A generalized risk approach to path inference based on hidden Markov models

Motivated by the unceasing interest in hidden Markov models (HMMs), this paper re-examines hidden path inference in these models, using primarily a risk-based framework. While the most common maximum a posteriori (MAP), or Viterbi, path estimator and the minimum error, or Posterior Decoder (PD), have long been around, other path estimators, or decoders, have been either only hinted at or applied more recently and in dedicated applications generally unfamiliar to the statistical learning community. Over a decade ago, however, a family of algorithmically defined decoders aiming to hybridize the two standard ones was proposed (Brushe et al., 1998). The present paper gives a careful analysis of this hybridization approach, identifies several problems and issues with it and other previously proposed approaches, and proposes practical resolutions of those. Furthermore, simple modifications of the classical criteria for hidden path recognition are shown to lead to a new class of decoders. Dynamic programming algorithms to compute these decoders in the usual forward-backward manner are presented. A particularly interesting subclass of such estimators can be also viewed as hybrids of the MAP and PD estimators. Similar to previously proposed MAP-PD hybrids, the new class is parameterized by a small number of tunable parameters. Unlike their algorithmic predecessors, the new risk-based decoders are more clearly interpretable, and, most importantly, work "out of the box" in practice, which is demonstrated on some real bioinformatics tasks and data. Some further generalizations and applications are discussed in conclusion.Comment: Section 5: corrected denominators of the scaled beta variables (pp. 27-30), => corrections in claims 1, 3, Prop. 12, bottom of Table 1. Decoder (49), Corol. 14 are generalized to handle 0 probabilities. Notation is more closely aligned with (Bishop, 2006). Details are inserted in eqn-s (43); the positivity assumption in Prop. 11 is explicit. Fixed typing errors in equation (41), Example

Quantum machine learning: a classical perspective

Recently, increased computational power and data availability, as well as algorithmic advances, have led machine learning techniques to impressive results in regression, classification, data-generation and reinforcement learning tasks. Despite these successes, the proximity to the physical limits of chip fabrication alongside the increasing size of datasets are motivating a growing number of researchers to explore the possibility of harnessing the power of quantum computation to speed-up classical machine learning algorithms. Here we review the literature in quantum machine learning and discuss perspectives for a mixed readership of classical machine learning and quantum computation experts. Particular emphasis will be placed on clarifying the limitations of quantum algorithms, how they compare with their best classical counterparts and why quantum resources are expected to provide advantages for learning problems. Learning in the presence of noise and certain computationally hard problems in machine learning are identified as promising directions for the field. Practical questions, like how to upload classical data into quantum form, will also be addressed.Comment: v3 33 pages; typos corrected and references adde

Big data analytics for time critical maritime and aerial mobility forecasting

The correlated exploitation of heterogeneous data sources offering very large archival and streaming data is important to increase the accuracy of computations when analysing and predicting future states of moving entities. Aiming to significantly advance the capacities of systems to improve safety and effectiveness of critical operations involving a large number of moving entities in large geographical areas, this paper describes progress achieved towards time critical big data analytics solutions to user-defined challenges in the air-traffic management and maritime domains. Besides, this paper presents further research challenges concerning data integration and management, predictive analytics for trajectory and events forecasting, and visual analytics

Bayesian inference of hydraulic properties in and around a white fir using a process-based ecohydrologic model

We present a parameter estimation study of the Soil-Tree-Atmosphere Continuum (STAC) model, a process-based model that simulates water flow through an individual tree and its surrounding root zone. Parameters are estimated to optimize the model fit to observations of sap flux, stem water potential, and soil water storage made for a white fir (Abies concolor) in the Sierra Nevada, California. Bayesian inference is applied with a likelihood function that considers temporal correlation of the model errors. Key vegetation properties are estimated, such as the tree\u27s root distribution, tolerance to drought, and hydraulic conductivity and retention functions. We find the model parameters are relatively non-identifiable when considering just soil water storage. Overall, by utilizing multiple processes (e.g. sap flow, stem water potential, and soil water storage) during the parameter estimation, we find the simulations of the soil and tree water properties to be more accurate when compared to observed data

Stochastic Modeling of Central Apnea Events in Preterm Infants

A near-ubiquitous pathology in very low birth weight infants is neonatal apnea, breathing pauses with slowing of the heart and falling blood oxygen. Events of substantial duration occasionally occur after an infant is discharged from the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). It is not known whether apneas result from a predictable process or from a stochastic process, but the observation that they occur in seemingly random clusters justifies the use of stochastic models. We use a hidden-Markov model to analyze the distribution of durations of apneas and the distribution of times between apneas. The model suggests the presence of four breathing states, ranging from very stable (with an average lifetime of 12 h) to very unstable (with an average lifetime of 10 s). Although the states themselves are not visible, the mathematical analysis gives estimates of the transition rates among these states. We have obtained these transition rates, and shown how they change with post-menstrual age; as expected, the residence time in the more stable breathing states increases with age. We also extrapolated the model to predict the frequency of very prolonged apnea during the first year of life. This paradigm-stochastic modeling of cardiorespiratory control in neonatal infants to estimate risk for severe clinical events-may be a first step toward personalized risk assessment for life threatening apnea events after NICU discharge