Designing a Novel Model for Stock Price Prediction Using an Integrated Multi-Stage Structure: The Case of the Bombay Stock Exchange

Stock price prediction is considered a strategic and challenging issue in the stock markets. Considering the complexity of stock market data and price fluctuations, the improvement of effective approaches for stock price prediction is a crucial and essential task. Therefore, in this study, a new model based on “Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Genetic Algorithm (GA)” is employed to predict stock price accurately. ANFIS has been utilized to predict stock price trends more precisely. PSO executes towards developing the vector, and GA has been utilized to adjust the decision vectors employing genetic operators. The stock price data of top companies of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) from 2010 to 2020 are employed to analyze the model functionality. Experimental outcomes demonstrated that the average functionality of our model (77.62%) was achieved noticeably better than other methods. The findings verified that the ANFIS-PSO-GA model is an efficient tool in stock price prediction which can be applied in the different financial markets, especially the stock market

Financial Forecasting Using Evolutionary Computational Techniques

Financial forecasting or specially stock market prediction is one of the hottest field of research lately due to its commercial applications owing to high stakes and the kinds of attractive benefits that it has to offer. In this project we have analyzed various evolutionary computation algorithms for forecasting of financial data. The financial data has been taken from a large database and has been based on the stock prices in leading stock exchanges .We have based our models on data taken from Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), S&P500 (Standard and Poor’s) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). We have designed three models and compared those using historical data from the three stock exchanges. The models used were based on: 1. Radial Basis Function parameters updated by Particle swarm optimization. 2. Radial Basis Function parameters updated by Least Mean Square Algorithm. 3. FLANN parameters updated by Particle Swarm optimization. The raw input for the experiment is the historical daily open, close, high, low and volume of the concerned index. However the actual input to the model was the parameters derived from these data. The results of the experiment have been depicted with the aid of suitable curves where a comparative analysis of the various models is done on the basis on various parameters including error convergence and the Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE). Key Words: Radial Basis Functions, FLANN, PSO, LM

Prediction of Stock Market Index Using a Hybrid Technique of Artificial Neural Networks and Particle Swarm Optimization

In this paper we examine the ability of Artificial Neural Network methods (ANN) for predicting the stock market index. We first conduct an ANN analysis and then optimize the ANN model using Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm (PSO) to improve the prediction accuracy. In terms of data, we use NASDAQ index which is one of the most widely followed indices in the United States. Empirical results show that by determining the optimal set of biases and weights using PSO, we can augment the accuracy of the ANN model for this stock market data set

Designing a Novel Model for Stock Price Prediction Using an Integrated Multi-Stage Structure: The Case of the Bombay Stock Exchange

Keywords: Stock Price Prediction, Technical Analysis, ANFIS, PSO, GA Stock price prediction is considered a strategic and challenging issue in the stock markets. Considering the complexity of stock market data and price fluctuations, the improvement of effective approaches for stock price prediction is a crucial and essential task. Therefore, in this study, a new model based on “Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Genetic Algorithm (GA)” is employed to predict stock price accurately. ANFIS has been utilized to predict stock price trends more precisely. PSO executes towards developing the vector, and GA has been utilized to adjust the decision vectors employing genetic operators. The stock price data of top companies of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) from 2010 to 2020 are employed to analyze the model functionality. Experimental outcomes demonstrated that the average functionality of our model (77.62%) was achieved noticeably better than other methods. The findings verified that the ANFIS-PSO-GA model is an efficient tool in stock price prediction which can be applied in the different financial markets, especially the stock market

Prediction of earnings per share for industry

Prediction of Earnings Per Share (EPS) is the fundamental problem in finance industry. Various Data Mining technologies have been widely used in computational finance. This research work aims to predict the future EPS with previous values through the use of data mining technologies, thus to provide decision makers a reference or evidence for their economic strategies and business activity. We created three models LR, RBF and MLP for the regression problem. Our experiments with these models were carried out on the real datasets provided by a software company. The performance assessment was based on Correlation Coefficient and Root Mean Squared Error. These algorithms were validated with the data of six different companies. Some differences between the models have been observed. In most cases, Linear Regression and Multilayer Perceptron are effectively capable of predicting the future EPS. But for the high nonlinear data, MLP gives better performance

A Robust Regression-Based Stock Exchange Forecasting and Determination of Correlation between Stock Markets

Knowledge-based decision support systems for financial management are an important part of investment plans. Investors are avoiding investing in traditional investment areas such as banks due to low return on investment. The stock exchange is one of the major areas for investment presently. Various non-linear and complex factors affect the stock exchange. A robust stock exchange forecasting system remains an important need. From this line of research, we evaluate the performance of a regression-based model to check the robustness over large datasets. We also evaluate the effect of top stock exchange markets on each other. We evaluate our proposed model on the top 4 stock exchanges—New York, London, NASDAQ and Karachi stock exchange. We also evaluate our model on the top 3 companies—Apple, Microsoft, and Google. A huge (Big Data) historical data is gathered from Yahoo finance consisting of 20 years. Such huge data creates a Big Data problem. The performance of our system is evaluated on a 1-step, 6-step, and 12-step forecast. The experiments show that the proposed system produces excellent results. The results are presented in terms of Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)

Neural networks in financial trading

In this study, we generate 50 Multi-layer Perceptons, 50 Radial Basis Functions, 50 Higher Order Neural Networks and 50 Recurrent Neural Network and we explore their utility in forecasting and trading the DJIA, NASDAQ 100 and the NIKKEI 225 stock indices. The statistical significance of the forecasts is examined through the False Discovery Ratio of Bajgrowicz and Scaillet (J Financ Econ 106(3):473–491, 2012). Two financial everages, based on the levels of financial stress and the financial volatility respectively, are also applied. In terms of the results, we note that RNN have the higher percentage of significant models and present the stronger profitability compared to their Neural Network counterparts. The financial leverages doubles the trading performance of our models