3,569 research outputs found
LSTM Networks for Data-Aware Remaining Time Prediction of Business Process Instances
Predicting the completion time of business process instances would be a very
helpful aid when managing processes under service level agreement constraints.
The ability to know in advance the trend of running process instances would
allow business managers to react in time, in order to prevent delays or
undesirable situations. However, making such accurate forecasts is not easy:
many factors may influence the required time to complete a process instance. In
this paper, we propose an approach based on deep Recurrent Neural Networks
(specifically LSTMs) that is able to exploit arbitrary information associated
to single events, in order to produce an as-accurate-as-possible prediction of
the completion time of running instances. Experiments on real-world datasets
confirm the quality of our proposal.Comment: Article accepted for publication in 2017 IEEE Symposium on Deep
Learning (IEEE DL'17) @ SSC
Efficient computation of updated lower expectations for imprecise continuous-time hidden Markov chains
We consider the problem of performing inference with imprecise
continuous-time hidden Markov chains, that is, imprecise continuous-time Markov
chains that are augmented with random output variables whose distribution
depends on the hidden state of the chain. The prefix `imprecise' refers to the
fact that we do not consider a classical continuous-time Markov chain, but
replace it with a robust extension that allows us to represent various types of
model uncertainty, using the theory of imprecise probabilities. The inference
problem amounts to computing lower expectations of functions on the state-space
of the chain, given observations of the output variables. We develop and
investigate this problem with very few assumptions on the output variables; in
particular, they can be chosen to be either discrete or continuous random
variables. Our main result is a polynomial runtime algorithm to compute the
lower expectation of functions on the state-space at any given time-point,
given a collection of observations of the output variables
Interpretable Categorization of Heterogeneous Time Series Data
Understanding heterogeneous multivariate time series data is important in
many applications ranging from smart homes to aviation. Learning models of
heterogeneous multivariate time series that are also human-interpretable is
challenging and not adequately addressed by the existing literature. We propose
grammar-based decision trees (GBDTs) and an algorithm for learning them. GBDTs
extend decision trees with a grammar framework. Logical expressions derived
from a context-free grammar are used for branching in place of simple
thresholds on attributes. The added expressivity enables support for a wide
range of data types while retaining the interpretability of decision trees. In
particular, when a grammar based on temporal logic is used, we show that GBDTs
can be used for the interpretable classi cation of high-dimensional and
heterogeneous time series data. Furthermore, we show how GBDTs can also be used
for categorization, which is a combination of clustering and generating
interpretable explanations for each cluster. We apply GBDTs to analyze the
classic Australian Sign Language dataset as well as data on near mid-air
collisions (NMACs). The NMAC data comes from aircraft simulations used in the
development of the next-generation Airborne Collision Avoidance System (ACAS
X).Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables, SIAM International Conference on Data
Mining (SDM) 201
- …