3D Transition Matrix Solution for a Path Dependency Problem of Markov Chains-Based Prediction in Cellular Networks

Handover (HO) management is one of the critical challenges in current and future mobile communication systems due to new technologies being deployed at a network level, such as small and femtocells. Because of the smaller sizes of cells, users are expected to perform more frequent HOs, which can increase signaling costs and also decrease user's performance, if a HO is performed poorly. In order to address this issue, predictive HO techniques, such as Markov chains (MC), have been introduced in the literature due to their simplicity and generality. This technique, however, experiences a path dependency problem, specially when a user performs a HO to the same cell, also known as a re-visit. In this paper, the path dependency problem of this kind of predictors is tackled by introducing a new 3D transition matrix, which has an additional dimension representing the orders of HOs, instead of a conventional 2D one. Results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the classical MC based predictors both in terms of accuracy and HO cost when re-visits are considered

Introducing a Novel Minimum Accuracy Concept for Predictive Mobility Management Schemes

In this paper, an analytical model for the minimum required accuracy for predictive methods is derived in terms of both handover (HO) delay and HO signaling cost. After that, the total HO delay and signaling costs are derived for the worst-case scenario (when the predictive process has the same performance as the conventional one), and simulations are conducted using a cellular environment to reveal the importance of the proposed minimum accuracy framework. In addition to this, three different predictors; Markov Chains, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and an Improved ANN (IANN) are implemented and compared. The results indicate that under certain circumstances, the predictors can occasionally fall below the applicable level. Therefore, the proposed concept of minimum accuracy plays a vital role in determining this corresponding threshold

Robust measurement-based buffer overflow probability estimators for QoS provisioning and traffic anomaly prediction applications

Suitable estimators for a class of Large Deviation approximations of rare event probabilities based on sample realizations of random processes have been proposed in our earlier work. These estimators are expressed as non-linear multi-dimensional optimization problems of a special structure. In this paper, we develop an algorithm to solve these optimization problems very efficiently based on their characteristic structure. After discussing the nature of the objective function and constraint set and their peculiarities, we provide a formal proof that the developed algorithm is guaranteed to always converge. The existence of efficient and provably convergent algorithms for solving these problems is a prerequisite for using the proposed estimators in real time problems such as call admission control, adaptive modulation and coding with QoS constraints, and traffic anomaly detection in high data rate communication networks

Robust measurement-based buffer overflow probability estimators for QoS provisioning and traffic anomaly prediction applicationm

Suitable estimators for a class of Large Deviation approximations of rare event probabilities based on sample realizations of random processes have been proposed in our earlier work. These estimators are expressed as non-linear multi-dimensional optimization problems of a special structure. In this paper, we develop an algorithm to solve these optimization problems very efficiently based on their characteristic structure. After discussing the nature of the objective function and constraint set and their peculiarities, we provide a formal proof that the developed algorithm is guaranteed to always converge. The existence of efficient and provably convergent algorithms for solving these problems is a prerequisite for using the proposed estimators in real time problems such as call admission control, adaptive modulation and coding with QoS constraints, and traffic anomaly detection in high data rate communication networks

On the Inability of Markov Models to Capture Criticality in Human Mobility

We examine the non-Markovian nature of human mobility by exposing the inability of Markov models to capture criticality in human mobility. In particular, the assumed Markovian nature of mobility was used to establish a theoretical upper bound on the predictability of human mobility (expressed as a minimum error probability limit), based on temporally correlated entropy. Since its inception, this bound has been widely used and empirically validated using Markov chains. We show that recurrent-neural architectures can achieve significantly higher predictability, surpassing this widely used upper bound. In order to explain this anomaly, we shed light on several underlying assumptions in previous research works that has resulted in this bias. By evaluating the mobility predictability on real-world datasets, we show that human mobility exhibits scale-invariant long-range correlations, bearing similarity to a power-law decay. This is in contrast to the initial assumption that human mobility follows an exponential decay. This assumption of exponential decay coupled with Lempel-Ziv compression in computing Fano's inequality has led to an inaccurate estimation of the predictability upper bound. We show that this approach inflates the entropy, consequently lowering the upper bound on human mobility predictability. We finally highlight that this approach tends to overlook long-range correlations in human mobility. This explains why recurrent-neural architectures that are designed to handle long-range structural correlations surpass the previously computed upper bound on mobility predictability

