Predictive positioning and quality of service ridesharing for campus mobility on demand systems

Autonomous Mobility On Demand (MOD) systems can utilize fleet management strategies in order to provide a high customer quality of service (QoS). Previous works on autonomous MOD systems have developed methods for rebalancing single capacity vehicles, where QoS is maintained through large fleet sizing. This work focuses on MOD systems utilizing a small number of vehicles, such as those found on a campus, where additional vehicles cannot be introduced as demand for rides increases. A predictive positioning method is presented for improving customer QoS by identifying key locations to position the fleet in order to minimize expected customer wait time. Ridesharing is introduced as a means for improving customer QoS as arrival rates increase. However, with ridesharing perceived QoS is dependent on an often unknown customer preference. To address this challenge, a customer ratings model, which learns customer preference from a 5-star rating, is developed and incorporated directly into a ridesharing algorithm. The predictive positioning and ridesharing methods are applied to simulation of a real-world campus MOD system. A combined predictive positioning and ridesharing approach is shown to reduce customer service times by up to 29%. and the customer ratings model is shown to provide the best overall MOD fleet management performance over a range of customer preferences.Ford Motor CompanyFord-MIT Allianc

Online Predictive Optimization Framework for Stochastic Demand-Responsive Transit Services

This study develops an online predictive optimization framework for dynamically operating a transit service in an area of crowd movements. The proposed framework integrates demand prediction and supply optimization to periodically redesign the service routes based on recently observed demand. To predict demand for the service, we use Quantile Regression to estimate the marginal distribution of movement counts between each pair of serviced locations. The framework then combines these marginals into a joint demand distribution by constructing a Gaussian copula, which captures the structure of correlation between the marginals. For supply optimization, we devise a linear programming model, which simultaneously determines the route structure and the service frequency according to the predicted demand. Importantly, our framework both preserves the uncertainty structure of future demand and leverages this for robust route optimization, while keeping both components decoupled. We evaluate our framework using a real-world case study of autonomous mobility in a university campus in Denmark. The results show that our framework often obtains the ground truth optimal solution, and can outperform conventional methods for route optimization, which do not leverage full predictive distributions.Comment: 34 pages, 12 figures, 5 table

Privacy-Preserving Vehicle Assignment for Mobility-on-Demand Systems

Urban transportation is being transformed by mobility-on-demand (MoD) systems. One of the goals of MoD systems is to provide personalized transportation services to passengers. This process is facilitated by a centralized operator that coordinates the assignment of vehicles to individual passengers, based on location data. However, current approaches assume that accurate positioning information for passengers and vehicles is readily available. This assumption raises privacy concerns. In this work, we address this issue by proposing a method that protects passengers' drop-off locations (i.e., their travel destinations). Formally, we solve a batch assignment problem that routes vehicles at obfuscated origin locations to passenger locations (since origin locations correspond to previous drop-off locations), such that the mean waiting time is minimized. Our main contributions are two-fold. First, we formalize the notion of privacy for continuous vehicle-to-passenger assignment in MoD systems, and integrate a privacy mechanism that provides formal guarantees. Second, we present a scalable algorithm that takes advantage of superfluous (idle) vehicles in the system, combining multiple iterations of the Hungarian algorithm to allocate a redundant number of vehicles to a single passenger. As a result, we are able to reduce the performance deterioration induced by the privacy mechanism. We evaluate our methods on a real, large-scale data set consisting of over 11 million taxi rides (specifying vehicle availability and passenger requests), recorded over a month's duration, in the area of Manhattan, New York. Our work demonstrates that privacy can be integrated into MoD systems without incurring a significant loss of performance, and moreover, that this loss can be further minimized at the cost of deploying additional (redundant) vehicles into the fleet.Comment: 8 pages; Submitted to IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems (IROS), 201

Modeling Individual Activity and Mobility Behavior and Assessing Ridesharing Impacts Using Emerging Data Sources

Predicting individual mobility behavior is one of the major steps of transportation planning models. Accurate prediction of individual mobility behavior will be beneficial for transportation planning. Although previous studies have used different data sources to model individual mobility behaviors, they have several limitations such as the lack of complete mobility sequences and travel mode information, limiting our ability to accurately predict individual movements. In recent years, the emergence of GPS-based floating car data (FCD) and on-demand ride-hailing service platforms can provide innovative data sources to understand and model individual mobility behavior. Compared to the previously used data sources such as mobile phone and social media data, mobility data extracted of the new data sources contain more specific, detailed, and longitudinal information of individual travel mode and coordinates of the visited locations. This dissertation explores the potential of using GPS-based FCD and on-demand ride-hailing service data with different modeling techniques towards understanding and predicting individual mobility and activity behaviors and assessing the ridesharing impacts through three studies

Book of abstracts of the 24th Euro Working Group on Transportation Meeting

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