Prediction of construction litigation outcome using a split-step PSO algorithm

2006-2007 > Academic research: refereed > Publication in refereed journalAccepted ManuscriptPublishe

A split-step PSO algorithm in predicting construction litigation outcome

Series: Lecture notes in computer science2005-2006 > Academic research: refereed > Publication in refereed journalAccepted ManuscriptPublishe

Application of a PSO-based neural network in analysis of outcomes of construction claims

Author name used in this publication: K. W. Chau2007-2008 > Academic research: refereed > Publication in refereed journalAccepted ManuscriptPublishe

A Split-Step PSO Algorithm in Predicting Construction Litigation Outcome

Abstract. Owing to the highly complicated nature and the escalating cost involved in construction claims, it is highly desirable for the parties to a dispute to know with some certainty how the case would be resolved if it were taken to court. The use of artificial neural networks can be a cost-effective technique to help to predict the outcome of construction claims, on the basis of characteristics of cases and the corresponding past court decisions. This paper presents the application of a split-step particle swarm optimization (PSO) model for training perceptrons to predict the outcome of construction claims in Hong Kong. The advantages of global search capability of PSO algorithm in the first step and local fast convergence of Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm in the second step are combined together. The results demonstrate that, when compared with the benchmark backward propagation algorithm and the conventional PSO algorithm, it attains a higher accuracy in a much shorter time

A deep learning framework for contingent liabilities risk management : predicting Brazilian labor court decisions

Estimar o resultado de um processo em litígio é crucial para muitas organizações. Uma aplicação específica são os "Passivos Contingenciais", que se referem a passivos que podem ou não ocorrer dependendo do resultado de um processo judicial em litígio. A metodologia tradicional para estimar essa probabilidade baseia-se na opinião de um advogado quem determina a possibilidade de um processo judicial ser perdido a partir de uma avaliação quantitativa. Esta tese apresenta a um modelo matemático baseado numa arquitetura de Deep Learning cujo objetivo é estimar a probabilidade de ganho ou perda de um processo de litígio, principalmente para ser utilizada na estimação de Passivos Contingenciais. A arquitetura, diferentemente do método tradicional, oferece um maior grau de confiança ao prever o resultado de um processo legal em termos de probabilidade e com um tempo de processamento de segundos. Além do resultado primário, a arquitetura estima uma amostra dos casos mais semelhantes ao processo estimado, que servem de apoio para a realização de estratégias de litígio. Nossa arquitetura foi testada em duas bases de dados de processos legais: (1) o Tribunal Europeu de Direitos Humanos (ECHR) e (2) o 4º Tribunal Regional do Trabalho brasileiro (4TRT). Ela estimou de acordo com nosso conhecimento, o melhor desempenho já publicado (precisão = 0,906) na base de dados da ECHR, uma coleção amplamente utilizada de processos legais, e é o primeiro trabalho a aplicar essa metodologia em um tribunal de trabalho brasileiro. Os resultados mostram que a arquitetura é uma alternativa adequada a ser utilizada contra o método tradicional de estimação do desfecho de um processo em litígio realizado por advogados. Finalmente, validamos nossos resultados com especialistas que confirmaram as possibilidades promissoras da arquitetura. Assim, nos incentivamos os académicos a continuar desenvolvendo pesquisas sobre modelagem matemática na área jurídica, pois é um tema emergente com um futuro promissor e aos usuários a utilizar ferramentas baseadas como a desenvolvida em nosso trabalho, pois fornecem vantagens substanciais em termos de precisão e velocidade sobre os métodos convencionais.Estimating the likely outcome of a litigation process is crucial for many organizations. A specific application is the “Contingents Liabilities,” which refers to liabilities that may or may not occur depending on the result of a pending litigation process (lawsuit). The traditional methodology for estimating this likelihood is based on the opinion from the lawyer’s experience which is based on a qualitative appreciation. This dissertation presents a mathematical modeling framework based on a Deep Learning architecture that estimates the probability outcome of a litigation process (accepted & not accepted) with a particular use on Contingent Liabilities. The framework offers a degree of confidence by describing how likely an event will occur in terms of probability and provides results in seconds. Besides the primary outcome, it offers a sample of the most similar cases to the estimated lawsuit that serve as support to perform litigation strategies. We tested our framework in two litigation process databases from: (1) the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) and (2) the Brazilian 4th regional labor court. Our framework achieved to our knowledge the best-published performance (precision = 0.906) on the ECHR database, a widely used collection of litigation processes, and it is the first to be applied in a Brazilian labor court. Results show that the framework is a suitable alternative to be used against the traditional method of estimating the verdict outcome from a pending litigation performed by lawyers. Finally, we validated our results with experts who confirmed the promising possibilities of the framework. We encourage academics to continue developing research on mathematical modeling in the legal area as it is an emerging topic with a promising future and practitioners to use tools based as the proposed, as they provides substantial advantages in terms of accuracy and speed over conventional methods

Modelling of reliable service based operations support system (MORSBOSS)

Philosophiae Doctor - PhDThe underlying theme of this thesis is identification, classification, detection and prediction of cellular network faults using state of the art technologies, methods and algorithms

Investigating renewable energy systems using artifcial intelligence techniques

This research investigated applying Artificial Intelegence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) to renewable energy through three studies. The first study characterized and mapped the recent research landscape in the field of AI applications for various renewable energy systems using Natural Language Prcoessing (NLP) and ML models. It considered published documetns at Scopus database in the period (2000-2021). The second study built hybrid Catboost-CNN-LSTM architecture pipeline to predict an industrial-scale biogas plant’s daily biogas production and investigate the feedstock components importance on it. The third study investigated prediciting biogas yield of various subtrates and the significance of each organic component (carbohydrates, proteins, fats/lipids, and legnin) in biogas production using hybrid VAE-XGboost model. The first study showed seven main metatopics and ascent of "deep learning (DL)" as a prominent methodology led to an increase in intricate subjects, including the optimization of power costs and the prediction of wind patterns. Also, a growing utilization of DL approaches for the analysis of renewable energy data, particularly in the context of wind and solar photovoltaic systems. The research themes and trends observed in the first study signify substantial recent investments in advanced AI learning techniques. The developed Catboost-CNN-LSTM pipeline achived a significant results and presented a superior approach when compared to previous relevant studies by eliminating the requirement for feature engineering, enabling direct prediction of biogas yield without the need for converting it into a classification task. The VAE-XGboost pipeline could ovcercome data limitation in the field and produced significant results. It has shown that the "fats" category is the most influential group on the methane production in biogas plants, however, “proteins” illustrated the lowest impact on biogas production