Customer purchase behavior prediction in E-commerce: a conceptual framework and research agenda

Digital retailers are experiencing an increasing number of transactions coming from their consumers online, a consequence of the convenience in buying goods via E-commerce platforms. Such interactions compose complex behavioral patterns which can be analyzed through predictive analytics to enable businesses to understand consumer needs. In this abundance of big data and possible tools to analyze them, a systematic review of the literature is missing. Therefore, this paper presents a systematic literature review of recent research dealing with customer purchase prediction in the E-commerce context. The main contributions are a novel analytical framework and a research agenda in the field. The framework reveals three main tasks in this review, namely, the prediction of customer intents, buying sessions, and purchase decisions. Those are followed by their employed predictive methodologies and are analyzed from three perspectives. Finally, the research agenda provides major existing issues for further research in the field of purchase behavior prediction online

The Price of Privacy - An Evaluation of the Economic Value of Collecting Clickstream Data

The analysis of clickstream data facilitates the understanding and prediction of customer behavior in e-commerce. Companies can leverage such data to increase revenue. For customers and website users, on the other hand, the collection of behavioral data entails privacy invasion. The objective of the paper is to shed light on the trade-off between privacy and the business value of cus- tomer information. To that end, the authors review approaches to convert clickstream data into behavioral traits, which we call clickstream features, and propose a categorization of these features according to the potential threat they pose to user privacy. The authors then examine the extent to which different categories of clickstream features facilitate predictions of online user shopping pat- terns and approximate the marginal utility of using more privacy adverse information in behavioral prediction models. Thus, the paper links the literature on user privacy to that on e-commerce analytics and takes a step toward an economic analysis of privacy costs and benefits. In par- ticular, the results of empirical experimentation with large real-world e-commerce data suggest that the inclusion of short-term customer behavior based on session-related information leads to large gains in predictive accuracy and business performance, while storing and aggregating usage behavior over longer horizons has comparably less value

Dynamic Prediction of retail Website Visitors\u27 Intentions

This paper presents a model for identifying general intentions of consumers visiting a retail website. When visiting a transactional website, consumers have various intentions such as browsing (i.e., no purchase intention), purchasing a product in the near future, or purchasing a particular product during their current visit. By predicting these intentions early in the visit, online merchants could personalize their offer to better fulfill the needs of consumers. We propose a simple model which enables classifying visitors according to their intentions after only four traversals (clicks). The model is based solely on navigation patterns which can be automatically extracted from clickstream. The results are presented and extensions of the model are proposed

Recommending Best Products from E-commerce Purchase History and User Click Behavior Data

E-commerce collaborative filtering recommendation systems, the main input data of user-item rating matrix is a binary purchase data showing only what items a user has purchased recently. This matrix is usually sparse and does not provide a lot of information about customer purchases or product clickstream behavior (eg., clicks, basket placement, and purchase) history, which possibly can improve product recommendations accuracy. Existing recommendation systems in E-commerce with clickstream data include those referred in this thesis as Kim05Rec, Kim11Rec, and Chen13Rec. Kim05Rec forms a decision tree on click behavior attributes such as search type and visit times, discovers the possibility of a user putting products into the basket and uses the information to enrich the user-item rating matrix. If a user clicked a product, Kim11Rec then finds the associated products for it in three stages such as click, basket and purchase, uses the lift value from these stages and calculates a score, it then uses the score to make recommendations. Chen13Rec measures the similarity of users on their category click patterns such as click sequences, click times and visit duration; it then can use the similarity to enhance the collaborative filtering algorithm. However, the similarity between click sequences in sessions can apply to the purchases to some extent, especially for sessions without purchases, this will be able to predict purchases for those session users. But the existing systems have not integrated it, or the historical purchases which shows more than whether or not a user has purchased a product before. In this thesis, we propose HPCRec (Historical Purchase with Clickstream based Recommendation System) to enrich the ratings matrix from both quantity and quality aspects. HPCRec firstly forms a normalized rating-matrix with higher quality ratings from historical purchases, then mines consequential bond between clicks and purchases with weighted frequencies where the weights are similarities between sessions, but rating quantity is better by integrating this information. The experimental results show that our approach HPCRec is more accurate than these existing methods, HPCRec is also capable of handling infrequent cases whereas the existing methods can not

Dynamic modeling of web purchase behavior and e-mailing impact by Petri net

In this article, the authors introduce Petri nets to model the dynamics of web site visits and purchase behaviors in the case of wish list systems. They describe web site activities and their transition with probability distributions and model the sequential impact of influential factors through links that better explain web purchase behavior dynamics. The basic model, which analyzes site connections and purchases to explain visit and purchase behavior, performs better than a classical negative binomial regression model. To demonstrate its flexibility, the authors extend the wish list Petri net model to measure the impact of e-mailing intervals on visit frequency and purchase.internet; wish list; e-mail; Petri net; dynamic model

Prediction is very hard, especially about conversion. Predicting user purchases from clickstream data in fashion e-commerce

Knowing if a user is a buyer vs window shopper solely based on clickstream data is of crucial importance for ecommerce platforms seeking to implement real-time accurate NBA (next best action) policies. However, due to the low frequency of conversion events and the noisiness of browsing data, classifying user sessions is very challenging. In this paper, we address the clickstream classification problem in the fashion industry and present three major contributions to the burgeoning field of AI in fashion: first, we collected, normalized and prepared a novel dataset of live shopping sessions from a major European e-commerce fashion website; second, we use the dataset to test in a controlled environment strong baselines and SOTA models from the literature; finally, we propose a new discriminative neural model that outperforms neural architectures recently proposed at Rakuten labs