The performance of organ dysfunction scores for the early prediction and management of severity in acute pancreatitis: an exploratory phase diagnostic study

Objective: To evaluate contemporary organ dysfunction scoring systems for early prediction of severity in acute pancreatitis (AP). Methods: In a consecutive cohort of 181 patients with AP, organ dysfunction scores (logistic organ dysfunction system [LODS] score, Marshall organ dysfunction score, and sequential organ failure assessment score) were collected at 24 and 48 hours. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores were calculated on admission and 24 and 48 hours and C-reactive protein level measured at 48 hours. Patients who died or used critical care facilities (level 2/3) during admission were classed as severe. Results: Area under curve for APACHE II score at admission was 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.86). At 24 hours, area under curve for LODS, Marshall organ dysfunction system, sequential organ failure assessment, and APACHE II scores were 0.82, 0.80, 0.80, and 0.82, respectively. The LODS score at cutoff of 1 achieved 90% sensitivity and 69% specificity, corresponding to a positive predictive value of 38%. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score as a rule-out for selection of mild cases at a test threshold of 9 (scores <= 8 being selected) gives homogeneity of 91% and efficiency of 79%. Conclusions: Contemporary organ dysfunction scoring systems provides an objective guide to stratification of management, but there is no perfect score. All scores evaluated here perform equivalently at 24 hours. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II may have practical clinical value as a rule-out test

Enabling ubiquitous data mining in intensive care: Features selection and data pre-processing

Ubiquitous Data Mining and Intelligent Decision Support Systems are gaining interest by both computer science researchers and intensive care doctors. Previous work contributed with Data Mining models to predict organ failure and outcome of patients in order to support and guide the clinical decision based on the notion of critical events and the data collected from monitors in real-time. This paper addresses the study of the impact of the Modified Early Warning Score, a simple physiological score that may allow improvements in the quality and safety of management provided to surgical ward patients, in the prediction sensibility. The feature selection and data pre-processing are also detailed. Results show that for some variables associated to this score the impact is minimal.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT

Correlation of procalcitonin and C-reactive protein to inflammation, complications, and outcome during the intensive care unit course of multiple-trauma patients

BACKGROUND: A comparison of the amount of and the kinetics of induction of procalcitonin (PCT) with that of C-reactive protein (CRP) during various types of and severities of multiple trauma, and their relation to trauma-related complications, was performed. METHODS: Ninety adult trauma patients admitted to the intensive care unit of our tertiary care hospital were evaluated in a prospective case study. During the initial 24 hours after trauma the Injury Severity Score, the Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment score, and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score were evaluated. PCT, CRP, the sepsis criteria (American College of Chest Physicians/Society of Critical Care Medicine definitions), and the Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment score were measured at days 1–7, as well as at days 14 and 21, concluding the observation period with the 28-day survival. RESULTS: The induction of PCT and CRP varied in patients suffering from trauma. PCT increased only moderately in most patients and peaked at day 1–2 after trauma, the concentrations rapidly declining thereafter. CRP ubiquitously increased and its kinetics were much slower. Complications such as sepsis, infection, blood transfusion, prolonged intensive care unit treatment, and poor outcome were more frequent in patients with initially high PCT (>1 ng/ml), whereas increases of CRP showed no positive correlation. CONCLUSION: In patients with multiple trauma due to an accident, the PCT level provides more information than the CRP level since only moderate amounts of PCT are induced, and higher concentrations correlate with more severe trauma and a higher frequency of various complications, including sepsis and infection. Most importantly, the moderate trauma-related increase of PCT and the rapidly declining concentrations provide a baseline value near to the normal range at an earlier time frame than for CRP, thus allowing a faster and more valid prediction of sepsis during the early period after trauma

Feasibility of the modified sequential organ function assessment score in a resource-constrained setting: a prospective observational study.

BackgroundSub-Saharan Africa has a great burden of critical illness with limited health care resources. We evaluated the feasibility and utility of the modified Sequential Organ Function Assessment (mSOFA) score in assessing morbidity and mortality in the National Referral Hospital's intensive care unit (ICU) for one year.MethodsWe conducted a prospective, observational cohort study on patients above 12 years of age admitted to the ICU at Mulago Hospital (Kampala, Uganda). All SOFA scores were determined at admission and at 48 h. We modified the SOFA score by replacing the PaO2/FiO2 ratio with SPO2/FiO2. The primary outcome was ICU mortality.ResultsThis ICU cohort of 118 patients had a mean age of 37 years and an ICU mortality rate of 46.6%. Non-survivors had higher initial (7.7 SD 3.8 vs. 5.5 SD 3.3; p = 0.007), mean (8.1 SD 3.9 vs 4.7 SD 2.6; p &lt; 0.001) and highest mSOFA scores (9.4 SD 4.2 vs. 5.8 SD 3.2; p &lt; 0.001), with an increase of 1.0 (SD 3.1) mSOFA on average after 48 h when compared to survivors (p &lt; 0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for each mSOFA category was: initial-0.68, mean-0.76, highest-0.76 and delta mSOFA-0.74. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed no significant association between mSOFA scores and mortality.ConclusionOur results confirm that calculation of the mSOFA score is feasible for an ICU population in a resource-limited country. More data are needed to test for an association between mSOFA and mortality

Effect of a machine learning-based severe sepsis prediction algorithm on patient survival and hospital length of stay: a randomised clinical trial.

