Anwendungen maschinellen Lernens für datengetriebene Prävention auf Populationsebene

Healthcare costs are systematically rising, and current therapy-focused healthcare systems are not sustainable in the long run. While disease prevention is a viable instrument for reducing costs and suffering, it requires risk modeling to stratify populations, identify high- risk individuals and enable personalized interventions. In current clinical practice, however, systematic risk stratification is limited: on the one hand, for the vast majority of endpoints, no risk models exist. On the other hand, available models focus on predicting a single disease at a time, rendering predictor collection burdensome. At the same time, the den- sity of individual patient data is constantly increasing. Especially complex data modalities, such as -omics measurements or images, may contain systemic information on future health trajectories relevant for multiple endpoints simultaneously. However, to date, this data is inaccessible for risk modeling as no dedicated methods exist to extract clinically relevant information. This study built on recent advances in machine learning to investigate the ap- plicability of four distinct data modalities not yet leveraged for risk modeling in primary prevention. For each data modality, a neural network-based survival model was developed to extract predictive information, scrutinize performance gains over commonly collected covariates, and pinpoint potential clinical utility. Notably, the developed methodology was able to integrate polygenic risk scores for cardiovascular prevention, outperforming existing approaches and identifying benefiting subpopulations. Investigating NMR metabolomics, the developed methodology allowed the prediction of future disease onset for many common diseases at once, indicating potential applicability as a drop-in replacement for commonly collected covariates. Extending the methodology to phenome-wide risk modeling, elec- tronic health records were found to be a general source of predictive information with high systemic relevance for thousands of endpoints. Assessing retinal fundus photographs, the developed methodology identified diseases where retinal information most impacted health trajectories. In summary, the results demonstrate the capability of neural survival models to integrate complex data modalities for multi-disease risk modeling in primary prevention and illustrate the tremendous potential of machine learning models to disrupt medical practice toward data-driven prevention at population scale.Die Kosten im Gesundheitswesen steigen systematisch und derzeitige therapieorientierte Gesundheitssysteme sind nicht nachhaltig. Angesichts vieler verhinderbarer Krankheiten stellt die Prävention ein veritables Instrument zur Verringerung von Kosten und Leiden dar. Risikostratifizierung ist die grundlegende Voraussetzung für ein präventionszentri- ertes Gesundheitswesen um Personen mit hohem Risiko zu identifizieren und Maßnah- men einzuleiten. Heute ist eine systematische Risikostratifizierung jedoch nur begrenzt möglich, da für die meisten Krankheiten keine Risikomodelle existieren und sich verfüg- bare Modelle auf einzelne Krankheiten beschränken. Weil für deren Berechnung jeweils spezielle Sets an Prädiktoren zu erheben sind werden in Praxis oft nur wenige Modelle angewandt. Gleichzeitig versprechen komplexe Datenmodalitäten, wie Bilder oder -omics- Messungen, systemische Informationen über zukünftige Gesundheitsverläufe, mit poten- tieller Relevanz für viele Endpunkte gleichzeitig. Da es an dedizierten Methoden zur Ex- traktion klinisch relevanter Informationen fehlt, sind diese Daten jedoch für die Risikomod- ellierung unzugänglich, und ihr Potenzial blieb bislang unbewertet. Diese Studie nutzt ma- chinelles Lernen, um die Anwendbarkeit von vier Datenmodalitäten in der Primärpräven- tion zu untersuchen: polygene Risikoscores für die kardiovaskuläre Prävention, NMR Meta- bolomicsdaten, elektronische Gesundheitsakten und Netzhautfundusfotos. Pro Datenmodal- ität wurde ein neuronales Risikomodell entwickelt, um relevante Informationen zu extra- hieren, additive Information gegenüber üblicherweise erfassten Kovariaten zu quantifizieren und den potenziellen klinischen Nutzen der Datenmodalität zu ermitteln. Die entwickelte Me-thodik konnte polygene Risikoscores für die kardiovaskuläre Prävention integrieren. Im Falle der NMR-Metabolomik erschloss die entwickelte Methodik wertvolle Informa- tionen über den zukünftigen Ausbruch von Krankheiten. Unter Einsatz einer phänomen- weiten Risikomodellierung erwiesen sich elektronische Gesundheitsakten als Quelle prädik- tiver Information mit hoher systemischer Relevanz. Bei der Analyse von Fundusfotografien der Netzhaut wurden Krankheiten identifiziert für deren Vorhersage Netzhautinformationen genutzt werden könnten. Zusammengefasst zeigten die Ergebnisse das Potential neuronaler Risikomodelle die medizinische Praxis in Richtung einer datengesteuerten, präventionsori- entierten Medizin zu verändern

Smoking and Second Hand Smoking in Adolescents with Chronic Kidney Disease: A Report from the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKiD) Cohort Study

The goal of this study was to determine the prevalence of smoking and second hand smoking [SHS] in adolescents with CKD and their relationship to baseline parameters at enrollment in the CKiD, observational cohort study of 600 children (aged 1-16 yrs) with Schwartz estimated GFR of 30-90 ml/min/1.73m2. 239 adolescents had self-report survey data on smoking and SHS exposure: 21 [9%] subjects had “ever” smoked a cigarette. Among them, 4 were current and 17 were former smokers. Hypertension was more prevalent in those that had “ever” smoked a cigarette (42%) compared to non-smokers (9%), p\u3c0.01. Among 218 non-smokers, 130 (59%) were male, 142 (65%) were Caucasian; 60 (28%) reported SHS exposure compared to 158 (72%) with no exposure. Non-smoker adolescents with SHS exposure were compared to those without SHS exposure. There was no racial, age, or gender differences between both groups. Baseline creatinine, diastolic hypertension, C reactive protein, lipid profile, GFR and hemoglobin were not statistically different. Significantly higher protein to creatinine ratio (0.90 vs. 0.53, p\u3c0.01) was observed in those exposed to SHS compared to those not exposed. Exposed adolescents were heavier than non-exposed adolescents (85th percentile vs. 55th percentile for BMI, p\u3c 0.01). Uncontrolled casual systolic hypertension was twice as prevalent among those exposed to SHS (16%) compared to those not exposed to SHS (7%), though the difference was not statistically significant (p= 0.07). Adjusted multivariate regression analysis [OR (95% CI)] showed that increased protein to creatinine ratio [1.34 (1.03, 1.75)] and higher BMI [1.14 (1.02, 1.29)] were independently associated with exposure to SHS among non-smoker adolescents. These results reveal that among adolescents with CKD, cigarette use is low and SHS is highly prevalent. The association of smoking with hypertension and SHS with increased proteinuria suggests a possible role of these factors in CKD progression and cardiovascular outcomes

Aerospace Medicine and Biology - A continuing bibliography, February, 1967

Continuing bibliography and abstracts on aerospace medicine and biology - bibliography and abstract