Supporting group maintenance through prognostics-enhanced dynamic dependability prediction

Condition-based maintenance strategies adapt maintenance planning through the integration of online condition monitoring of assets. The accuracy and cost-effectiveness of these strategies can be improved by integrating prognostics predictions and grouping maintenance actions respectively. In complex industrial systems, however, effective condition-based maintenance is intricate. Such systems are comprised of repairable assets which can fail in different ways, with various effects, and typically governed by dynamics which include time-dependent and conditional events. In this context, system reliability prediction is complex and effective maintenance planning is virtually impossible prior to system deployment and hard even in the case of condition-based maintenance. Addressing these issues, this paper presents an online system maintenance method that takes into account the system dynamics. The method employs an online predictive diagnosis algorithm to distinguish between critical and non-critical assets. A prognostics-updated method for predicting the system health is then employed to yield well-informed, more accurate, condition-based suggestions for the maintenance of critical assets and for the group-based reactive repair of non-critical assets. The cost-effectiveness of the approach is discussed in a case study from the power industry

Validation of Ultrahigh Dependability for Software-Based Systems

Modern society depends on computers for a number of critical tasks in which failure can have very high costs. As a consequence, high levels of dependability (reliability, safety, etc.) are required from such computers, including their software. Whenever a quantitative approach to risk is adopted, these requirements must be stated in quantitative terms, and a rigorous demonstration of their being attained is necessary. For software used in the most critical roles, such demonstrations are not usually supplied. The fact is that the dependability requirements often lie near the limit of the current state of the art, or beyond, in terms not only of the ability to satisfy them, but also, and more often, of the ability to demonstrate that they are satisfied in the individual operational products (validation). We discuss reasons why such demonstrations cannot usually be provided with the means available: reliability growth models, testing with stable reliability, structural dependability modelling, as well as more informal arguments based on good engineering practice. We state some rigorous arguments about the limits of what can be validated with each of such means. Combining evidence from these different sources would seem to raise the levels that can be validated; yet this improvement is not such as to solve the problem. It appears that engineering practice must take into account the fact that no solution exists, at present, for the validation of ultra-high dependability in systems relying on complex software

Consciosusness in Cognitive Architectures. A Principled Analysis of RCS, Soar and ACT-R

This report analyses the aplicability of the principles of consciousness developed in the ASys project to three of the most relevant cognitive architectures. This is done in relation to their aplicability to build integrated control systems and studying their support for general mechanisms of real-time consciousness.\ud To analyse these architectures the ASys Framework is employed. This is a conceptual framework based on an extension for cognitive autonomous systems of the General Systems Theory (GST).\ud A general qualitative evaluation criteria for cognitive architectures is established based upon: a) requirements for a cognitive architecture, b) the theoretical framework based on the GST and c) core design principles for integrated cognitive conscious control systems

A synthesis of logic and bio-inspired techniques in the design of dependable systems

Much of the development of model-based design and dependability analysis in the design of dependable systems, including software intensive systems, can be attributed to the application of advances in formal logic and its application to fault forecasting and verification of systems. In parallel, work on bio-inspired technologies has shown potential for the evolutionary design of engineering systems via automated exploration of potentially large design spaces. We have not yet seen the emergence of a design paradigm that effectively combines these two techniques, schematically founded on the two pillars of formal logic and biology, from the early stages of, and throughout, the design lifecycle. Such a design paradigm would apply these techniques synergistically and systematically to enable optimal refinement of new designs which can be driven effectively by dependability requirements. The paper sketches such a model-centric paradigm for the design of dependable systems, presented in the scope of the HiP-HOPS tool and technique, that brings these technologies together to realise their combined potential benefits. The paper begins by identifying current challenges in model-based safety assessment and then overviews the use of meta-heuristics at various stages of the design lifecycle covering topics that span from allocation of dependability requirements, through dependability analysis, to multi-objective optimisation of system architectures and maintenance schedules

Real-Time Physiological Simulation and Modeling toward Dependable Patient Monitoring Systems

We present a novel approach to describe dependability measures for intelligent patient monitoring devices. The strategy is based on using a combination of methods from system theory and real-time physiological simulations. For the first time not only the technical device but also the patient is taken into consideration. Including the patient requires prediction of physiology which is achieved by a real-time physiological simulation in a continuous time domain, whereby one of the main ingredients is a temporal reasoning element. The quality of the reasoning is expressed by a dependability analysis strategy. Thereby, anomalies are expressed as differences between simulation and real world data. Deviations are detected for current and they are forecasted for future points in time and can express critical situations. By this method, patient specific differences in terms of physiological reactions are described, allowing early detection of critical states

Cross-layer system reliability assessment framework for hardware faults

System reliability estimation during early design phases facilitates informed decisions for the integration of effective protection mechanisms against different classes of hardware faults. When not all system abstraction layers (technology, circuit, microarchitecture, software) are factored in such an estimation model, the delivered reliability reports must be excessively pessimistic and thus lead to unacceptably expensive, over-designed systems. We propose a scalable, cross-layer methodology and supporting suite of tools for accurate but fast estimations of computing systems reliability. The backbone of the methodology is a component-based Bayesian model, which effectively calculates system reliability based on the masking probabilities of individual hardware and software components considering their complex interactions. Our detailed experimental evaluation for different technologies, microarchitectures, and benchmarks demonstrates that the proposed model delivers very accurate reliability estimations (FIT rates) compared to statistically significant but slow fault injection campaigns at the microarchitecture level.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Identifying dependability requirements for space software systems

Computer systems are increasingly used in space, whether in launch vehicles, satellites, ground support and payload systems. Software applications used in these systems have become more complex, mainly due to the high number of features to be met, thus contributing to a greater probability of hazards related to software faults. Therefore, it is fundamental that the specification activity of requirements have a decisive role in the effort of obtaining systems with high quality and safety standards. In critical systems like the embedded software of the Brazilian Satellite Launcher, ambiguity, non-completeness, and lack of good requirements can cause serious accidents with economic, material and human losses. One way to assure quality with safety, reliability and other dependability attributes may be the use of safety analysis techniques during the initial phases of the project in order to identify the most adequate dependability requirements to minimize possible fault or failure occurrences during the subsequent phases. This paper presents a structured software dependability requirements analysis process that uses system software requirement specifications and traditional safety analysis techniques. The main goal of the process is to help to identify a set of essential software dependability requirements which can be added to the software requirement previously specified for the system. The final results are more complete, consistent, and reliable specifications

Supporting group maintenance through prognostics-enhanced dynamic dependability prediction

Condition-based maintenance strategies adapt maintenance planning through the integration of online condition monitoring of assets. The accuracy and cost-effectiveness of these strategies can be improved by integrating prognostics predictions and grouping maintenance actions respectively. In complex industrial systems, however, effective condition-based maintenance is intricate. Such systems are comprised of repairable assets which can fail in different ways, with various effects, and typically governed by dynamics which include time-dependent and conditional events. In this context, system reliability prediction is complex and effective maintenance planning is virtually impossible prior to system deployment and hard even in the case of condition-based maintenance. Addressing these issues, this paper presents an online system maintenance method that takes into account the system dynamics. The method employs an online predictive diagnosis algorithm to distinguish between critical and non-critical assets. A prognostics-updated method for predicting the system health is then employed to yield well-informed, more accurate, condition-based suggestions for the maintenance of critical assets and for the group-based reactive repair of non-critical assets. The cost-effectiveness of the approach is discussed in a case study from the power industry