Development of a PSO-ANN Model for Rainfall-Runoff Response in Basins, Case Study: Karaj Basin

Successful daily river flow forecasting is necessary in water resources planning and management. A reliable rainfall-runoff model can provide useful information for water resources planning and management. In this study, particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) as a metaheuristic approach is employed to train artificial neural network (ANN). The proposed PSO-ANN model is applied to simulate the rainfall runoff process in Karaj River for one and two days ahead. In this regard, different combinations of the input variables including flow and rainfall time series in previous days have been taken under consideration in order to obtain the best model's performances. To evaluate efficiency of the PSO algorithm in training ANNs, separate ANN models are developed using Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) training algorithm and the results are compared with those of the PSO-ANN models. The comparison reveals superiority of the PSO algorithm than the LM algorithm in training the ANN models. The best model for 1 and 2 days ahead runoff forecasting has R2 of 0.88 and 0.78. Results of this study shows that a reliable prediction of runoff in 1 and 2 days ahead can be achieved using PSO-ANN model. Overall, results of this study revealed that an acceptable prediction of the runoff up to two days ahead can be achieved by applying the PSO-ANN model

Predictive modelling for solar thermal energy systems: A comparison of support vector regression, random forest, extra trees and regression trees

Predictive analytics play an important role in the management of decentralised energy systems. Prediction models of uncontrolled variables (e.g., renewable energy sources generation, building energy consumption) are required to optimally manage electrical and thermal grids, making informed decisions and for fault detection and diagnosis. The paper presents a comprehensive study to compare tree-based ensemble machine learning models (random forest – RF and extra trees – ET), decision trees (DT) and support vector regression (SVR) to predict the useful hourly energy from a solar thermal collector system. The developed models were compared based on their generalisation ability (stability), accuracy and computational cost. It was found that RF and ET have comparable predictive power and are equally applicable for predicting useful solar thermal energy (USTE), with root mean square error (RMSE) values of 6.86 and 7.12 on the testing dataset, respectively. Amongst the studied algorithms, DT is the most computationally efficient method as it requires significantly less training time. However, it is less accurate (RMSE = 8.76) than RF and ET. The training time of SVR was 1287.80 ms, which was approximately three times higher than the ET training time

Performance Analysis of Deep-Learning and Explainable AI Techniques for Detecting and Predicting Epileptic Seizures

Epilepsy is one of the most common neurological diseases globally. Notably, people in low to middle-income nations could not get proper epilepsy treatment due to the cost and availability of medical infrastructure. The risk of sudden unpredicted death in Epilepsy is considerably high. Medical statistics reveal that people with Epilepsy die more prematurely than those without the disease. Early and accurately diagnosing diseases in the medical field is challenging due to the complex disease patterns and the need for time-sensitive medical responses to the patients. Even though numerous machine learning and advanced deep learning techniques have been employed for the seizure stages classification and prediction, understanding the causes behind the decision is difficult, termed a black box problem. Hence, doctors and patients are confronted with the black box decision-making to initiate the appropriate treatment and understand the disease patterns respectively. Owing to the scarcity of epileptic Electroencephalography (EEG) data, training the deep learning model with diversified epilepsy knowledge is still critical. Explainable Artificial intelligence has become a potential solution to provide the explanation and result interpretation of the learning models. By applying the explainable AI, there is a higher possibility of examining the features that influence the decision-making that either the patient recorded from epileptic or non-epileptic EEG signals. This paper reviews the various deep learning and Explainable AI techniques used for detecting and predicting epileptic seizures  using EEG data. It provides a comparative analysis of the different techniques based on their performance

Machine Learning Tools in the Predictive Analysis of ERCOT Load Demand Data

The electric load industry has seen a significant transformation over the last few decades, culminating in the establishment and implementation of electricity markets. This transition separates electric generation services into a distinct, more competitive sector of the industry, allowing for the introduction of greater unpredictability into the system. Forecasting power system load has developed into a core research area in power and energy demand engineering in order to maintain a constant balance between electricity supply and demand. The purpose of this thesis dissertation is to reduce power system uncertainty by improving forecasting accuracy through the use of sophisticated machine learning techniques. Additionally, this research provides sophisticated machine learning-based forecasting methodologies for the three forecasting professions from a variety of perspectives, incorporating several advanced deep learning features such as Naïve/default, Hyperparameter Tuning, and Custom Early Stopping. We begin by creating long-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) models for ERCOT demand data, and then compare them to some of the most well-known supervised machine learning models, such as ARIMA and SARIMA, to identify the best set of models for long- and short-term load forecasting. We will also use multiple comparison approaches, such as the radar chart and the Pygal radar chart, to perform a thorough evaluation of each of the deep learning models before settling on the best model

Multidimensional CNN and LSTM for Predicting Epilepsy Seizure Activities

Epilepsy is a chronic neurological disease caused by sudden abnormal brain discharges, leading to temporary brain dysfunction. It can manifest in various ways, including paroxysmal movement, sensory, autonomic nerve, awareness, and mental abnormalities. It is now the second largest neurological disorder worldwide, affecting around 70 million people and increasing by approximately 2 million new cases each year. While about 70% of epilepsy patients can control their seizures with regular antiepileptic drugs, surgery, or nerve stimulation treatments, the remaining 30% suffer from intractable epilepsy without effective treatment, causing significant burden and potential danger to their lives. Early prediction and treatment are crucial to prevent harm to patients. Electroencephalogram (EEG) is a valuable tool for diagnosing epilepsy as it records the brain's electrical activity. EEG can be divided into scalp and intracranial types, and doctors typically analyze EEG signals of epileptic patients into four periods

