Prediction of monthly Arctic sea ice concentrations using satellite and reanalysis data based on convolutional neural networks

Changes in Arctic sea ice affect atmospheric circulation, ocean current, and polar ecosystems. There have been unprecedented decreases in the amount of Arctic sea ice due to global warming. In this study, a novel 1-month sea ice concentration (SIC) prediction model is proposed, with eight predictors using a deep-learning approach, convolutional neural networks (CNNs). This monthly SIC prediction model based on CNNs is shown to perform better predictions (mean absolute error - MAE - of 2.28 %, anomaly correlation coefficient - ACC - of 0.98, root-mean-square error - RMSE - of 5.76 %, normalized RMSE - nRMSE - of 16.15 %, and NSE - Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency - of 0.97) than a random-forest-based (RF-based) model (MAE of 2.45 %, ACC of 0.98, RMSE of 6.61 %, nRMSE of 18.64 %, and NSE of 0.96) and the persistence model based on the monthly trend (MAE of 4.31 %, ACC of 0.95, RMSE of 10.54 %, nRMSE of 29.17 %, and NSE of 0.89) through hindcast validations. The spatio-temporal analysis also confirmed the superiority of the CNN model. The CNN model showed good SIC prediction results in extreme cases that recorded unforeseen sea ice plummets in 2007 and 2012 with RMSEs of less than 5.0 %. This study also examined the importance of the input variables through a sensitivity analysis. In both the CNN and RF models, the variables of past SICs were identified as the most sensitive factor in predicting SICs. For both models, the SIC-related variables generally contributed more to predict SICs over ice-covered areas, while other meteorological and oceanographic variables were more sensitive to the prediction of SICs in marginal ice zones. The proposed 1-month SIC prediction model provides valuable information which can be used in various applications, such as Arctic shipping-route planning, management of the fishing industry, and long-term sea ice forecasting and dynamics

Physical Knowledge Enhanced Deep Neural Network for Sea Surface Temperature Prediction

Traditionally, numerical models have been deployed in oceanography studies to simulate ocean dynamics by representing physical equations. However, many factors pertaining to ocean dynamics seem to be ill-defined. We argue that transferring physical knowledge from observed data could further improve the accuracy of numerical models when predicting Sea Surface Temperature (SST). Recently, the advances in earth observation technologies have yielded a monumental growth of data. Consequently, it is imperative to explore ways in which to improve and supplement numerical models utilizing the ever-increasing amounts of historical observational data. To this end, we introduce a method for SST prediction that transfers physical knowledge from historical observations to numerical models. Specifically, we use a combination of an encoder and a generative adversarial network (GAN) to capture physical knowledge from the observed data. The numerical model data is then fed into the pre-trained model to generate physics-enhanced data, which can then be used for SST prediction. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method considerably enhances SST prediction performance when compared to several state-of-the-art baselines.Comment: IEEE TGRS 202

Spatial-Temporal Data Mining for Ocean Science: Data, Methodologies, and Opportunities

With the increasing amount of spatial-temporal~(ST) ocean data, numerous spatial-temporal data mining (STDM) studies have been conducted to address various oceanic issues, e.g., climate forecasting and disaster warning. Compared with typical ST data (e.g., traffic data), ST ocean data is more complicated with some unique characteristics, e.g., diverse regionality and high sparsity. These characteristics make it difficult to design and train STDM models. Unfortunately, an overview of these studies is still missing, hindering computer scientists to identify the research issues in ocean while discouraging researchers in ocean science from applying advanced STDM techniques. To remedy this situation, we provide a comprehensive survey to summarize existing STDM studies in ocean. Concretely, we first summarize the widely-used ST ocean datasets and identify their unique characteristics. Then, typical ST ocean data quality enhancement techniques are discussed. Next, we classify existing STDM studies for ocean into four types of tasks, i.e., prediction, event detection, pattern mining, and anomaly detection, and elaborate the techniques for these tasks. Finally, promising research opportunities are highlighted. This survey will help scientists from the fields of both computer science and ocean science have a better understanding of the fundamental concepts, key techniques, and open challenges of STDM in ocean

Characterizing Evaporation Ducts Within the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer Using Artificial Neural Networks

