

Learning Sports Camera Selection from Internet Videos

This work addresses camera selection, the task of predicting which camera should be "on air" from multiple candidate cameras for soccer broadcast. The task is challenging because of the scarcity of learning data with all candidate views. Meanwhile, broadcast videos are freely available on the Internet (e.g. Youtube). However, these videos only record the selected camera views, omitting the other candidate views. To overcome this problem, we first introduce a random survival forest (RSF) method to impute the incomplete data effectively. Then, we propose a spatial-appearance heatmap to describe foreground objects (e.g. players and balls) in an image. To evaluate the performance of our system, we collect the largest-ever dataset for soccer broadcasting camera selection. It has one main game which has all candidate views and twelve auxiliary games which only have the broadcast view. Our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods on this challenging dataset. Further analysis suggests that the improvement in performance is indeed from the extra information from auxiliary games.Comment: 8 + 2 pages, WACV2019 accepte

Dynamic Graph Convolutional Networks

Many different classification tasks need to manage structured data, which are usually modeled as graphs. Moreover, these graphs can be dynamic, meaning that the vertices/edges of each graph may change during time. Our goal is to jointly exploit structured data and temporal information through the use of a neural network model. To the best of our knowledge, this task has not been addressed using these kind of architectures. For this reason, we propose two novel approaches, which combine Long Short-Term Memory networks and Graph Convolutional Networks to learn long short-term dependencies together with graph structure. The quality of our methods is confirmed by the promising results achieved

Link Prediction in Social Networks: the State-of-the-Art

In social networks, link prediction predicts missing links in current networks and new or dissolution links in future networks, is important for mining and analyzing the evolution of social networks. In the past decade, many works have been done about the link prediction in social networks. The goal of this paper is to comprehensively review, analyze and discuss the state-of-the-art of the link prediction in social networks. A systematical category for link prediction techniques and problems is presented. Then link prediction techniques and problems are analyzed and discussed. Typical applications of link prediction are also addressed. Achievements and roadmaps of some active research groups are introduced. Finally, some future challenges of the link prediction in social networks are discussed.Comment: 38 pages, 13 figures, Science China: Information Science, 201