Using Geographic Information to Explore Player-Specific Movement and its Effects on Play Success in the NFL

American Football is a billion-dollar industry in the United States. The analytical aspect of the sport is an ever-growing domain, with open-source competitions like the NFL Big Data Bowl accelerating this growth. With the amount of player movement during each play, tracking data can prove valuable in many areas of football analytics. While concussion detection, catch recognition, and completion percentage prediction are all existing use cases for this data, player-specific movement attributes, such as speed and agility, may be helpful in predicting play success. This research calculates player-specific speed and agility attributes from tracking data and supplements them with descriptive factors to produce a quality data set that, with machine learning models, can lead to accurate predictions of success on a play-by-play basis. A neural network was trained to predict play success with an F1 score of 40%. Therefore, the true effect of the inclusion of player movement attributes in predicting play success appears to have a minimal effect, but additional data and future research may be needed to confirm that

Exploiting Opponent Modeling For Learning In Multi-agent Adversarial Games

An issue with learning effective policies in multi-agent adversarial games is that the size of the search space can be prohibitively large when the actions of both teammates and opponents are considered simultaneously. Opponent modeling, predicting an opponent’s actions in advance of execution, is one approach for selecting actions in adversarial settings, but it is often performed in an ad hoc way. In this dissertation, we introduce several methods for using opponent modeling, in the form of predictions about the players’ physical movements, to learn team policies. To explore the problem of decision-making in multi-agent adversarial scenarios, we use our approach for both offline play generation and real-time team response in the Rush 2008 American football simulator. Simultaneously predicting the movement trajectories, future reward, and play strategies of multiple players in real-time is a daunting task but we illustrate how it is possible to divide and conquer this problem with an assortment of data-driven models. By leveraging spatio-temporal traces of player movements, we learn discriminative models of defensive play for opponent modeling. With the reward information from previous play matchups, we use a modified version of UCT (Upper Conference Bounds applied to Trees) to create new offensive plays and to learn play repairs to counter predicted opponent actions. iii In team games, players must coordinate effectively to accomplish tasks while foiling their opponents either in a preplanned or emergent manner. An effective team policy must generate the necessary coordination, yet considering all possibilities for creating coordinating subgroups is computationally infeasible. Automatically identifying and preserving the coordination between key subgroups of teammates can make search more productive by pruning policies that disrupt these relationships. We demonstrate that combining opponent modeling with automatic subgroup identification can be used to create team policies with a higher average yardage than either the baseline game or domain-specific heuristics

Survey on Vision-based Path Prediction

Path prediction is a fundamental task for estimating how pedestrians or vehicles are going to move in a scene. Because path prediction as a task of computer vision uses video as input, various information used for prediction, such as the environment surrounding the target and the internal state of the target, need to be estimated from the video in addition to predicting paths. Many prediction approaches that include understanding the environment and the internal state have been proposed. In this survey, we systematically summarize methods of path prediction that take video as input and and extract features from the video. Moreover, we introduce datasets used to evaluate path prediction methods quantitatively.Comment: DAPI 201

Using Opponent Modeling to Adapt Team Play in American Football

An issue with learning effective policies in multi-agent adversarial games is that the size of the search space can be prohibitively large when the actions of both teammates and opponents are considered simultaneously. Opponent modeling, predicting an opponent’s actions in advance of execution, is one approach for selecting actions in adversarial settings, but it is often performed in an ad hoc way. In this chapter, we introduce several methods for using opponent modeling, in the form of predictions about the players ’ physical movements, to learn team policies. To explore the problem of decision-making in multi-agent adversarial scenarios, we use our approach for both offline play generation and real-time team response in the Rush 2008 American football simulator. Simultaneously predicting the movement trajectories, future reward, and play strategies of mul-tiple players in real-time is a daunting task but we illustrate how it is possible to divide and conquer this problem with an assortment of data-driven models

Algorithms for the Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Data from Team Sports

Modern object tracking systems are able to simultaneously record trajectories—sequences of time-stamped location points—for large numbers of objects with high frequency and accuracy. The availability of trajectory datasets has resulted in a consequent demand for algorithms and tools to extract information from these data. In this thesis, we present several contributions intended to do this, and in particular, to extract information from trajectories tracking football (soccer) players during matches. Football player trajectories have particular properties that both facilitate and present challenges for the algorithmic approaches to information extraction. The key property that we look to exploit is that the movement of the players reveals information about their objectives through cooperative and adversarial coordinated behaviour, and this, in turn, reveals the tactics and strategies employed to achieve the objectives. While the approaches presented here naturally deal with the application-specific properties of football player trajectories, they also apply to other domains where objects are tracked, for example behavioural ecology, traffic and urban planning

MX-LSTM: mixing tracklets and vislets to jointly forecast trajectories and head poses

Recent approaches on trajectory forecasting use tracklets to predict the future positions of pedestrians exploiting Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) architectures. This paper shows that adding vislets, that is, short sequences of head pose estimations, allows to increase significantly the trajectory forecasting performance. We then propose to use vislets in a novel framework called MX-LSTM, capturing the interplay between tracklets and vislets thanks to a joint unconstrained optimization of full covariance matrices during the LSTM backpropagation. At the same time, MX-LSTM predicts the future head poses, increasing the standard capabilities of the long-term trajectory forecasting approaches. With standard head pose estimators and an attentional-based social pooling, MX-LSTM scores the new trajectory forecasting state-of-the-art in all the considered datasets (Zara01, Zara02, UCY, and TownCentre) with a dramatic margin when the pedestrians slow down, a case where most of the forecasting approaches struggle to provide an accurate solution.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures to appear in CVPR 201