We apply a multilayer perceptron machine learning (ML) regression approach to infer electromagnetic (EM) duct heights within the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) using sparsely sampled EM propagation data obtained within a bistatic context. This paper explains the rationale behind the selection of the ML network architecture, along with other model hyperparameters, in an effort to demystify the process of arriving at a useful ML model. The resulting speed of our ML predictions of EM duct heights, using sparse data measurements within MABL, indicates the suitability of the proposed method for real-time applications.Comment: 13 pages, 7 figure

Forecasting of Medium-term Rainfall Using Artificial Neural Networks: Case Studies from Eastern Australia

The advent of machine learning, of which artificial neural networks (ANN) are a component, has provided an opportunity for improved rainfall forecasts, which is of value for water infrastructure management, agriculture, mining and other industries. In this chapter, ANNs are shown to provide more skillful monthly rainfall forecasts for locations in south-eastern Queensland, Australia, for lead-times of 3–12 months. The skill of the forecasts from the ANNs is highest when the models are individually optimized for each month, and when longer-duration series are used as input. The ANN technique has application where there is temperature and rainfall data extending back at least 50 years. Such datasets exist for much of Europe and North America, though a review of the available literature indicates most research into the application of ANN has focused on China, India and Australia

An Integrative Remote Sensing Application of Stacked Autoencoder for Atmospheric Correction and Cyanobacteria Estimation Using Hyperspectral Imagery

Hyperspectral image sensing can be used to effectively detect the distribution of harmful cyanobacteria. To accomplish this, physical- and/or model-based simulations have been conducted to perform an atmospheric correction (AC) and an estimation of pigments, including phycocyanin (PC) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), in cyanobacteria. However, such simulations were undesirable in certain cases, due to the difficulty of representing dynamically changing aerosol and water vapor in the atmosphere and the optical complexity of inland water. Thus, this study was focused on the development of a deep neural network model for AC and cyanobacteria estimation, without considering the physical formulation. The stacked autoencoder (SAE) network was adopted for the feature extraction and dimensionality reduction of hyperspectral imagery. The artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR) were sequentially applied to achieve AC and estimate cyanobacteria concentrations (i.e., SAE-ANN and SAE-SVR). Further, the ANN and SVR models without SAE were compared with SAE-ANN and SAE-SVR models for the performance evaluations. In terms of AC performance, both SAE-ANN and SAE-SVR displayed reasonable accuracy with the Nash???Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) > 0.7. For PC and Chl-a estimation, the SAE-ANN model showed the best performance, by yielding NSE values > 0.79 and > 0.77, respectively. SAE, with fine tuning operators, improved the accuracy of the original ANN and SVR estimations, in terms of both AC and cyanobacteria estimation. This is primarily attributed to the high-level feature extraction of SAE, which can represent the spatial features of cyanobacteria. Therefore, this study demonstrated that the deep neural network has a strong potential to realize an integrative remote sensing application

PREDICTION OF CROP YIELDS ACROSS FOUR CLIMATE ZONES IN GERMANY: AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK APPROACH

This paper shows the ability of artificial neural network technology to be used for the approximation and prediction of crop yields at rural district and federal state scales in different climate zones based on reported daily weather data. The method may later be used to construct regional time series of agricultural output under climate change, based on the highly resolved output of the global circulation models and regional models. Three 30-year combined historical data sets of rural district yields (oats, spring barley and silage maize), daily temperatures (mean, maximum, dewpoint) and precipitation were constructed. They were used with artificial neural network technology to investigate, simulate and predict historical time series of crop yields in four climate zones of Germany. Final neural networks, trained with data sets of three climate zones and tested against an independent northern zone, have high predictive power (0.83global change, agriculture, artificial neural networks, yield prediction

Sustainable marine ecosystems: deep learning for water quality assessment and forecasting

An appropriate management of the available resources within oceans and coastal regions is vital to guarantee their sustainable development and preservation, where water quality is a key element. Leveraging on a combination of cross-disciplinary technologies including Remote Sensing (RS), Internet of Things (IoT), Big Data, cloud computing, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) is essential to attain this aim. In this paper, we review methodologies and technologies for water quality assessment that contribute to a sustainable management of marine environments. Specifically, we focus on Deep Leaning (DL) strategies for water quality estimation and forecasting. The analyzed literature is classified depending on the type of task, scenario and architecture. Moreover, several applications including coastal management and aquaculture are surveyed. Finally, we discuss open issues still to be addressed and potential research lines where transfer learning, knowledge fusion, reinforcement learning, edge computing and decision-making policies are expected to be the main involved agents.Postprint (published version