Tracking Down the Business Cycle: A Dynamic Factor Model For Germany 1820-1913

We use a Bayesian dynamic factor model to measure Germany’s pre World War I economic activity. The procedure makes better use of existing time series data than historical national accounting. To investigate industrialization we propose to look at comovement between sectors. We find that Germany’s industrial sector developed earlier than stated in the literature, since after the 1860s agricultural time series do not comove with the business cycle anymore. Also, the bulk of comovement between 1820 and 1913 can be traced back to five out of 18 series representing industrial production, investment and demand for industrial inputs. Our factor is impressingly confirmed by a stock price index, leading the factor by 1-2 years. We also find evidence for early market integration in the 1820s and 1830s. Our business cycle dating aims to resolve the debate on German business cycle history. Given the often unsatisfactory quality of national accounting data for the 19th century we show the advantage of dynamic factor models in making efficient use of rare historical time series.Business Cycle Chronology; Imperial Germany; Dynamic Factor Models; Industrialization.

The Effects of Water Resource Development on Regional Growth: Factors Affecting the Relation and Insights from Case Studies

It was the original intent of this paper to isolate the conditions which would, in a particular regional setting, make water development both necessary and sufficient for the initiation of a self-sustaining regional growth process. The paper ends up arguing that very seldom can we expect water development to be either necessary or sufficient, once growth has moved beyond its earliest stages. Growth and its economic organization are much more complicated and yet more flexible and resilient than that. The conclusions may be useful guidelines to future regional planning activities. At a minimum, the paper may stimulate further discussion of the Water Project's role in the Integrated Regional Development Project

Lean manufacturing e ergonomia na industria metalúrgica: uma abordagem integrada para a melhoria de desempenho

Due to an increasingly competive market, most companies can only survive through continuous improvement, by increasing their productivity and reducing costs. The Lean Production System (SPL) is more and more often used for this purpose.However, the workers' well-being is often neglected, leading to musculoskeletal problems and other occupational diseases. Several authors have identified a gap in the literature regarding the identification of the best practices in the integration of the prevention of musculoskeletal diseases in an SPL. The main objective of this thesis is to clarify the relationship between Ergonomics and LPS and provide the necessary tools for practitioners to implement an ergonomic LPS in their production areas. To achieve this objective, a systematic review was performed and case studies were conducted in four production areas in a metallurgical company using Lean concepts, ergonomic analysis and simulation. From the results found in the literature, which were validated by the four case studies, we can conclude that the integration of Ergonomics during an SPL implementation has the potential to result in gains in productivity and simultaneously improve working conditions. To potentiate these results, several components must be taken into account, namely: the integration of ergonomics in the design of the workstation, the tools for monitoring and evaluation, training and the automation of the manual tasks. Beyond the results obtained and the lessons learned from the case studies, two important tools were developed and validated which were a great support to the implementation of future studies in different areas or sectors: the methodology flowchart and ErgoSafeCI (a tool to evaluate and monitor the LPS implementation while taking into account the ergonomic and safety aspects of a production area). This work offers a valuable contribution for researchers and professionals because it demonstrates how the integration of ergonomics into an SPL increases productivity by providing the necessary tools which make it possible to replicate the procedure in other production areas or sectors.Atualmente, devido ao mercado cada vez mais competitivo, a maioria das empresas só sobrevive através da melhoria contínua, aumentando a produtividade e diminuindo os custos. O Sistema de Produção Lean (SPL) é cada vez mais usado com esse objetivo. No entanto, o bem estar dos trabalhadores é muitas vezes negligenciado, levando a problemas músculoesqueléticos e a outras doenças profissionais. Diversos autores identificam uma falha na literatura quanto à identificação das melhores práticas na integração da prevenção das doenças músculoesqueléticas num SPL. O objetivo principal desta tese é clarificar a relação entre a Ergonomia e um SPL e desenvolver as ferramentas necessárias para ajudar os profissionais na implementação de um SPL ergonómico nas suas áreas produtivas. Para atingir esse objetivo foi realizada uma revisão sistemática à literatura e foram desenvolvidos casos de estudo em quatro áreas produtivas numa empresa metalúrgica onde foram usados vários conceitos Lean, análises ergonómicas e a simulação. Através dos resultados encontrados na literatura e validados nos casos de estudo, concluímos que a integração da ergonomia durante a implementação de um SPL resulta em ganhos de produtividade e simultaneamente melhora as condições de trabalho. Para potenciar estes resultados, diversos fatores devem ser considerados, nomeadamente: a integração da ergonomia no desenho do posto trabalho, nas ferramentas de monitorização e avaliação, na formação e a automatização das tarefas manuais. Para além dos resultados obtidos através dos casos de estudo, e da identificação de algumas “best practices” através das lições aprendidas ao longo deste trabalho, foram ainda desenvolvidas e validadas duas ferramentas importantes no apoio à implementação de futuros estudos em diferentes áreas produtivas e setores: a ErgoSafeCI (ferramenta para avaliar e monitorizar a implementação de um SPL considerando os aspetos ergonómicos e de segurança numa área produtiva) e uma proposta de metodologia geral para abordar a questão da integração das práticas Lean com as práticas de ergonomia. Este trabalho apresenta um contributo, que se espera valioso, para investigadores e profissionais por demonstrar como a integração da ergonomia num SPL potencia a produtividade fornecendo as ferramentas necessárias para a replicação da metodologia proposta noutras áreas produtivas.Programa Doutoral em Engenharia e Gestão Industria

