Detection and predictive modeling of chaos in finite hydrological time series

International audienceThe ability to detect the chaotic signal from a finite time series observation of hydrologic systems is addressed in this paper. The presence of random and seasonal components in hydrological time series, like rainfall or runoff, makes the detection process challenging. Tests with simulated data demonstrate the presence of thresholds, in terms of noise to chaotic-signal and seasonality to chaotic-signal ratios, beyond which the set of currently available tools is not able to detect the chaotic component. The investigations also indicate that the decomposition of a simulated time series into the corresponding random, seasonal and chaotic components is possible from finite data. Real streamflow data from the Arkansas and Colorado rivers are used to validate these results. Neither of the raw time series exhibits chaos. While a chaotic component can be extracted from the Arkansas data, such a component is either not present or can not be extracted from the Colorado data. This indicates that real hydrologic data may or may not have a detectable chaotic component. The strengths and limitations of the existing set of tools for the detection and modeling of chaos are also studied

Fractal Analysis and Chaos in Geosciences

The fractal analysis is becoming a very useful tool to process obtained data from chaotic systems in geosciences. It can be used to resolve many ambiguities in this domain. This book contains eight chapters showing the recent applications of the fractal/mutifractal analysis in geosciences. Two chapters are devoted to applications of the fractal analysis in climatology, two of them to data of cosmic and solar geomagnetic data from observatories. Four chapters of the book contain some applications of the (multi-) fractal analysis in exploration geophysics. I believe that the current book is an important source for researchers and students from universities

Evolution, Monitoring and Predicting Models of Rockburst: Precursor Information for Rock Failure

Load/unload response ratio predicting of rockburst; Three-dimensional reconstruction of fissured rock; Nonlinear dynamics evolution pattern of rock cracks; Bayesian model for predicting rockburs

Mining Safety and Sustainability I

Safety and sustainability are becoming ever bigger challenges for the mining industry with the increasing depth of mining. It is of great significance to reduce the disaster risk of mining accidents, enhance the safety of mining operations, and improve the efficiency and sustainability of development of mineral resource. This book provides a platform to present new research and recent advances in the safety and sustainability of mining. More specifically, Mining Safety and Sustainability presents recent theoretical and experimental studies with a focus on safety mining, green mining, intelligent mining and mines, sustainable development, risk management of mines, ecological restoration of mines, mining methods and technologies, and damage monitoring and prediction. It will be further helpful to provide theoretical support and technical support for guiding the normative, green, safe, and sustainable development of the mining industry

Solar Power System Plaing & Design

Photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) systems for the conversion of solar energy into electricity are technologically robust, scalable, and geographically dispersed, and they possess enormous potential as sustainable energy sources. Systematic planning and design considering various factors and constraints are necessary for the successful deployment of PV and CSP systems. This book on solar power system planning and design includes 14 publications from esteemed research groups worldwide. The research and review papers in this Special Issue fall within the following broad categories: resource assessments, site evaluations, system design, performance assessments, and feasibility studies

Advances in Computational Intelligence Applications in the Mining Industry

This book captures advancements in the applications of computational intelligence (artificial intelligence, machine learning, etc.) to problems in the mineral and mining industries. The papers present the state of the art in four broad categories: mine operations, mine planning, mine safety, and advances in the sciences, primarily in image processing applications. Authors in the book include both researchers and industry practitioners

Identification of Influential Climate Indicators, Prediction of Long-Term Streamflow and Great Salt Lake Elevation Using Machine Learning Approach

To meet the surging water demand due to rapid population growth and changing climatic conditions around the world, and to reduce the impact of floods and droughts, comprehensive water management and planning is necessary. Climatic variability, hydrologic uncertainty and variability of hydrologic quantities in time and space are inherent to hydrological modeling. Hydrologic modeling using a physically-based model can be very complex and typically requires detailed knowledge of physical processes. The availability of data is an important issue to justify the use of these models. Data-driven models are an alternative choice. This is a relatively new and efficient approach to modeling. Data-drive models bridge the gap between the classical regression and physically-based models. By using a data-driven model that relies on the machine learning approach, it is possible to produce reasonable predictions from a limited data set and limited knowledge of underlying physical processes of the system by just relating input and output. This dissertation uses the Multivariate Relevance Vector Machine (MVRVM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) for predicting a variety of hydrological quantities. These models are used in this dissertation for identifying influential climate indicators, and are used for long-term streamflow prediction for multiple lead times at different locations in Utah. They are also used for prediction of Great Salt Lake (GSL) elevation series. They provide reasonable predictions of hydrological quantities from the available data. The predictions from these models are robust and parsimonious. This research presents the first attempt to identify influential climate indicators and predict long lead-time streamflow in Utah, and to predict lake elevation using machine learning models. The approach presented herein has potential value for water resources planning and management especially for irrigation and flood management

Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods

This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods that was published in Wate

Is there chaos out there? : analysis of complex dynamics in plankton communities

Species often show irregular fluctuations in their population abundances. Traditionally, ecologists have thought that external processes (e.g., variability in weather conditions) are the main drivers of these ups and downs. However, recent theoretical work suggests that fluctuations in natural populations may also be driven by internal mechanisms (e.g., the interplay between species). In this thesis I use a combination of time series analysis and modeling to provide more insight into the question to which extent such internally generated chaos might drive the population dynamics of plankton communities under controlled as well as natural conditions. In short, this thesis demonstrates in theory and experiment that species in plankton communities may rise and fall forever in a chaotic way. This result challenges the traditional view that nature is at equilibrium and that only externally driven processes may disturb this equilibrium