Location prediction based on a sector snapshot for location-based services

In location-based services (LBSs), the service is provided based on the users' locations through location determination and mobility realization. Most of the current location prediction research is focused on generalized location models, where the geographic extent is divided into regular-shaped cells. These models are not suitable for certain LBSs where the objectives are to compute and present on-road services. Such techniques are the new Markov-based mobility prediction (NMMP) and prediction location model (PLM) that deal with inner cell structure and different levels of prediction, respectively. The NMMP and PLM techniques suffer from complex computation, accuracy rate regression, and insufficient accuracy. In this paper, a novel cell splitting algorithm is proposed. Also, a new prediction technique is introduced. The cell splitting is universal so it can be applied to all types of cells. Meanwhile, this algorithm is implemented to the Micro cell in parallel with the new prediction technique. The prediction technique, compared with two classic prediction techniques and the experimental results, show the effectiveness and robustness of the new splitting algorithm and prediction technique

Gossip Algorithms for Distributed Signal Processing

Gossip algorithms are attractive for in-network processing in sensor networks because they do not require any specialized routing, there is no bottleneck or single point of failure, and they are robust to unreliable wireless network conditions. Recently, there has been a surge of activity in the computer science, control, signal processing, and information theory communities, developing faster and more robust gossip algorithms and deriving theoretical performance guarantees. This article presents an overview of recent work in the area. We describe convergence rate results, which are related to the number of transmitted messages and thus the amount of energy consumed in the network for gossiping. We discuss issues related to gossiping over wireless links, including the effects of quantization and noise, and we illustrate the use of gossip algorithms for canonical signal processing tasks including distributed estimation, source localization, and compression.Comment: Submitted to Proceedings of the IEEE, 29 page

Adaptive sampling in context-aware systems: a machine learning approach

As computing systems become ever more pervasive, there is an increasing need for them to understand and adapt to the state of the environment around them: that is, their context. This understanding comes with considerable reliance on a range of sensors. However, portable devices are also very constrained in terms of power, and hence the amount of sensing must be minimised. In this paper, we present a machine learning architecture for context awareness which is designed to balance the sampling rates (and hence energy consumption) of individual sensors with the significance of the input from that sensor. This significance is based on predictions of the likely next context. The architecture is implemented using a selected range of user contexts from a collected data set. Simulation results show reliable context identification results. The proposed architecture is shown to significantly reduce the energy requirements of the sensors with minimal loss of accuracy in context identification

Mobility Prediction for Handover Management in Cellular Networks with Control/Data Separation

In research community, a new radio access network architecture with a logical separation between control plane (CP) and data plane (DP) has been proposed for future cellular systems. It aims to overcome limitations of the conventional architecture by providing high data rate services under the umbrella of a coverage layer in a dual connection mode. This configuration could provide significant savings in signalling overhead. In particular, mobility robustness with minimal handover (HO) signalling is considered as one of the most promising benefits of this architecture. However, the DP mobility remains an issue that needs to be investigated. We consider predictive DP HO management as a solution that could minimise the out-of-band signalling related to the HO procedure. Thus we propose a mobility prediction scheme based on Markov Chains. The developed model predicts the user's trajectory in terms of a HO sequence in order to minimise the interruption time and the associated signalling when the HO is triggered. Depending on the prediction accuracy, numerical results show that the predictive HO management strategy could significantly reduce the signalling cost as compared with the conventional non-predictive mechanism