Internationalization of production in Kazakhstan and its economic implications: the role of foreign investment and transnational corporations

This licentiate thesis examines the development of internationalization of production in Kazakhstan and its economic implications over the period 1991-2010. The main objectives of the thesis are to investigate the role of foreign investment and TNCs in the economic growth of Kazakhstan since its independence in 1991 and onward, to explore the motives that foreign enterprises have for investing in Kazakhstan, and to understand how the internationalization of production affected the Kazakhstani economy during the period 1991-2010. In order to address these objectives, the thesis utilizes Dunning’s eclectic paradigm to analyze the determinants of foreign investment in Kazakhstan. It also explores whether FDI in Kazakhstan is resource-seeking or market-seeking. The foreign investors are mainly interested in the extractive industries in Kazakhstan. In the period 1991-2010, on average 76 percent of the total FDI in the country was attracted to the primary sectors, mainly to oil and gas extraction, while the share of market-seeking investment was less than 3% of the total FDI inflow to Kazakhstan. The assessment of the Investment Development Path of Kazakhstan over the last two decades suggests that the level of development of the country may correspond to either stage II or III. The relatively high income level of Kazakhstan supports the conclusion that the country is entering stage III; however, the changes of inward and outward FDI in Kazakhstan, leading to increasingly negative NOI positions, characterize a country at stage II of the IDP. The second stage of the IDP is also characterized by significantly increasing inward FDI due to the development of some L-specific advantages that raise the country’s attractiveness to TNCs. However, outward FDI remains very limited because the O-advantages of domestic firms are still weak

Geographical and behavioral economics of political risk for foreign direct investment location

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 2003.Special Program of Urban and Regional Studies (SPURS)Includes bibliographical references (p. 139-145).This thesis analyzes the perception gap between political risk assessments observed at the national level, and the different realities of sub-national city regions whose risk regime is not reflected by the national indicators, and its implication on foreign direct investment (FDI) location decisions. The purpose of this research is to understand how and why the national political risk assessments of countries with internal armed conflicts override the ability of regional investment promotion agencies to attract FDI into financially sound projects of high developmental value. This thesis complements the standard political risk underlying theories with geographical and behavioral economic theories, in order to propose a sub-national political-risk-assessment approach that could show the safer regions within riskier countries. It is based on the analysis of the Colombian Metallurgical Coke and Power Plant Project COLMECO, designed to be located in the Barranquilla Metropolitan Area, within the Atlantico Department, a region that has traditionally experienced no open internal armed conflict confrontation. The conclusions of this research prove and justify the sub-national risk assessment approach proposed.by Alberto E. Blanco.S.M

Impact of general purchasing power accounting on Greek accounts

This Study addressed the inflation accounting problem with respect to Greece. This problem had been unaddressed despite the serious implications it may have on micro- and macro-decision making due to the high and persistent inflation Greece has sustained from 1973 and afterwards. To accomplish the above purpose, the general significance of inflation accounting as well as its specific significance for Greece was established by means of the existing inflation accounting literature and the economic setting of Greece. Following this, the relevance of GPPA rather than CCA to the Greek financial reporting was established by means of correspondence between specific features of GPPA and specific characteristics of the Greek setting. After having established the a priori relevance of GPPA for Greece, the potential usefulness of GPPA to the Greek users of accounts was established as well on an empirical basis. For this purpose the impact of GPPA on Greek accounts was approximated ex ante through detailed restatement procedures and estimation techniques. It was found that inflation has a serious impact on earnings and especially on such important (for decision making) financial parameters as tax rate, dividend payout ratio, and return on capital employed. This impact of inflation on earnings does not seem to be systematic, and hence it cannot be estimated by use of HCA numbers. Therefore, GPPA should be adopted at least on a supplementary (to HCA) basis, if in the future the increase in the inflation rate continues to be as high as it was in the period examined by the study (i.e. 25% or so). In additon to the main conclusion above, other conclusions drawn on the basis of the empirical findings obtained are as follows: 1. The Composite Age Technique used (mainly in the USA) for the restatement of fixed assets and depreciation does not work at all in the Greek case. In contrast, the Dichotomus Year Technique in the first place, and the Equal Additions Technique, in the second place, may be used for adjusting fixed assets not only in developing countries like Greece, but, perhaps in developed countries as well. 2. Operation costs of GPPA can be saved by restating fixed assets and depreciation on an annual rather than monthly basis. 3. Perhaps the Greek government should consider the taxes imposed on corporate net profits in times of high inflation because it was found that the effective tax rate is substantially different from the nominal one. 4. There are serious implications for the Greek businesses in the finding that in real term dividends are paid out of capital rather than out of income. 5. The profitability of Greek companies is low when measured in real terms. Hence, businessmen should exercise every effort to improve it. On the other hand, the Greek government should consider the prices control imposed