Predicting epidemic risk from past temporal contact data

Understanding how epidemics spread in a system is a crucial step to prevent and control outbreaks, with broad implications on the system's functioning, health, and associated costs. This can be achieved by identifying the elements at higher risk of infection and implementing targeted surveillance and control measures. One important ingredient to consider is the pattern of disease-transmission contacts among the elements, however lack of data or delays in providing updated records may hinder its use, especially for time-varying patterns. Here we explore to what extent it is possible to use past temporal data of a system's pattern of contacts to predict the risk of infection of its elements during an emerging outbreak, in absence of updated data. We focus on two real-world temporal systems; a livestock displacements trade network among animal holdings, and a network of sexual encounters in high-end prostitution. We define the node's loyalty as a local measure of its tendency to maintain contacts with the same elements over time, and uncover important non-trivial correlations with the node's epidemic risk. We show that a risk assessment analysis incorporating this knowledge and based on past structural and temporal pattern properties provides accurate predictions for both systems. Its generalizability is tested by introducing a theoretical model for generating synthetic temporal networks. High accuracy of our predictions is recovered across different settings, while the amount of possible predictions is system-specific. The proposed method can provide crucial information for the setup of targeted intervention strategies.Comment: 24 pages, 5 figures + SI (18 pages, 15 figures

Hot-spot analysis for drug discovery targeting protein-protein interactions

Introduction: Protein-protein interactions are important for biological processes and pathological situations, and are attractive targets for drug discovery. However, rational drug design targeting protein-protein interactions is still highly challenging. Hot-spot residues are seen as the best option to target such interactions, but their identification requires detailed structural and energetic characterization, which is only available for a tiny fraction of protein interactions. Areas covered: In this review, the authors cover a variety of computational methods that have been reported for the energetic analysis of protein-protein interfaces in search of hot-spots, and the structural modeling of protein-protein complexes by docking. This can help to rationalize the discovery of small-molecule inhibitors of protein-protein interfaces of therapeutic interest. Computational analysis and docking can help to locate the interface, molecular dynamics can be used to find suitable cavities, and hot-spot predictions can focus the search for inhibitors of protein-protein interactions. Expert opinion: A major difficulty for applying rational drug design methods to protein-protein interactions is that in the majority of cases the complex structure is not available. Fortunately, computational docking can complement experimental data. An interesting aspect to explore in the future is the integration of these strategies for targeting PPIs with large-scale mutational analysis.This work has been funded by grants BIO2016-79930-R and SEV-2015-0493 from the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness, and grant EFA086/15 from EU Interreg V POCTEFA. M Rosell is supported by an FPI fellowship from the Severo Ochoa program. The authors are grateful for the support of the the Joint BSC-CRG-IRB Programme in Computational Biology.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Predicting epidemic evolution on contact networks from partial observations

The massive employment of computational models in network epidemiology calls for the development of improved inference methods for epidemic forecast. For simple compartment models, such as the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, Belief Propagation was proved to be a reliable and efficient method to identify the origin of an observed epidemics. Here we show that the same method can be applied to predict the future evolution of an epidemic outbreak from partial observations at the early stage of the dynamics. The results obtained using Belief Propagation are compared with Monte Carlo direct sampling in the case of SIR model on random (regular and power-law) graphs for different observation methods and on an example of real-world contact network. Belief Propagation gives in general a better prediction that direct sampling, although the quality of the prediction depends on the quantity under study (e.g. marginals of individual states, epidemic size, extinction-time distribution) and on the actual number of observed nodes that are infected before the observation time

Structural Prediction of Protein–Protein Interactions by Docking: Application to Biomedical Problems

A huge amount of genetic information is available thanks to the recent advances in sequencing technologies and the larger computational capabilities, but the interpretation of such genetic data at phenotypic level remains elusive. One of the reasons is that proteins are not acting alone, but are specifically interacting with other proteins and biomolecules, forming intricate interaction networks that are essential for the majority of cell processes and pathological conditions. Thus, characterizing such interaction networks is an important step in understanding how information flows from gene to phenotype. Indeed, structural characterization of protein–protein interactions at atomic resolution has many applications in biomedicine, from diagnosis and vaccine design, to drug discovery. However, despite the advances of experimental structural determination, the number of interactions for which there is available structural data is still very small. In this context, a complementary approach is computational modeling of protein interactions by docking, which is usually composed of two major phases: (i) sampling of the possible binding modes between the interacting molecules and (ii) scoring for the identification of the correct orientations. In addition, prediction of interface and hot-spot residues is very useful in order to guide and interpret mutagenesis experiments, as well as to understand functional and mechanistic aspects of the interaction. Computational docking is already being applied to specific biomedical problems within the context of personalized medicine, for instance, helping to interpret pathological mutations involved in protein–protein interactions, or providing modeled structural data for drug discovery targeting protein–protein interactions.Spanish Ministry of Economy grant number BIO2016-79960-R; D.B.B. is supported by a predoctoral fellowship from CONACyT; M.R. is supported by an FPI fellowship from the Severo Ochoa program. We are grateful to the Joint BSC-CRG-IRB Programme in Computational Biology.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Social encounter networks : collective properties and disease transmission

A fundamental challenge of modern infectious disease epidemiology is to quantify the networks of social and physical contacts through which transmission can occur. Understanding the collective properties of these interactions is critical for both accurate prediction of the spread of infection and determining optimal control measures. However, even the basic properties of such networks are poorly quantified, forcing predictions to be made based on strong assumptions concerning network structure. Here, we report on the results of a large-scale survey of social encounters mainly conducted in Great Britain. First, we characterize the distribution of contacts, which possesses a lognormal body and a power-law tail with an exponent of −2.45; we provide a plausible mechanistic model that captures this form. Analysis of the high level of local clustering of contacts reveals additional structure within the network, implying that social contacts are degree assortative. Finally, we describe the epidemiological implications of this local network structure: these contradict the usual predictions from networks with heavy-tailed degree distributions and contain public-health messages about control. Our findings help us to determine the types of realistic network structure that should be assumed in future population level studies of infection transmission, leading to better interpretations of epidemiological data and more appropriate policy decisions