Thaat Classification Using Recurrent Neural Networks with Long Short-Term Memory and Support Vector Machine

This research paper introduces a groundbreaking method for music classification, emphasizing thaats rather than the conventional raga-centric approach. A comprehensive range of audio features, including amplitude envelope, RMSE, STFT, spectral centroid, MFCC, spectral bandwidth, and zero-crossing rate, is meticulously used to capture thaats' distinct characteristics in Indian classical music. Importantly, the study predicts emotional responses linked with the identified thaats. The dataset encompasses a diverse collection of musical compositions, each representing unique thaats. Three classifier models - RNN-LSTM, SVM, and HMM - undergo thorough training and testing to evaluate their classification performance. Initial findings showcase promising accuracies, with the RNN-LSTM model achieving 85% and SVM performing at 78%. These results highlight the effectiveness of this innovative approach in accurately categorizing music based on thaats and predicting associated emotional responses, providing a fresh perspective on music analysis in Indian classical music

Monthly Forecasting of Water Quality Parameters within Bayesian Networks: A Case Study of Honolulu, Pacific Ocean

This study investigates the efficiency of Bayesian network (BN) and also artificial neural network models for predicting water quality parameters in Honolulu, Pacific Ocean. Monthly forecasting of three important characteristics of water body including water temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen have been taken under consideration. Two separate strategies were applied in which the first strategy was related to prediction of the water quality parameters based on previous time series of the same variable. In the second strategy, an attempt was made to forecast DO using different affecting parameters such as temperature, salinity, previous time series of DO, and amount of chlorophyll. The efficiency of the models were assessed by using error measures. Results revealed that the BN models are superior over the ANN models in case of temperature and DO forecasting. Also, it was found that the first strategy is more efficient than the second strategy for predicting DO concentration. The best BN models for temperature, salinity and DO were achieved when time series of the same parameter up to 3, 2, and 3 previous months applied as input variables respectively. Overall, it can be concluded that BN and ANN models can be successfully applied for water quality modelling and forecasting in coastal waters. Moreover, the current study demonstrated that the BN models have a great ability dealing with time series including incomplete or missing data

Detection and Predicting Air Pollution Level in a Specific City using Deep Learning

Air pollution affects millions of people worldwide, making it a growing issue. Deep learning can identify and forecast metropolitan air pollution. Deep learning needs a massive dataset of air quality measurements and meteorological factors to predict city air pollution levels. Government monitoring stations and citizen scientific programs collect this data. Once we have our dataset, we can apply deep learning to develop a model that predicts air pollution levels. Temperature, humidity, wind speed, and air quality data will be used to predict future air pollution levels. Predicting air pollution using the LSTM network is popular. This neural network works well with air quality time-series data. The LSTM network's long-term data learning is essential for accurate air pollution predictions. We would pre-process our data to prepare it for an LSTM network to predict air pollution. Scaling, splitting, and encoding data may be needed. Train the LSTM network using backpropagation and gradient descent on our dataset. Adjusting the network's weights and biases would lessen the air pollution gap. After training, the network can predict city air quality. Inputting current meteorological and environmental factors may help accomplish this aim and deliver timely predictions. Deep learning can detect and predict urban air pollution. LSTM neural network algorithms may accurately forecast complex air quality data patterns, providing vital information about our planet's health

Dual-Class Stocks: Can They Serve as Effective Predictors?

Kardemir Karabuk Iron Steel Industry Trade & Co. Inc., ranked as the 24th largest industrial company in Turkey, offers three distinct stocks listed on the Borsa Istanbul: KRDMA, KRDMB, and KRDMD. These stocks, sharing the sole difference in voting power, have exhibited significant price divergence over an extended period. This paper conducts an in-depth analysis of the divergence patterns observed in these three stock prices from January 2001 to July 2023. Additionally, it introduces an innovative training set selection rule tailored for LSTM models, incorporating a rolling training set, and demonstrates its significant predictive superiority over the conventional use of LSTM models with large training sets. Despite their strong correlation, the study found no compelling evidence supporting the efficiency of dual-class stocks as predictors of each other's performance

A Study on Comparison of Classification Algorithms for Pump Failure Prediction

The reliability of pumps can be compromised by faults, impacting their functionality. Detecting these faults is crucial, and many studies have utilized motor current signals for this purpose. However, as pumps are rotational equipped, vibrations also play a vital role in fault identification. Rising pump failures have led to increased maintenance costs and unavailability, emphasizing the need for cost-effective and dependable machinery operation. This study addresses the imperative challenge of defect classification through the lens of predictive modeling. With a problem statement centered on achieving accurate and efficient identification of defects, this study’s objective is to evaluate the performance of five distinct algorithms: Fine Decision Tree, Medium Decision Tree, Bagged Trees (Ensemble), RUS-Boosted Trees, and Boosted Trees. Leveraging a comprehensive dataset, the study meticulously trained and tested each model, analyzing training accuracy, test accuracy, and Area Under the Curve (AUC) metrics. The results showcase the supremacy of the Fine Decision Tree (91.2% training accuracy, 74% test accuracy, AUC 0.80), the robustness of the Ensemble approach (Bagged Trees with 94.9% training accuracy, 99.9% test accuracy, and AUC 1.00), and the competitiveness of Boosted Trees (89.4% training accuracy, 72.2% test accuracy, AUC 0.79) in defect classification. Notably, Support Vector Machines (SVM), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) exhibited comparatively lower performance. Our study contributes valuable insights into the efficacy of these algorithms, guiding practitioners toward optimal model selection for defect classification scenarios. This research lays a foundation for enhanced decision-making in quality control and predictive maintenance, fostering advancements in the realm of defect prediction and classification