IntroductionSeveral methods have been developed to electronically monitor patients for severe sepsis, but few provide predictive capabilities to enable early intervention; furthermore, no severe sepsis prediction systems have been previously validated in a randomised study. We tested the use of a machine learning-based severe sepsis prediction system for reductions in average length of stay and in-hospital mortality rate.MethodsWe conducted a randomised controlled clinical trial at two medical-surgical intensive care units at the University of California, San Francisco Medical Center, evaluating the primary outcome of average length of stay, and secondary outcome of in-hospital mortality rate from December 2016 to February 2017. Adult patients (18+) admitted to participating units were eligible for this factorial, open-label study. Enrolled patients were assigned to a trial arm by a random allocation sequence. In the control group, only the current severe sepsis detector was used; in the experimental group, the machine learning algorithm (MLA) was also used. On receiving an alert, the care team evaluated the patient and initiated the severe sepsis bundle, if appropriate. Although participants were randomly assigned to a trial arm, group assignments were automatically revealed for any patients who received MLA alerts.ResultsOutcomes from 75 patients in the control and 67 patients in the experimental group were analysed. Average length of stay decreased from 13.0 days in the control to 10.3 days in the experimental group (p=0.042). In-hospital mortality decreased by 12.4 percentage points when using the MLA (p=0.018), a relative reduction of 58.0%. No adverse events were reported during this trial.ConclusionThe MLA was associated with improved patient outcomes. This is the first randomised controlled trial of a sepsis surveillance system to demonstrate statistically significant differences in length of stay and in-hospital mortality.Trial registrationNCT03015454

ST2 and Multimarker Testing in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

Most data on heart failure biomarkers have been derived from patient cohorts with chronic disease. However, risk prediction in patients admitted with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) remains a challenge. ADHF is not a single disease: it presents in various manners, and different causes may underlie ADHF, which may be reflected by different biomarkers. Soluble suppression of tumorigenicity 2 (ST2) has been shown to be a strong independent predictor of short-, mid-, and long-term outcome in ADHF. Furthermore, combining biomarkers may help further improve the prognostic power of ST2. The ProBNP Investigation of Dyspnea in the Emergency Department study showed that elevated plasma levels of ST2 together with elevated levels of 4 other biomarkers have clear incremental values to predict outcome in ADHF. The Multinational Observational Cohort on Acute Heart Failure study is an international collaborative network that recruited 5,306 patients hospitalized for ADHF that demonstrated that ST2 and midregional pro-adrenomedulin had independently strong value to predict 30-day and 1-year outcome in patients with ADHF. The Multinational Observational Cohort on Acute Heart Failure study also showed that C-reactive protein plus ST2 better classified risk in patients with ADHFs than ST2 alone. Combining biomarkers for risk prediction or risk stratification might have clinical and more importantly pathophysiological meaning

Proenkephalin A 119-159 (Penkid) Is an Early Biomarker of Septic Acute Kidney Injury: The Kidney in Sepsis and Septic Shock (Kid-SSS) Study

Introduction: Sepsis is the leading cause of acute kidney injury (AKI) in critically ill patients. The Kidney in Sepsis and Septic Shock (Kid-SSS) study evaluated the value of proenkephalin A 119-159 (penkid)—a sensitive biomarker of glomerular function, drawn within 24 hours upon intensive care unit (ICU) admission and analyzed using a chemiluminescence immunoassay—for kidney events in sepsis and septic shock. Methods: The Kid-SSS study was a substudy of Adrenomedullin and Outcome in Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock (AdrenOSS) (NCT02393781), a prospective, observational, multinational study including 583 patients admitted to the intensive care unit with sepsis or septic shock and a validation cohort of 525 patients from the French and euRopean Outcome reGistry in Intensive Care Units (FROG-ICU) study. The primary endpoint was major adverse kidney events (MAKEs) at day 7, composite of death, renal replacement therapy, and persistent renal dysfunction. The secondary endpoints included AKI, transient AKI, worsening renal function (WRF), and 28-day mortality. Results: Median age was 66 years (interquartile range 55–75), and 28-day mortality was 22% (95% confidence interval [CI] 19%−25%). Of the patients, 293 (50.3%) were in shock upon ICU admission. Penkid was significantly elevated in patients with MAKEs, persistent AKI, and WRF (median = 65 [IQR = 45–106] vs. 179 [114–242]; 53 [39–70] vs. 133 [79–196] pmol/l; and 70 [47–121] vs. 174 [93–242] pmol/l, all P &lt; 0.0001), also after adjustment for confounding factors (adjusted odds ratio = 3.3 [95% CI = 1.8–6.0], 3.9 [95% CI = 2.1–7.2], and 3.4 [95% CI = 1.9–6.2], all P &lt; 0.0001). Penkid increase preceded elevation of serum creatinine with WRF and was low in renal recovery. Conclusion: Admission penkid concentration was associated with MAKEs, AKI, and WRF in a timely manner in septic patients